PITNEY BOWES PARCEL SHIPPING INDEX
Index Reveals Significant Shifts in Carrier Dynamics and Consumer Behaviors in 2023
Over the last 7 years, US parcel market has been growing in volume at 9% average rate, with revenue growth at 10% ‘17-’23 CAGR, and revenue per parcel at 1%. We forecast US parcel volume growth to shift from double-digit to single-digit and reach between 23B and 35B by 2029, with mostly likely scenario of 29B with 5% CAGR ‘24-’29.
Carrier volumes
US Parcel volume didn’t change significantly from 2022. It was up 0.5% from 21.5 billion in 2022 to 21.7 billion in 2023. Volume of all carriers except for Amazon Logistics and others declined.
The USPS generated the highest parcel volume reaching 6.6 billion parcels, down almost 1% (0.9% to be exact) from last year. Amazon Logistics generated 5.9 billion parcels, up 15.7% from 2022. UPS saw a decline of 10.3%, to 4.6 billion parcels. FedEx declined from 4.1 billion in 2022 to 3.9 billion in 2023 (down 6.1%). Others grew 28.5% in 2023 from 0.4 to 0.6 billion parcels. 2023 is the first time in the Index history that Amazon Logistics surpasses UPS in parcel volume.
In 2023, US parcel revenue declined slightly for the first time in 7 years by -0.3% from $198.4B in 2022 to $197.9B, reflecting high capacity built after the pandemic and intense competition. UPS and FedEx saw a decline in revenue while the USPS, Amazon Logistics and the ‘others’ category saw an increase in revenue. Amazon Logistics gained share from 12% in 2022 to 14% in 2023, UPS and FedEx lost revenue share.
Market share
- UPS has the largest parcel revenue market share, with 35% of the market, a 2 percentage points decrease from 2022, followed by FedEx with 32% share
- USPS maintained their revenue market share at 16%
- Amazon Logistics increased two percentage points to 14%
- The ‘Others’ category comprised of smaller carriers increased from 2.1 to 2.8%
- USPS continues to have the largest market share (31%)
- For the first time in the Index history, Amazon Logistics becomes the second provider with the largest market share (27%) surpassing UPS
- UPS falls to third place with 21% of the market share
- The ‘Others’ category increased their share from 2% to almost 3% of the market