W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research’s Post

“𝑽 𝑴𝒂𝒌𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑭𝒖𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒆 One thing is certain for the developed countries—and probably in the entire world: We face long years of profound changes. The changes are not primarily economic changes. They are not even primarily technological changes. They are changes in demographics, in politics, in society, in philosophy and, above all, in worldview. Economic theory and economic policy are unlikely to be effective by themselves in such a period. And there is no social theory for such a period either. Only when such a period is over, decades later, are theories likely to be developed to explain what has happened. But a few things are certain in such a period. It is futile, for instance, to try and ignore the changes and to pretend that tomorrow will be like yesterday, only more so. This, however, is the position that existing institutions tend to adopt in such a period—businesses as well as nonbusinesses.” (page 92) “But to try to anticipate the changes is equally unlikely to be successful. These changes are not predictable. The only policy likely to succeed is to try to 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘦 the future. Changes of course have to fit the Certainties (I Collapsing Birthrate in the Developed World; II Shifts in the Distribution of Income; III Defining Performance; IV Global Competitiveness and V The Growing Incongruence Between Economic Reality and Political Reality) (which this book has tried to outline in the preceding chapter). Within these restraints, however, the future is still malleable. It can still be created. To try to make the future is highly risky. It is less risky, however, than not to try to make it.” (page 93) (words in bold+italics and italicized word in original) Peter F. Drucker, 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘵𝘦𝘳 3 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘓𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘦𝘳, in 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 21𝘴𝘵 𝘊𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘺, Oxford, Auckland, Boston, Johannesburg, Melbourne and New Delhi, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1999, pages 92-93.  

Three facts, simple but remarkable, have defined the economic history of human beings until now. - The first is that, for most of the 300,000 years that human beings have been around, economic life was stagnant. Whether a person was a hunter-gatherer in the Stone Age or a labourer working in the eighteenth century, their economic fate was very similar: both are likely to have lived in poverty, engaged in a relentless struggle for subsistence.* - The second is that it was only very recently that this stagnation came to an end. Modern economic growth began just two hundred years ago, when living standards in certain parts of the world started a dizzying climb. If the sum of human history were an hour long, then this reversal in fortune took place in the last couple of seconds.' And the third is that human beings have managed to maintain their economic ascent. Whenever growth happened in earlier cen-turies, it had been limited and fizzled out. But this time it was both significant and sustained, as if some long-pent-up productive power which had laid hidden for millennia had finally been unleashed.* This is what makes modern economic growth entirely unlike anything that had come before. Daniel Susskind #degrowth

Anchor institutions are often the largest employers in regions, and nationally, anchor GDP grew 45.9 percent between 2004 and 2019. But is reliance on anchor institutions an indicator of economic strength or vulnerability?  New research released by the Philadelphia Fed’s Anchor Economy Initiative explores how the economic role of hospitals and institutions of higher education has changed over time and whether changes in anchor reliance relate to economic conditions in regions.   Using data from the Anchor Economy Dashboard — which now includes economic impacts and reliance indexes for the years 2004 and 2019 — researchers looked closely at how regional economic change and a region’s reliance on anchor institutions intersect. They focused on 30 regions that have experienced significant change in anchor reliance over this 15-year period.    The findings offer further insight into the role that the eds and meds sectors play in the national economy and within regions, and how anchor reliance relates to economic conditions. Understanding how anchor institution economic impact has changed at the regional level is important to understanding regional economic growth. https://bit.ly/4bEqn6R #AnchorInstititutions #RegionalEconomy #AnchorEconomy

Unveiling the Geo-Political and Economic Landscape of the U.S.: A Texas-Based Perspective As we delve into the intricacies of the United States' population dynamics, it's pivotal to understand how migration—both internal and international—and geographical features intertwine to sculpt the economic and demographic contours of the country. The U.S. is marked by substantial population clusters primarily located along the coasts and urban centers, with notable high GDP areas like New York, California, and Texas leading the economy. Texas, in particular, has emerged as a paradigm-shifting powerhouse over recent years. Traditionally recognized for its oil and agriculture, the Lone Star State has pivoted towards becoming a hub for technology, advanced manufacturing, and high-value services. This transformation is emblematic of broader shifts across the U.S., where economic diversification is increasingly driven by innovation and high-tech industries. Our firm, JAGroup, with over 27 years of immersed experience across the USMCA territories "having lived and worked in all three nations" understands the subtleties of these transitions firsthand. Today, based out of Texas, we are strategically positioned to guide our partners and clients through the geo-political and economic landscapes that define the U.S. From analyzing climate impacts to demographic shifts, our insights help stakeholders navigate and leverage the complex market dynamics. In Texas, the last few years have been transformative. The state has not only continued to attract a diverse population due to its relatively low cost of living and favorable climate but has also seen an influx of tech giants and startups, further diversifying its economic base. This has enabled Texas to break away from its traditional reliance on primary sectors, moving towards a more robust, value-added economy. At JAGroup, we pride ourselves on our deep-rooted knowledge and our ability to adapt and thrive in changing environments. We invite you to join us in exploring the opportunities that the evolving U.S. landscape presents. Stay connected and informed with us as we explore more about these dynamic shifts. #USMCA #BusinessTransformation #TexasEconomy #Innovation #EconomicDiversity #JAGroup Office of Texas Governor Greg Abbott Texas Economic Development NADBank Texas A&M University-Kingsville College of Business Administration ABC - South Texas Chapter Texas A&M University Jorge Arturo Acevedo Alarid, Ph.D President and CEO JAGroup This LinkedIn article aims to highlight the population and economic trends in the U.S. with a special focus on #Texas, drawing on JAGroup's extensive experience and regional base to provide expert insights into the geo-political and economic fabric of the country.

