Hurricane Beryl Spaghetti Models As Texas Braces for Possible Impact

After carving a path of destruction in the southeast Caribbean and killing at least six people, Hurricane Beryl was moving as a powerful Category 4 storm toward Jamaica early on Wednesday, where a hurricane warning is in place. Experts warned that, while Florida appears to be safe from the devastating impact of the storms, states like Texas and Louisiana might be affected.

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While Beryl has lost strength since it was upgraded to a Category 5 storm overnight on Tuesday, becoming the strongest hurricane ever recorded this early in the season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that it's still likely to bring "life-threatening winds and storm surge" to Jamaica today and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Beryl is expected to reach Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the center.

In the U.S., the Texas Climate Office has urged South Texas to continue monitoring the tropics as Beryl moves towards Mexico. "It still remains too early to determine direct impacts for Texas," the office wrote on X. "Although, NWS Corpus Christi anticipates an increased risk of rip currents & coastal flooding."

The Houston branch of the National Weather Service (NWS) wrote that any impacts on southeast Texas will be determined by the path going into the Gulf. "Northern track: greater potential for wind, rain, or storm surge impacts; Southern track: little to no impacts," the agency wrote. "Strong rip currents will be likely this weekend regardless."

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Noah Bergren, weeknight meteorologist for FOX35 Orlando, said that "we need to watch closely" into the 4th of July weekend for how the storm could impact the U.S.

"I think we can confidently say *Florida is safe* from Beryl. Can not say that yet for Louisiana, Texas, and Mexico," he wrote on X. "It should weaken some around Jamaica and the central Caribbean... then [at the] end of next week could enter the Gulf, and RE-strengthen. Notice a handful of models take it to a Louisiana or TX landfall then hook the remnants up to Kentucky or Tennessee next weekend," he added, sharing a spaghetti model of the storm.

Meteorologist Blake Mathews wrote on the social media platform warning that "a direct impact on the Texas coast" is "more and more of a possibility"—though it's far from certain.

It's highly uncommon for a storm of this strength to appear this early in the Atlantic hurricane season, and many experts see this as an ominous sign of what might be ahead this year. When it made landfall on Monday, Beryl was the first-ever Category 4 storm in June; while it's the second time that a Category 5 storm has been recorded in July—after Hurricane Emily on July 17, 2005—Beryl is the earliest storm of such deadly strength on record.

Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry wrote on X that the hot waters in the Atlantic and the Caribbean which have fueled the storm are highly unusual for this time of the year.

"Sea surface temperatures along Hurricane Beryl's track are running at record or near record levels for the week, with a deep reservoir of ocean fuel," he wrote. "Waters are as hot as they typically are in late August and September, no doubt a big player in Beryl's record June intensity."

The hurricane has ripped through the southeast Caribbean, which had not seen a storm of this strength in 20 years, after Hurricane Ivan killed dozens of people in Grenada.

Hurricane Beryl counts a total of at least six victims as of early on Wednesday: three people were reported killed in Grenada and the island of Carriacou; another in the Grenadines; and two others in northern Venezuela. Thousands of people have been affected as the storm destroyed homes, uprooted trees, caused them to evacuate and cut electricity lines, leaving them without power.