Trivium China’s Post

"There's no point in telling people that 'houses aren't for speculating,' when nobody is speculating on houses." Wise words from Trivium China's head of markets research Dinny McMahon, when discussing why this key phrase was dropped from Premier Li Qiang's work report last week. If you want to see our full discussion of this and other key takeaways from China's Two Sessions, just pop over here: https://hubs.ly/Q02nWD9H0

Don't miss our upcoming live Two Sessions Flash Talk on Thursday, March 7, at 10:00am EST. Register now: https://hubs.ly/Q02nrBQc0 China's economy has started 2024 on an uncertain foot, to say the least. That's why businesses, investors, and anyone else interested in China's economic trajectory are closely watching this year's Two Sessions – for any hint that the government might look to step up policy support. To understand the latest economic plan, make sure to join us on Thursday, March 7 at 10:00am EST for a live Flash Talk where we'll break down all the key signals from China's leadership. Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk and Head of China Markets Research Dinny McMahon will get together to discuss all the latest, and what it means for the economy going forward. Register here: https://hubs.ly/Q02nrBQc0 And make sure to bring all your burning questions -- we'll see you then!

China and the West are on the precipice of a critical minerals trade war, especially as China ramps up its capability to fight back against US export controls. Check out our latest deep dive on China's evolving approach in this important and quickly evolving battlefield: https://hubs.ly/Q02mHC3d0 The big question: Which mineral export will China set its sights on next. We have seen very few models for anticipating new controls. Meanwhile, much foreign analysis assesses *existing* export controls – but chiefly from the perspective of Western interests and vulnerabilities. Such framings fail to center China in its own terms, as is necessary if we want to understand: Which controls can China meaningfully deploy, in line with which specific interests, and with what domestic consequences? With that in mind, Trivium China has developed a framework for assessing the controls China perceives as most in its interests. In total, we assessed 73 critical minerals – and present the nine we found to be at the highest risk of future controls. In this note, we walk you through the framework we used to make those determinations before discussing the nine minerals, in turn. Enjoy!