How Raila's entry into government could spell doom for DP Gachagua

The nightmare is real. The dark cloud Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua had talked of seeing two months back seems to have materialised and is now blackening his political future.

Following the rapprochement between Opposition leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, four Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) top officials are now in Cabinet, and the onslaught against the Deputy President has started.

Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri Thursday accused Gachagua of antagonising the President to the point of forcing him to reconstitute his Cabinet and seeking the help of Raila to govern the country.

“The dissolution of Cabinet was precipitated by leaders who kept complaining that the region was not benefiting from the positions of Cabinet secretaries, claiming they were powerless. It was not about Generation Z protests; they painted a picture of a dissatisfied lot, and the internal wars is what led to the formation of a government of national unity,” Mr Kiunjuri said.

He claimed Ruto’s move was not informed by the urge to be inclusive "because even in the dissolved Cabinet, Aisha Jumwa, Ababu Namwamba and Eliud Owalo represented the rest of the communities in the country".

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Home guards

“Narratives and name-calling such as home guards, collaborators and sellouts without coming out clear who we were betraying in the region led to Ruto forming the government of national unity with Raila.., when a hyena breaks into a pen and devours the goat, you can’t blame the hyena but the owner of the goat. Raila can’t be blamed for forming a government with Ruto, it is us to blame,” he said.

Kiunjuri said the community needed to evaluate if Mt Kenya region was being fought politically or whether one person was advancing his self-seeking overtures. "Over 60 MPs from Mt Kenya region can't be fools to cling onto Ruto. If we were to announce our exit from government, that is the only time we could say Mt Kenya region has gone out of government."

He further accused some politicians from Mt Kenya region of sponsoring protests to advance their political ambitions. He suggested that Gen Z had their version of 'Occupy Parliament' but there were people who were allegedly paid to attempt to overthrow the government.

“The office that funded the protests is known by the government. A pig fries itself with its own fat,” he said, without naming the four MPs allegedly involved.

The former CS noted that the anti-government protests were primarily concentrated in the Mt Kenya region. “It was the first time seeing protests infiltrate smaller towns such as Nyeri and Nanyuki. In other regions, like Rift Valley, protests occurred in towns like Eldoret but not in the interior parts of the region,” he said. 

During his tour of Mt Kenya Thursday, President Ruto defended his move to incorporate members of ODM into his administration, a move that has elicited mixed reactions across the country

The President, who spoke in Tharaka Nithi County, said there was need for all leaders, irrespective of their political affiliations, to come together to help tackle the country's problems.

Unite Kenyans

“Because of the problems that we have in our country, I have decided that there is no need to continue sidelining other people. I have decided to form a government that will unite all Kenyans because we pay debts together, look for taxes together and initiate development together,” he said.

He was accompanied by Gachagua, Interior Cabinet Secretary nominee Kindiki Kithure, Governor Muthomi Njuki and Senator George Murugara, among several other leaders.

On Wednesday, Ruto picked Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy), John Mbadi (Treasury), Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), all from ODM.

While naming the first half of his Cabinet nominees, Ruto said a wider range of ideas, programmes and interventions were needed to facilitate job creation, robust debt management, enhance transparency and accountability in the use of public resources, mobilise more domestic resources and optimise public expenditure.

The President said Kenya’s credentials as a democratic nation had been severely tested. “During this time, the country has engaged in a difficult public conversation, providing an opportunity to reflect on the relationship between fundamental rights and democratic freedoms, our collective aspirations for prosperity and efforts to secure opportunities for all, and the imperative to advance the security of the State."

Gachagua has previously earned the president's wrath for his 'shareholding' calls where he demanded that the government concentrate its resources in regions that voted for the Ruto. 

Elsewhere, lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi waded into the issue of the broad-based government, claiming Gachagua will be the biggest casualty in the new Cabinet. 

"DP Gachagua is a dead man walking! He is a fatally wounded man and I think he will die of his wounds before 2027. Even though 37% of the cabinet are from Mt Kenya, none remotely owes any allegiance to him.

"In fact, he doesn't have a single ally in the Cabinet. To say the man from Mathira is on his political death throes is not an exaggeration of his dire political fortunes. Further, President Ruto by bringing ODM into his government has created a stronger rival in government.

"This coupled with the elevated stature of Mudavadi simply makes Gachagua's position plainly untenable. I want to maintain some "constructive ambiguity" but to have a draft copy of the political obituary of Gachagua ready for publication at short notice isn't that outlandish," Ahmednasir wrote on his X account. 

For the last seven months, Gachagua has been apprehensive of Raila joining the government. In February last year, he said that he would "sleep with one eye open like a torch to ensure his interests are not sabotaged" and vowed never to allow Raila to join government because "when a snake bites you, you always jump when you find a rope".

Political tribulations

His remarks were in reference to the political tribulations Ruto went through when Raila signed a unity pact with Uhuru in 2018 amidst claims of Mt Kenya being sidelined by the ‘handshake government’.

In October last year,  Gachagua warned Ruto that Mt Kenya was wary saying, “And since we are wise people, one thing we dislike is betrayal. If you betray us, we will hate you.”

On September 22, during the burial ceremony of liberation heroine Muthoni Kirima,  Gachagua had warned that the region, despite being of different political affiliations, would unite whenever its interests were threatened.

Whether Gachagua’s claims and prophecies had anything to do with Raila’s entry into Ruto’s government remains to be seen. But political commentators contend that he will be the biggest casualty in the Raila-Ruto alliance even as others believe he is the biggest winner so far in the coalition government.

“Out of the 21 members of the Cabinet, our region got seven out of the eight we had in the first Cabinet, which is fairly commensurate with our vote. Now that the President is together, we would want them to continue working together as a pair just as we elected them,” Nyeri Governor Murahi Kahiga told The Standard on phone.

But Prof Gitile Naituli, a political and governance expert, believes the Ruto-Raila handshake is aimed at cutting Gachagua down to size.

Neutralise Gachagua

“Ruto finds himself with internal (Gachagua) and external (Raila) political enemies and this will be aimed at neutralising Gachagua who will have little say in the government appointments. But although Gachagua is tamed, he could also be having his own scheme of how to defend his position. This too could destabilise the handshake,” Prof Naituli noted.

And even as Naituli claimed Gachagua may be cut down to size, a section of youthful leaders in Mt Kenya region had ganged up against Gachagua. On June 12 this year, the Opposition MPs criticised Gachagua for using commercial airlines while heading to Mombasa with Wandayi offering to help the Kenya Kwanza administration get rid of the deputy president.

Charles Njoroge, a political expert, said the alliance between Raila and Ruto could easily help Gachagua’s critics file an impeachment motion against him, which could easily pass.

He, however, noted that this "could catapult Gachagua to the national limelight and make him earn sympathy, which could see him form a formidable political alliance with other leaders for the 2027 General Election”.

Mr Njoroge said that Gachagua’s rapprochement with Kalonzo last month could be informed by the intensive political arrangement that only became public after Ruto announced his broad-based government.