Trust Retail’s Post

Congratulations to Marks and Spencer for such impressive results. Very interesting especially compared to Waitrose & Partners, with sales up 15% compared to Waitrose' 4% and profit up 56% compared to only 17%. I've been tracking these two retailers closely over the past four years, primarily as I exited one and onboarded one as a bakery supplier during 2019/20. It's interesting to see the work M&S have done to extend their reach and basket sizes into the family side of things without sacrificing what they are known for - top quality food. Some fantastic innovations, much around store environments, coupled with a better promotional calendar have made M&S better value than before, tempting what must be established Waitrose shoppers into their stores. Waitrose, rather like Sainsbury's, has lost its voice since the pandemic. Stores are looking tired, I don't see much innovation (especially in Bakery and Fresh where M&S have pulled out all the stops) and frankly, as someone who cooks a lot and used to spend much time looking at interesting things on their shelves, Waitrose hasn't inspired me. On top of that, I don't see them as delivering the kind of Value/Quality mix as M&S have done so well. I can never stress enough, whether you're a retailer or manufacturer, the need to identify what you're good at, what you stand for and the experience you want your customers to have, then stick to it, invest in it and communicate it properly. Retail always moves, they who stand still (Waitrose) will get left behind those, like M&S, who look to constantly evolve. #fmcg #ukretail #marksandspencer #waitrose #groceryretail #innovation #shoppermarketing #shopperinsights #financialresults #marketing

**Waitrose grows market share for first time in two years** Waitrose & Partners has grown its market share for the first time in two years as investments into its food range pay off. Kantar’s supermarket share and inflation update showed that spending at the upmarket grocer edged up 3.3%, helping to lift its market share by 0.1 percentage point to 4.5%. It is the first time Waitrose has experienced an increase in its market share since January 2022 and comes after the retailer has made several investments into strengthening its food offer, including relaunching its premium No1 range. Waitrose chair Sharon White insisted last month that the retailer was “back on track” and that the convenience sector was a top expansion priority for the upmarket grocer. Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt said: “We’re still waiting for the great British summer to break through the clouds, and we’re seeing the effects of that in our shopping baskets. “Over the past three months, sales of cold and flu treatments jumped by 35%, while sun cream dipped by 10% compared with last year, when we were enjoying the warmest June on record. Some shoppers aren’t letting the disappointing weather dull their glow, however, pushing up sales of artificial tan by 16%. “The retail landscape looks very different from 2010 when the last Labour government was in power – and so do our shopping trolleys,” he adds, explaining that we’re more likely to buy premium ground and bean coffee. Link to article in comments.

Hey there UK Grocery! How's it been? What's that? We won't know until the post-peak-season sales updates and Worldpanel by Kantar market share data in February? Nah, sod that - here's the NOW report using Uncrowd empirical observational data, captured in stores from the 14th to the 19th of December. Fresh out the oven indeed. Includes a lovely foreword from Simon Hay, who is Daddy Data as you know. A report that concludes: 🥔Sainsbury's’s are well placed to win peak season on revenue. 🥔Aldi UK's price advantage remains incredibly potent... but... (see predictions). 🥔Tesco dominate on estate and in resisting change may have made a good call in an uncertain year, but they've been beaten by Sainsbury's on Nectar. 🥔Christmas likely to have driven Nectar and Clubcard sign-ups significantly. Which leads to the following predictions. 👛 Expect surprisingly positive numbers in the post-peak performance updates from Sainsbury’s, Morrisons and Marks and Spencer. 👛 Cautious optimism from Tesco. 👛 Likely disappointment at Waitrose & Partners and Asda. 👛 Possibly slower growth at ALDI but a definite backwards step at Lidl GB. I mean, that all reads a bit like the Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice Crop Reports bit in Trading Places but I promise you the report itself, and the head-to-heads and the controversial bits. Ooh it's a ride it is. I think you can download the pdf the way I have it set up here, feel free to share as you see fit and also to tell us that we know bugger all 😋 #grocery #experienceanalytics #missedmychristmasdinnerstoryforanotherday

