What futures do Tyus Jones and Malcolm Brogdon have with the Washington Wizards?
Did the Wizards decide to sign Jonas Valančiūnas simply to trade him?
And why did the team decide to re-sign Tristan Vukcevic to a two-way contract instead of to a standard contract?
Those are some of the questions you asked me in recent days. I answer all of those questions — and more — in this edition of The Athletic’s Wizards mailbag.
(Editor’s note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and grammar.)
Tyus Jones and Malcolm Brogdon. What’s the word with them? –@WorldwideHaven
What will happen and when will we see an update for Tyus, Marvin Bagley III, Landry Shamet and possibly Brogdon? –@guterballl
Malcolm Brogdon is highly likely to begin the regular season with the Wizards. All that talk about Washington intending to immediately re-route Brogdon after Deni Avdija’s trade to Portland was premature. Brogdon can still play effectively, and he did a good job last season as a mentor to the Trail Blazers’ youngsters. Wizards executives see a benefit to having him on the roster.
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Does that mean Brogdon will finish the 2024-25 season with Washington? That remains to be seen, but he could be dealt elsewhere before the February trade deadline. As long as he remains healthy, he should draw interest in a trade because he’s entering the final year of his contract and because contending teams might need guard help by that time.
All indications are that it’s unlikely Tyus Jones will return to the Wizards. He entered unrestricted free agency looking for a starting point guard role and the free-agent money that comes with it, and the Wizards have a crowded guard rotation with Jordan Poole, Brogdon and No. 14 pick Bub Carrington. One of the reasons why Brogdon should be valuable as a stabilizing veteran is that Jones likely won’t be back.
It would be a shame if Jones signs elsewhere because Wizards officials and players respect him on and off the court. He would be an ideal veteran to help youngsters adjust to the league. Meanwhile, I’d be getting a bit antsy if I were in Jones’ shoes. I expected him to have a commitment to sign elsewhere before now.
Bagley, who is entering the final year of his contract, is very likely to begin the season with Washington, despite the team’s crowded big-man rotation. Richaun Holmes, who is eligible to be traded now, is also likely to begin the season on Washington’s roster.
As for Landry Shamet, the Wizards waived him Saturday afternoon, before his $11 million salary for the upcoming season became guaranteed.
Do the Wiz have a number that they consider positive movement versus impacting the “tank”? This is highly unlikely, but if the team puts itself on a path of winning 30 or more games, do they trade or sit players to prevent that? And at what point of the season is this decision made? –@DWS62
This is a great question.
I’m going to be as clear as I possibly can be: No matter how competent the team’s new front office already has been, the results of the 2025 and 2026 draft lotteries could make or break the rebuild. Those lotteries will be that important. I cannot overstate that enough.
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Every single executive and scout from rival teams I’ve spoken with about the Wizards agree: Washington will need some lottery luck for its rebuild to work.
Why? Although team officials will do everything they can to help develop 19-year-old Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr (19) and Bub Carrington (18) into the best possible versions of themselves — and Coulibaly, Sarr and Carrington have high ceilings — it’s unclear whether any of them will become stars. Coulibaly has a lot of work to do to become a high-level player on offense. As good as Sarr and Carrington might become, it’s important to remember the top of the 2024 draft was said to be the most devoid of franchise-changing prospects in recent memory.
The 2025 draft is projected to have five top-flight talents: Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe, Dylan Harper and Nolan Traoré. As David Aldridge wrote, drafting Flagg would change everything for the Wizards, and any of the other four would also become the most talented player on the Wizards’ roster the moment he steps into Capital One Arena.
There’s a lot of time before the 2025 draft, and the list of can’t-miss prospects could expand or contract over the next 11-plus months. But if Flagg, Bailey, Edgecombe, Harper and Traore remain so highly regarded, and if no one else joins them as a top-tier NBA prospect, the Wizards should approach the 2024-25 season accordingly.
Because of the way the league allots the lottery odds and how the lottery works, the Wizards should do everything they can to maximize their chances to ensure their pick does not fall outside the top five. The only way a team can guarantee itself a top-five pick is to finish with the league’s worst overall record. The second-worst team, while still likely to nab a top-five pick, will have a 20 percent chance of receiving the sixth pick. The third-worst team, while also still likely to obtain a top-five pick, will have a 26 percent chance of drafting sixth and a seven-percent chance of drafting seventh.
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In my opinion, even a 20 percent chance of drafting outside the top five in next year’s draft is too great a risk for the Wizards unless one or two other players join Flagg, Bailey, Edgecombe, Harper and Traoré as top-flight prospects.
Wizards executives almost certainly would disagree with me if you were to ask them about this. They would say that intentionally trying to lose and constant losing is corrosive to the development of young players.
All of that is correct. I saw that firsthand during the outset of the Orlando Magic’s rebuild during the 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons. Aaron Gordon, Tobias Harris, Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vučević, Evan Fournier, Maurice Harkless and Elfrid Payton did not develop as quickly as they should have.
But even if the Wizards finish the next two seasons dead last in the league standings, team officials can find ways to keep Coulibaly, Sarr, Carrington, Kyshawn George and Tristan Vukčević on the right track.
Last season, general manager Will Dawkins put in place a sophisticated player-development approach that helped Coulibaly, Avdija and Corey Kispert, among others. Head coach Brian Keefe showed he can hold players accountable during his time as Washington’s interim coach, and he must continue to do that. And the Wizards need to have veteran players who not only provide positive examples but also play well enough to help the youngsters function on the court.
If the number of high-tier prospects for the 2025 draft somehow contracts over the next 11 months to three or four can’t-miss guys instead of five, then the pressure on the Wizards to bottom out completely next season will somewhat diminish. In that scenario, finishing with any one of the league’s three worst records would be OK, because the teams with the three-worst records have the exact same odds to win either the first, second, third or fourth picks in the draft.
