Donald Trump's China Stance Risks Angering Republicans

Donald Trump's questioning of U.S. security arrangements for Taiwan appears to be at odds with Republican sentiment about protecting the self-governed island from a possible invasion by China, according to exclusive polling for Newsweek.

The survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies was conducted on Monday, a day before an interview with Trump was published by Bloomberg, in which he is quoted as saying, "Taiwan should pay us for defense."

Despite no formal diplomatic ties between them, the U.S. is the island's most important international backer and bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to provide the means for its defense, although Washington maintains a policy of "strategic ambiguity" on the territory Beijing says is its own, a claim rejected by Taipei.

Beijing's belligerence in the South China Sea has been of mounting constant concern for Taiwan and its regional neighbors. In May, China held military drills around the island soon after Lai Ching-te took office as Taiwan's president.

Trump's comments added uncertainty to what his policy toward Taiwan would be should he win in November. He told Bloomberg the island is "9,500 miles away" and only "68 miles away from China," also complaining that it "took our chip business from us."

The Redfield and Wilton Strategies polling for Newsweek of 3,500 people gave a snapshot of American voter support for Taiwan if China invaded the island.

With a margin of error of 1.44 percent, the poll asked Americans the question that if China were to invade Taiwan, to what extent would they support the U.S. and its allies, such as the U.K., coming to the aid of the island.

Among Republicans, 43 percent either approved or strongly approved of American help—more than twice the 18 percent who disapproved or strongly disapproved of such a move. Among respondents, 12 percent said they did not know.

This GOP support was roughly the same that was shown by voters of all stripes. Some 44 percent of all respondents either approved or strongly approved of the U.S. helping Taiwan. Again, this was three times the 14 percent of all voters who either disapproved or strongly disapproved of the move. Just over a quarter (26 percent) neither approved nor disapproved and 16 percent said they did not know.

When contacted for comment, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung told Newsweek, "there was peace when President Trump was in office. Sadly, President Joe Biden represents more wars, more conflict, and more unnecessary aggression."

Zhiqun Zhu, political science professor at Bucknell University in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, told Newsweek, "polls show that GOP voters are more likely than Democrats or Independents to support US defense of Taiwan." However, other survey questions may generate different answers. "If you ask—do you support the U.S. sending troops to Taiwan to fight a war with China? I doubt the majority will still say yes."

"Trump has never been a big fan of defending Taiwan," Zhu said, adding that what the U.S. would do in the event of an invasion under his presidency depends on the situation.

"If China suddenly launches an attack without provocation, most certainly the U.S. will come to Taiwan's help," Zhu said. But if Taiwan proceeds with de jure independence from China, "then it is likely that the US will not intervene or will only be minimally involved if war breaks out."

"Many people in Taiwan are also clear-minded about the potential U.S. help. They are watching the Russia-Ukraine war and realize that it is not a good idea to totally rely on Uncle Sam for Taiwan's own defense."

Trump also told Bloomberg that he supports TikTok "because you need competition" in a reversal of his stance as president, when he tried to ban the Chinese social media giant.

"Trump could be vulnerable to the critique of being soft on China," said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at the Watson Institute.

"In the past Trump administration, U.S.-China relations nosedived as China hawks like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo held sway," he told Newsweek, referring to the former national security adviser, who later became a Trump critic, and the ex-secretary of state, respectively.

But Goldstein said it was notable that Trump's running mate, JD Vance, favors more support for Taiwan and leading Republican strategists have criticized the Democrats for being too focused on Russia and neglecting the threat from China.

"Both are troubling situations, to be sure, but neither constitutes a vital national security interest for the U.S.," he added.

On Thursday, Kuoyu Chiao, deputy head of the North America department at Taiwan's foreign ministry, said the island would work with the U.S. and other allies "to strengthen our national defense capabilities" in efforts to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait.

"We must take President Trump's remarks in a broader perspective—he didn't say U.S. won't defend Taiwan, he said Taiwan should increase its burden-sharing of the cost of such collective defense," said Miles Yu, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute.

"The big difference between President Trump and President Biden is the former places utmost importance on deterrence and the latter far less," he told Newsweek. "Prevention of war with credible deterrence over Taiwan has been a hallmark of President Trump who has also said on record that if China invaded Taiwan, he would bomb Beijing."

"The joint defense of Taiwan is a national consensus," Yu added, and "to change that will be extremely difficult."

Steve Tsang, director of the University of London's China Institute, said that Taiwan will find ways to work with Trump, should he get reelected "and pay the insurance premium if needed."

"Invading Taiwan is still an operation more demanding than the Normandy landings, and (President) Xi Jinping will not want to order an invasion unless he is certain of success," he told Newsweek. "For this the PLA (People's Liberation Army) will have to be very ready. The recent turmoil in the PLA leadership would suggest that it is not."