FRISCO, Texas — Will the Dallas Cowboys suffer a hangover? When a team collapses like Dallas did in that inexcusable wild-card beatdown in January, it makes you wonder if it can just pick up where it left off after three consecutive 12-win seasons. Add in the likely possibility that Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy will be working in the final year of their contracts and it’s realistic to think the franchise could take a significant step back.
But you wouldn’t get that feeling from being around the team over the past seven weeks. I mean, look at McCarthy and Prescott running out to practice Thursday.
Everyone seems to be in a good mood pic.twitter.com/tCfyyGC98d
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 5, 2024
This seems like a group that has moved on from the disappointment of that Green Bay Packers loss and is focused on building with another double-digit-win season. Even if that happens, the Cowboys will be judged on the results in January. For now, though, all signs point to this again being one of the top teams in the NFC.
Advertisement
Here are some other thoughts I had after watching the Cowboys over the past month and a half.
Running back situation
As the Cowboys open the season, Ezekiel Elliott is listed as running back No. 1 on the depth chart. Elliott will likely take the field with the first-team offense Sunday on the road against the Cleveland Browns. But Rico Dowdle, who is No. 2 on the depth chart, is my pick to lead the team in rushing. He showed noticeable juice and looked like an improved pass catcher. Dowdle is three years younger than Elliott and has had 1,969 fewer NFL rushing attempts and 339 fewer receptions. The plan is for Elliott to be as fresh as possible entering December. To do that, Dowdle will need to handle the larger load. This isn’t to say he will have a significant advantage in touches and yards, but look for him to have more. My projection is something like Dowdle getting 13 to 15 rushing attempts per game and Elliott getting closer to 10 to 12. Elliott averaged a career-low 10.8 carries per game last season with the New England Patriots. He averaged 15 per game during his 2022 season in Dallas.
Stepping up in the passing game
We know CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are the favorites to be Dallas’ top three pass catchers. But who’s next in line? Jalen Brooks had a strong finish to training camp. KaVontae Turpin should see an increase in touches. But Jalen Tolbert is my pick to be the No. 4 guy. His time with Prescott in the offseason was probably the key. As Prescott pointed out during camp, the player who spends the most time with him in the offseason usually goes on to have a huge year. Though that was Lamb and Cedrick Wilson Jr. in previous years, this year it was Tolbert. “My trust is super, super high in him,” Prescott said. “I trust him with any route, wherever it is, against whoever.” Tolbert went from two catches in his rookie season to 22 last year. My prediction for this year is 35 to 40.
GO DEEPER
Why things could be heading to this being Dak Prescott's last season with Cowboys
Pass rush help
Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are the two players every team will be game planning to slow down. Parsons is still ascending. He might have his best season, as new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has been moving him around more than ever. Lawrence is still playing at a high level. But who will step in for the losses of Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr.? Sam Williams was supposed to be leading that charge until he suffered a season-ending knee injury early in camp. Fortunately for the Cowboys, rookie Marshawn Kneeland appears ready to step into that No. 3 spot. Parsons and Lawrence have raved about him over the past month. Although he never had more than 4 1/2 sacks during a college season, Kneeland is my pick to finish second on the team in sacks with 6 1/2. Armstrong was second last year with 7 1/2. He was second the year before that with 8 1/2.
Advertisement
How many more years?
This year has the feeling of being Zack Martin’s last. The nine-time Pro Bowler has not wanted to discuss the topic lately, but he’d probably like to go out playing at a high level. He’s still doing that as he enters the final year of his contract. Of course, things could change depending on how this season unfolds, but that’s just the feeling I get. I don’t get the same feeling from Lawrence, who was also in the 2014 NFL Draft class. He’s also entering the final year of his current deal, but he’d probably prefer playing a couple more years.
One of my favorite things about covering the Cowboys is doing these “One Star Cowboys Podcast” shows throughout the week with @SaadYousuf126, @ktfuntweets and @KentGarrison.
Here’s our annual season preview! Please give it a listen! https://t.co/q6izSHce4v
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) September 4, 2024
Speaking of the offensive line …
What should we expect from this group that moved on from veterans Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz and replaced them with rookies Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe? Right tackle Terence Steele summed things up this way when I asked him this week: “We’re a physical bunch. Most of us are pretty young. We’re hungry. We come off the ball flying. It’s going to be fun.” The style of training camp practices doesn’t provide a great feel for how well an offensive line will play entering a season. They’re trying to get ready for the season, but they’re also doing everything they can to stay off the ground. NFL games are more physical, so we’ll know a lot more Sunday afternoon. But my guess is that if this group stays healthy, it can eventually be just as good, if not better than last year. There will be growing pains, but they appear to have hit on their starting left tackle and starting center of the future.
Deuce Vaughn
The Cowboys have done a great job of not showing their hand regarding the new kickoff rule. With John Fassel calling the shots, there are going to be surprises. Turpin should benefit. But I wonder how much Vaughn will get involved in that area. He has been working on returning in practice. I’m not sure how often it will happen early, but I wonder how much Fassel will try to draw up creative returns that involve Vaughn and Turpin.
GO DEEPER
NFL execs rank NFC teams: 49ers still reign, but could the Packers overtake the Lions?
Rookies
The Cowboys didn’t want to start the season without DaRon Bland. A trio of Bland, Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis should give Zimmer a lot of confidence about the back end of his defense. Dallas won’t see that group together until at least Week 5. But rookie Caelen Carson seems up to the challenge of being thrown into the starting lineup. I’m not saying he’s going to be the next Bland, but it looks like the Cowboys have found another starting-caliber cornerback late in the draft. Carson jumped out often in camp. Don’t be surprised if he holds his own Sunday. He’ll likely get tested early. It was noticeable in camp how much of an impact rookies like Carson, Guyton, Beebe, Kneeland and Marist Liufau could have immediately. There wasn’t that feeling about last year’s rookie class at this time. Before getting injured, DeMarvion Overshown was the only member of that rookie class who seemed ready to make a big impact in Year 1. This year’s rookie class feels more like 2020, when Lamb, Diggs, Biadasz and Neville Gallimore all played notable roles in Year 1.
(Top photo: Brad Mills / USA Today)
