CNBC Overtime

Oil is sitting near two-month highs amid expectations for heavy demand this summer. Middle East tensions and Hurricane Beryl are on investors’ minds too. Although markets have faded geopolitical risks, said RBC Capital Markets Head of Global Commodity Strategy Helima Croft, investors should watch Israel’s rising tensions with Lebanon and Hezbollah.

The Industrials sector is the fourth worst performing sector this year, up only six percent. J.P. Morgan Morgan analyst Steve Tusa joined the show to discuss what names could see a bounceback.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are at record highs but are retail investors feeling good about their portfolios? According to Betterment’s second annual retail survey, they’re feeling anxious. “We were surprised to see the election and anxiety around the election were shadowing everything,” said Betterment CEO Sarah Kirshbaum Levy.

Shares of Tesla rallied after beating Wall Street’s estimates for its second quarter deliveries report. Still, Tesla is down almost seven percent this year, while the rest of the Magnificent 7 stocks are up. Anthony Wang, T. Rowe Price Science & Technology Fund Portfolio Manager, lays out what he needs to see in order to justify Tesla’s current valuation.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 pushed higher to a record close. Amazon, Microsoft and Apple also touched record levels. Payne Capital Management Senior Wealth Advisor Courtney (Dominguez) Garcia, CFP® joined the program to make the case for bonds. “If interest rates do eventually come down, that is going to be a boost for the stock market so you want to make sure you stay invested here, especially in bonds.” said Garcia. “There’s so much cash on the sidelines here and everybody is happy paying that five percent, but the second that interest rates go down, those are going to rate downwards and you’re going to see that safe money go into bonds.” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli points out forces are pushing short-term bond yields down and long-term yields higher. “What’s pushing long-term yields higher are the fiscal dynamics in the United States,” said Crisafulli, “which is going to be the dominant theme towards the end of this year and all throughout 2025.”

I speak with Amazon Web Services (AWS) CEO Matt Garman in his first interview in the role, covering competition with OpenAI, demand from the enterprise, and his leadership journey.

The TSA set a single-day screening record last week and says more records could break in the coming days. Glenn Fogel, Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), joined the show to discuss the surge in travel and consumer trends. “They’re definitely spending a lot of money because prices are high,” said Fogel.

Stocks struggled to find a direction as the third quarter kicked off, but the Nasdaq climbed to a record close thanks to Tesla’s big pop. “Seasonality is positive for the first half of July,” said Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, “and I think more importantly though, heading into earnings season you have negative analyst sentiment in terms of earnings revisions. So we’re seeing more negative revisions than positive revisions.” “To the extent the economy shows more signs of weakness, particularly around the U.S. consumer, I think the stock market will begin to struggle,” said Bob Doll, CFA, Crossmark Global Investments, Inc. CEO, “because earnings estimates which are pretty lofty, double digit gain this year and next, will have trouble getting there if that weakness sets in. Otherwise it’s a momentum market.”

For this week’s edition of Time Out, Jon Fortt sat down with MoviePass co-founder and CEO Stacy Spikes to talk about the company’s comeback amid concerns over the future of movie theaters.

Today’s Core PCE Price Index data came in line with expectations and gave investors hope that inflation is slowing down. Thomas Hoenig, former Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President and Distinguished Senior Fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, says the recent data doesn’t justify cutting rates soon.