The Wizards will keep a close watch on the 2025 draft class and should react accordingly during the 2024-25 season. But to answer your specific question, there’s no way the Wizards will threaten to approach the 30-win mark under any circumstances.
Will the Wizards be in the bottom five of the 2024-25 standings to make certain they’ll retain their first-round pick in the 2025 draft? –@12thman___
You’re smart to wonder about this!
This question stems from the first-round draft pick the Wizards still owe from a trade they made in 2020 with the Houston Rockets. In that deal, Washington received Russell Westbrook for John Wall and a protected first-round pick. (Since then, the Rockets re-routed that pick to the New York Knicks.)
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In 2023, that pick was lottery-protected. In 2024, it was top-12 protected.
For 2025, it’s top-10 protected. That means Washington will keep its own first-round pick in the 2025 draft if it’s anywhere from No. 1 through No. 10. And this is where the league standings and the lottery system come into play. Any team with one of the league’s six-worst records cannot exit the lottery with anything worse than the 10th overall pick.
I’ll put it this way: There is no chance the Wizards will convey that pick in 2025, because the Wizards almost certainly will finish with one of the league’s six-worst records.
The 2026 draft is the last one in which Washington might convey its first-round pick to New York. The pick is top-eight protected for that draft, and a team with one of the league’s four-worst records can draft no worse than eighth. A team with the league’s fifth-worst record would have a 0.6 percent chance of obtaining the No. 9 pick.
Unless the Wizards draft an immediate superstar in 2025 — and perhaps even Flagg or Bailey won’t be that good as rookies — I expect the Wizards to finish the 2025-26 season with a bottom-five record.
I’d be shocked if Washington conveys a first-round pick to New York.
Also what happens with Johnny Davis now? I don’t see a path for playing time –@SCAR703
I agree. As long as the players ahead of him on the depth chart remain healthy, I don’t see a path for Johnny to receive playing time.
A key decision on Davis’ future looms just before the start of the regular season. That’s the deadline for team officials to decide whether they’ll exercise their $6.7 million team option on Davis for the 2025-26 season, which would be the fourth and final season of Davis’ rookie-scale contract.
The Wizards also will have to make a decision on the fourth year of Patrick Baldwin’s rookie-scale deal.
Can Tristan Vukcevic be “picked off” by another team if offered a full-time roster spot (like a practice squad player in the NFL)? –@12thman___
Why did the Wizards sign Vukcevic to a two-way contract instead of a standard contract? –@IDontSingh1
Vukčević can’t join another team as long as he remains on a two-way contract with the Wizards.
Team officials wanted to keep a spot open on the team’s 15-man standard roster, and with the glut of bigs already here, Vukčević was already likely to spend lots of time with the Capital Go-Go.
Keep in mind, too, that a team can unilaterally convert its own two-way contract player to a standard contract. A team also can negotiate multiyear standard contracts with its own two-way contract players.
I’m guessing here, but I suspect Vukčević will end the 2024-25 season on a standard contract.
Can you confirm if the Wizards are using the Monté Morris trade exception for the first year of the Jonas Valančiūnas signing? –@jansjay
The Wizards will use the $9.8 million trade exception they created in the Monté Morris deal to account for the impending signing of Jonas Valančiūnas. Accounting for Valančiūnas in this fashion will preserve the entirety of the Wizards’ $12.8 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception in the next seven months to bring in a player (and preferably also a draft pick) via trade. That nontaxpayer midlevel exception ultimately might not be used, but it’s valuable to preserve that flexibility in case a trade opportunity arises to add a player and, more importantly, a future draft pick.
Any compensation, such as a future draft pick, that goes from Washington to New Orleans in the Valančiūnas sign-and-trade almost certainly will be so minimal that it will not negatively impact Washington’s rebuild. It probably will be something along the lines of a top-55 protected pick.
Seems to me that the signing of Jonas Valančiūnas is a clever way to ship him to an over-the-cap team in February, while still allowing the over-the-cap team to use their midlevel exception now. Is that the thinking here? –@davidmclary
I like how strategically you’re thinking, David.
But that’s not the reason the Wizards are going to add Valančiūnas. They’re adding Valančiūnas because he’ll prevent Sarr, who weighs only 225 pounds, from having to match up against the league’s most rugged, bruising centers in the short term. Valančiūnas also will improve the team’s defensive rebounding, which was a terrible weakness for Washington last season, and, as ESPN’s Kevin Pelton pointed out, will be an effective screener.
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Finally, Valančiūnas’ strong veteran presence should make up for losing Jones’ strong veteran presence — even though they play different positions and even though Brogdon will help, too.
Valančiūnas ultimately could be traded down the line to a contending team that will have used its midlevel exception, and that scenario could help the Wizards. But that wasn’t the Wizards’ primary (or even secondary) reason for signing Valančiūnas.
Let Valančiūnas teach Sarr and Vukčević how to play, but why sign Valančiūnas to a three-year contract? –@OBtoojiveforyou
Perhaps offering a three-year contract was the only way the Wizards could convince Valančiūnas to join them. Also, while it’s correct that his contract does not include any team option or player option, a league source told The Athletic that the third year of Valančiūnas’ deal is non-guaranteed.
I read many articles and posts explaining the Wizards decided to sign Valančiūnas, but none about why Valančiūnas chose the Wiz. Why was this a good decision for him? –@moewilliams7596
He’ll have the opportunity to answer that question for himself, because he’ll be asked that question when he speaks to the media.
I suspect that, at 32 years old, he likes the idea of a three-year deal.
(Top photo of Tyus Jones: Rhona Wise / USA Today)
