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Optimization of Scoring Rules

Published: 13 July 2022 Publication History

Abstract

This paper introduces an objective for optimizing proper scoring rules. The objective is to maximize the increase in payoff of a forecaster who exerts a binary level of effort to refine a posterior belief from a prior belief. In this framework we characterize optimal scoring rules in simple settings, give efficient algorithms for computing optimal scoring rules in complex settings, and identify simple scoring rules that are approximately optimal. In comparison, standard scoring rules in theory and practice -- for example the quadratic rule, scoring rules for the expectation, and scoring rules for multiple tasks that are averages of single-task scoring rules -- can be very far from optimal.

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cover image ACM Conferences
EC '22: Proceedings of the 23rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation
July 2022
1269 pages
ISBN:9781450391504
DOI:10.1145/3490486
Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for third-party components of this work must be honored. For all other uses, contact the Owner/Author.

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Association for Computing Machinery

New York, NY, United States

Publication History

Published: 13 July 2022

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Author Tags

  1. mechanism design
  2. optimization
  3. scoring rules

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  • Extended-abstract

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EC '22
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Overall Acceptance Rate 664 of 2,389 submissions, 28%

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