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐞 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐔𝐊 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐔𝐩 Amidst the government's recent advisories on prepare.campaign.gov.uk, there's been a notable shift in consumer behaviour across the UK. The directive to stockpile essentials has led to a discernible uptick in demand for bottled water and non-perishable food items, placing the spotlight on national grocery retailers such as Tesco https://www.tesco.com/ , Sainsbury's https://lnkd.in/e-_FJrpn , Waitrose, and Morrisons. These establishments are now at the forefront, not just in terms of sales but as pillars of community support and resilience. Here's a closer look at the unfolding scenario: Implications for Grocery Retailers: ●   Demand Surge : Essentials are flying off the shelves, and these chains are racing to keep up, showcasing their logistical prowess. ●   Supply Chain Dynamics : The true test is unfolding behind the scenes – ensuring a steady flow of stock without hiccups. ●    Building Trust: In times of uncertainty, these brands are becoming synonymous with reliability, bolstering consumer confidence. Proactive Measures: ●    Inventory Insight: Retailers are scrutinising their stock levels, ensuring essentials are plentiful and within reach. ●    Supporting the Community: Their commitment goes beyond commerce; it's about ensuring no one is left wanting during trying times. ●    Transparent Communication: They're keeping the lines of communication open, updating customers regularly about availability and restocking efforts. As the narrative of preparedness continues to evolve, it's clear that these grocery giants are not just responding to a surge in demand – they're reaffirming their role in the fabric of society, proving that in times of need, they're more than just a place to shop. #UKBusiness #CommunityResilience #Preparedness #NationalGroceryChains 🌟 𝐄𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 & 𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐥! 🌟 𝐀𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬? 𝐽𝑜𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑎t https://lnkd.in/eur54K77 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠! 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑒 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑒𝑑, 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑦𝑜𝑢’𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑙𝑠𝑜 𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑦 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑦. 𝐼𝑡’𝑠 𝑎 𝑤𝑖𝑛-𝑤𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦! 🚀 ✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦✧✦ Footnote: Your insights are invaluable to me. If you have suggestions or topics you’d like to see discussed in future posts, please share them in the comments or message me directly at [email protected]. Your contributions not only enrich our conversations but also inspire the content that I curate for this community. Let’s collaborate to explore and unpack the complexities of our ever-evolving business landscape together.

Kantar reports that the winners of Christmas 2023 were discounters combined in 1st place (Lidl fastest growing +13.8%, followed by Aldi +9.9%), Sainsburys 2nd and then Tesco 3rd (NB: data excludes M&S). Aldi and Lidl have taken their combined market share from 16.3% to 17%* (+0.7%pts) whereas Sainsbury moves forward +0.3%pts to 15.8% and Tesco +0.2%pts to 27.6%. Kantar said a record £13.7bn passed through UK supermarket tills over the four weeks to Dec. 24 with an all-time-high average household spend of £477 in take home grocery, up £28 vs Dec 2022. Inflation is to answer for some of these hefty increases and we noted within our '12 Observations of Christmas' article (here is link in case you missed it: https://lnkd.in/ey2eXHy4) how retailers were trying hard to try and win shoppers through with heavy promotional activity. This resulted in nearly 1/3rd of all spend being with some kind of offer, the highest level since December 2020!* While the Kantar results are showing that discounters won the top spot, here at Levercliff the team kept a look out for some of our favourite food and drink innovations throughout the festive period and we will post our winners shortly – team is voting on best finds currently! Sources: *Kantar WPO 12 w/e Dec 24th 2023

When you see it…you’ll realise that all that glitters is not gold.    The sausage sector has, like most UK industry sectors, faced its fair share of turbulence. Changes in consumer purchasing behaviour, rising inflation, spiralling costs and an ever-changing retail landscape have played havoc with budgets. Throughout it all however, Porky Whites Ltd withstood these tests and like many of of competitors seeing a return to calmer waters.    There’s a lot that can be said for good PR and storytelling to create a happy ever after message, but when you’re live and breathe the sausage sector like I do, it’s easy to spot a bluff or two.    So, for the record, here are some Porky Whites facts:   1. We’ve seen volume growth of +3.3% YoY and value +9.9% YoY in the Fresh Meat category in Grocery Multiples (Nielsen IQ 12 w/e 23/03/2024).   2. Porky Whites is consistently out-performed Private Labels in the UK sausage category with +4.5% volume growth for (Nielsen IQ 12 w/e 23/03/2024) versus +0.5% volume growth for Private Label.   3. Sausage continues with strong volume growth of +2.0% and is the only sector with positive growth vs 2 Years Ago +0.1% (Nielsen IQ 12 w/e 23/03/2024).   4. According to Nielsen IQ Spectra Homescan data (Jan 2024) we have a uniquely broad appeal with families, couples, single households over-indexing in social grades A-E in urban, suburban and outskirt locations alike. In my opinion, sales volume is not the only way to measure business growth. It can also be measured by business operations, relationships and by customer loyalty. So if anybody at the The Grocer, Meat Management, Pig World Magazine want to cover our path to growth, then I’d welcome the opportunity to share our story. #FoodIndustry #UKBusiness #RetailTrends #GroceryMarket #NielsenIQ #SausageSector #BusinessGrowth

