If you doubted the Edmonton Oilers were changing direction in talent procurement, the 2024 NHL Draft hit like a hammer.
It began early, in the first round on Friday.
The club traded for the No. 32 pick, grabbed a 200-foot centre with a defensive mindset and an agitating style, and in doing so set the team’s prospect pool on its ear.
Advertisement
There’s a new draft and development template, and the tip of the spear is this weekend.
Look for physical players who can win battles, and less speed and skill. The Oilers are going to be rugged again.
Early indicators
During the 2023-24 AHL season, the Bakersfield Condors used two rookies in substantial roles. Defenceman Max Wanner and centre Jayden Grubbe played big minutes, and did so over other young players who brought more talent when in possession of the puck.
It was a tell.
It also worked out well, as both men delivered impressive on-ice outscoring totals at even strength.
The best example is Wanner, who played a feature role and outperformed many of the team’s veterans. This is an unusual spot for a rookie on the AHL defence outscoring list (even strength).
| Player | EV GF-GA | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|
39-28 | 58 | |
40-32 | 56 | |
54-42 | 55 | |
38-32 | 54 | |
54-46 | 50 | |
21-20 | 51 | |
44-44 | 50 |
For a rookie defenceman to play top minutes and help his team outscore opponents at a high level is impressive. Evan Bouchard, now an impact player and a fine NHL outscorer at even strength, was 41-51 as an even-strength player in his AHL rookie season. Bouchard is a much different player in style, but the metric stands.
Wanner had an impact in pro hockey out of the box. He is unlikely to play in the NHL next season, but his robust style (Wanner is filthy) fits the new direction the Oilers are clearly heading in at this time.
Recent indicators
On Friday, Edmonton traded up for right-handed centre Sam O’Reilly. He projects as a two-way centre who can play a rugged game and contest all opposition advances. O’Reilly is the first forward chosen by Edmonton in the first round who can reasonably be called a “middle-six” prospect since Reid Schaefer. He is the first centre of this type to be chosen in the first round since Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011, although that comparable has difficulties — Nugent-Hopkins is a more talented offensive player and is not an agitator.
Advertisement
The compromises the Oilers made in drafting O’Reilly (foot speed and pure skill) are another tell about what the farm team in Bakersfield will look like next season.
Saturday, the team doubled down on physical players on Day 2 of the draft.
OHL winger Connor Clattenburg (79 PIMs in 60 games) turns 20 in May of 2025. OHL centre Dalyn Wakely, a hardworking pivot with skill and plenty of compete, is 20 now.
Future indicators
Fans should look for a more physical Bakersfield team in 2024-25. The next opportunity for the organization to change the style of the Condors will come in the fall, when training camps begin.
Over the last several months, the Oilers have added some skill wingers headed for the AHL in September.
James Stefan is a right-shot who plays the wing and is a first-shot scorer. He’ll need to play with skill, and one of the issues in Bakersfield last winter came with the team having so many young wingers trying to establish themselves. Brady Stonehouse is a similar player about to turn pro.
There’s a problem.
The Oilers last season housed five young wingers who count skill as their main positive. They are Raphael Lavoie, Xavier Bourgault, Carter Savoie, Matvey Petrov and Tyler Tullio, with Tullio owning a reasonable two-way skill set.
That’s too many players applying for the same job, and with Stefan and Stonehouse on the way, something has to give.
Oilers fans should expect the organization to walk or deal at least one of the young wingers who are restricted free agents (Savoie, Lavoie) and possibly trade or fade a few more.
It’s likely we will see bigger men added at centre over the summer.
Grubbe (6-foot-3, 201 pounds) does not have a huge amount of offence to his game, but can stifle the cycle and win board battles. He has some mean spirit to his game, much utilized by coach Colin Chaulk a year ago.
Advertisement
Noah Philp (6-foot-3, 185 pounds) missed last season but will return in 2024-25. He was close to NHL-ready and plays a strong physical game with enough skill to project as a middle-six forward when he arrives in Edmonton. That could come at some point next season once he shakes off the rust of a year away from the game.
It’s possible Wakely goes right from the draft to pro hockey in the fall, with the likely destination Bakersfield. Among the Saturday draft picks, he appears to be the most likely forward to have pro success.
The organization may sign veteran NHL players who could spend time in the minors, like Adam Erne last season.
It looks like an overhaul of the Condors, with some pure skill forwards from last year possibly on the outside looking in.
Bottom line
The Oilers farm team seemed to have lost its way last season.
Prospects who were supposed to spike as players, like 2021 first-round selection Xavier Bourgault, ended up going the wrong way.
In the 2022-23 season, as a rookie pro, Bourgault scored 6-14-20 in 62 games (0.32 points per game) and helped the Condors outscore opponents 37-25 (60 percent goal share). Both numbers are even strength.
This season (also at even strength) he scored just 4-7-11 in 55 games (0.20 points per game) with the outscoring (24-22, 52 percent) off the pace.
Management may decide to move on from Bourgault, but there has to be concern about all of the skill wingers in the organization.
The moves to bring in Stefan and Stonehouse, and the draft focus this weekend on forwards who can compete, suggests Oilers management believes it’s a style issue and possibly a problem with the 2023-24 personnel.
Is this a good idea?
History tells us drafting skill with every pick is the best route to success. The Oilers went for a specific style of player at the 2024 draft, perhaps believing there is enough quality in the system now.
Advertisement
A team that drafts skill annually, like the Carolina Hurricanes, can use those offensive performers in trade and acquire players (checkers, physical players) who are more abundant than the scorers.
The Oilers drafted a player in the first round with middle-six forward potential and continued (for the most part) drafting forwards who do not project as NHL top-six players.
Among the second day picks, only Wakely has the right profile in projecting NHL talent.
The Oilers appear to have passed up skill in favour of edgier players who are difficult to play against every night.
It might be a hangover from the Stanley Cup Final loss. That painful experience may have impacted the organization’s view of this year’s draft and next year’s NHL and AHL team.
The Oilers appear to be fading skill and embracing a rugged style. Expect this kind of player procurement to continue and be on display in Edmonton and Bakersfield in 2024-25.
(Photo of Sam O’Reilly: Candice Ward / Getty Images)