I might also add the opportunity to inherit or pass down wealth or assets as a life experience. However, this is interesting research to follow to begin to pinpoint lifestage experiences where structural racism, gender, and class bias intersect and impact economic mobility.

Research shows that historically, every generation could expect to be more financially secure than their parents. Today, that’s not the case. Economic mobility has been on the decline since the 1940s. To better understand the life experiences that impact economic mobility the most, the Gates Foundation US has partnered with Camber Collective to launch the Mobility Experiences research series. This series is based on over 230 peer-reviewed studies and a survey of over 4,000 people with lived experiences. What has emerged from this research are 28 life experiences that impact lifetime earnings and economic mobility the most.  You can read  the report here: https://lnkd.in/gTQyjPAR

This great article lets us consider a transformative shift towards a post-work, post-growth, library economy 🌱📚. This approach moves us away from the traditional growth model, focusing instead on longevity, shared resources, and the well-being of our communities and environment 🌍💼🌿. Libraries emerge as community powerhouses, driving education, cultural engagement, and economic resilience. Let's collectively embrace this evolution toward an economy that cherishes and sustains our planet and its people. https://lnkd.in/eUSHRAe2

#LaurierResearch Chan, J. (2024). The long-run effects of childhood exposure to market access shocks: Evidence from the US railroad network expansion. Explorations in Economic History, 91, 101503. https://lnkd.in/gq5PDGY9 This paper examines the impact of economic shocks during childhood on later-life outcomes using the expansion of the US railroad network from 1900 to 1910 as a case study, finding that sons exposed to increased market access are less likely to be literate and well-educated, and earn lower incomes in the long run. Jeff Chan (2023) described the long-run effects of childhood exposure to market access shocks. Researchers have studied the effects of economic shocks on individuals, firms, and regions, particularly focusing on the impact of railroad network expansions on market access. Using individual-level linked panel data, the study found that increased market access from railroad expansions had both short and long-term effects on white men exposed to the shock as children. The study tracked male children over their lifetimes up to 1940 to analyze the long-term impacts. The research highlights the unexpected negative consequences of economic shocks that are perceived as positive for economic growth. The study also connects later-life outcomes to changes occurring within affected families in the short-run. Future research aims to further explore the costs of changes in market access and economic shocks on individuals over time and across generations. Aspects of the authors’ conclusions claim to support prior research in this topic: “The study includes a robustness check for the impact of the boll weevil on cotton production, as shown by Ager et al. The results are generally consistent with the main findings, but some specifications are no longer significant,” Chan suggested. The authors advocate that future research aims to explore the impact of changes in market access and economic shocks on individuals over time and across generations.

Florida ranks No. 7 best economy in the U.S. according to a study by WalletHub. Florida's economy is so large that if it was its own country it would rank in the top 20 in the world! Florida ranks fourth in economic activity and second in economic health. #Great4Biz #BizGrowth

I just finished reading "The New Geography of Jobs" by Enrico Moretti. Although the book was written nearly 12 years ago, its principles remain as relevant as ever. It’s a fascinating read that highlights how economic forces shape the geography of jobs and prosperity. One major takeaway for me is understanding how the multiplier effect shapes not only industries but also local and global economies, stimulating job growth across various sectors. Moretti illustrates this through the lens of innovation, showing how each innovation or tech job can create five additional non-tech jobs in the local economy. What’s even more intriguing is how this concept extends beyond the tech industry. Take guaranteed income, for example. The Denver Basic Income Project has shown that providing a financial cushion doesn’t just help individuals; it also stimulates local economies, creating a ripple effect of growth and opportunity in areas like housing, full-time employment, and mental health. It lowers the demand for resources and boosts the workforce. The Roosevelt Institute found that a guaranteed income program could grow the U.S. economy by $2.5 trillion over eight years. Overall, Moretti’s work challenges us to think broadly about what drives economic growth. The principles from his book are not just historical—they’re a roadmap for building the economies of the future. #Innovation #TheNewGeographyOfJobs #TheMultiplierEffect #GuarenteedIncome #WorkforceDevelopment