The battle is on between M&S and Waitrose for the spot of 7th biggest UK grocery retailer. I’m interested to observe what role omnichannel and experience will play…..   M&S certainly has momentum on the back of good numbers in 2023 including record-breaking festive figures. Value has complemented quality as a key pillar in its proposition and this would seem to be working. The true test will be whether they can carry the momentum well into 2024.   Analysis by Retail Week predicts that M&S will overtake Waitrose as the UK’s seventh-biggest retailer within two years. Waitrose has a solid reputation amongst middle-class shoppers and I’m sure its executive team will be working hard to reinforce its key points of differentiation to combat M&S’s threat.   Price is effective to a degree but how do we avoid a race to the bottom and weave in ‘experience’ effectively to the offering?    The attached was an interesting article in the UK’s The Telegraph a few weeks back. What are your thoughts on this? #fmcg #retailinsights #groceryretail #omnichannelmarketing

Is the UK "eco-conscious" grocery market really growing? We recently conducted a qualitative survey with 300 UK grocery shoppers. Amongst other questions, we asked what factors were important to these shoppers when buying fruit and vegetables. Rather than showing a list of possible answers, we asked respondents to write the factors in their own words. The answers included far fewer "eco-considerations" than might have been expected. For example, only one person mentioned the term "food miles". Over the course of this week I will share the results, including some verbatims, and then publish an article. #groceryretail #groceryindustry #foodandbeverageindustry

Leadership

Tale of the tape – here’s the inside story on how the data describes who wins and who loses in UK grocery. First up: Waitrose & Partners and their win in the ‘Choice’ category. Headlines: 📰 Waitrose’s win comes from super performance in produce and packaged, as well as good premium (though not quite as good as M&S). 📰 In ‘Choice – Produce’ they had more varieties of apples, berries and bagged salads (all good indicators of choice depth) than M&S or Tesco. Beneath that, let’s look at the variables that count towards the win. Scores are gathered from the signals that feed each variable. For example, ‘Range – Meat’ is fed by three observable and measurable signals ‘Categories’, ‘Range Logic’ and ‘Packs’. 🍷Premium Path / Position 🍷Range - Produce 🍷Choice - Meat 🍷Choice - Produce 🍷Choice – Packaged Grocery 🍷Range - Grocery 🍷Range - Meat 🍷Premium Availability 🍷Out Of Stock – Grocery Choice, range (assortment in the US), and OOS are three dimensions on the same question but each tells a different and specific story. Choice is about exactly that, in a given category how many choices are observably present? Range looks at how deep and broad that choice is AND at how it is logically presented (if at all). OOS – Grocery is your classical gaps count, I would have hated my District Managers having this measure when I was in stores! The white glove Tricker used to wear to ‘measure’ levels of dust on top of products was bad enough… Premium helps Waitrose to some extent but it is not the whole story. If we turn off the two ‘premium’ related variables then Tesco wins, but even then Waitrose finishes a decent second. M&S drop to 6th. That’s describing a critical difference between Waitrose and M&S in premium; the former has come to rely less on premium than has M&S. Right strategy? Given their very different fortunes in recent quarters, one can easily argue ‘no’. Giving up its premium positioning is hurting Waitrose. This was a close run category and it was good to see Waitrose come out on top. If I were at the helm, I would be using the wider data outside of Choice to bench-test strategy, change and transformation. How do we line up on experience across the rest of journey? What are our gaps to competitors in the context of our most valuable customer stories? Elsewhere: In premium, M&S wins on Availability (100% observation of premium options throughout the store, versus Waitrose's 75%) and premium setting, where M&S used more premium materials (63% observed frequency at M&S versus 25% at Waitrose), and higher prices as an indicator (63% vs 50%) - that last is a great one to explore. #retail #experienceanalytics #grocery