Trivium China’s Post

China and the West are on the precipice of a critical minerals trade war, especially as China ramps up its capability to fight back against US export controls. Check out our latest deep dive on China's evolving approach in this important and quickly evolving battlefield: https://hubs.ly/Q02mHwkf0 The big question: Which mineral export will China set its sights on next. We have seen very few models for anticipating new controls. Meanwhile, much foreign analysis assesses *existing* export controls – but chiefly from the perspective of Western interests and vulnerabilities. Such framings fail to center China in its own terms, as is necessary if we want to understand: Which controls can China meaningfully deploy, in line with which specific interests, and with what domestic consequences? With that in mind, Trivium China has developed a framework for assessing the controls China perceives as most in its interests. In total, we assessed 73 critical minerals – and present the nine we found to be at the highest risk of future controls. In this note, we walk you through the framework we used to make those determinations before discussing the nine minerals, in turn. Enjoy!

Resource Risks: China's Grip on Critical Minerals and America's Vulnerable Supply Chain #SupplyChain AF delves into the intricate web of global resource dynamics, where China's dominance in critical mineral supply raises pressing concerns for the U.S. 🌏🛢️ Uncover the complex...

Resource Risks: China's Grip on Critical Minerals and America's Vulnerable Supply Chain #SupplyChain AF delves into the intricate web of global resource dynamics, where China's dominance in critical mineral supply raises pressing concerns for the U.S. 🌏🛢️ Uncover the complex...

The US Achilles' Heel: Relying on foreign minerals isn't just risky; it's our Achilles' heel. Our nation relies on imports for 31 out of 35 critical minerals, with over half sourced from regions where geopolitical tensions could rapidly disrupt the supply. Here's the kicker: China holds about 80% of the rare earth market. This dominance isn't just a supply issue—it's a threat to our national security and economic stability. It's time to shift gears toward resource independence. Your support today is crucial for a self-reliant tomorrow. #BetterinAK https://bit.ly/43iKC78

China is facing an 'elemental struggle' on critical minerals, state media warned. An editorial published by China Daily, a prominent state-run newspaper, has outlined growing apprehension within China's leadership regarding its reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals essential to advancing clean energy technologies. Written by Wang Yongzhong, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the prominent Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the paper points to the escalating costs of importing critical minerals, linking this to policies enacted by resource-rich countries. Read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/eQAxAh9S #China #Minerals #Policy #Regulation #Costs

Over the past year, China has imposed export controls on gallium, germanium and graphite—all critical minerals necessary in important downstream goods like semiconductors. As U.S.-China competition intensifies, it’s a real possibility that China could implement further controls—even bans—on mineral exports to the United States. As the six following points explain, China’s threat to ban critical minerals exports is not a bluff, and such bans could create mineral shortages in the United States. #Gallium #Germanium #graphite China owns 98% of the gallium reserves in the world - https://lnkd.in/gPTQ7acY China owns 60% of germanium - https://lnkd.in/gerRZUdk China and graphite - https://lnkd.in/geeSgeNX Blog – Commodities – June 2024 - https://lnkd.in/gvxWjN7W   #Gallium #Germanium #criticalminerals #Graphite #CHIPS #semiconductors    Joseph Fournier      

Over the past year, China has imposed export controls on gallium, germanium and graphite—all critical minerals necessary in important downstream goods like semiconductors. As U.S.-China competition intensifies, it’s a real possibility that China could implement further controls—even bans—on mineral exports to the United States. As the six following points explain, China’s threat to ban critical minerals exports is not a bluff, and such bans could create mineral shortages in the United States. Point 1: China has previously implemented export restrictions and bans. In articles published in the Chinese Communist Party’s Global Times and with visits by President Xi Jinping to rare-earth facilities, China is signaling that it may impose consequential export controls on minerals. The precedent is there: China blocked rare earth exports to Japan in 2010 and banned exports of rare earth processing technology in 2023. Point 2: China could benefit from imposing mineral export bans. Export bans on select minerals would demonstrate that China can retaliate against U.S. efforts to curb technology exports to China—and possibly deter the United States from further restrictions, enabling China to stock up on U.S. technology. Point 3: Chinese mineral producers could likely find alternative customers to the United States. China mines 70% of the world’s rare earth elements but consumes more than 80%. In many cases, China is the largest consumer of its own critical minerals. In fact, China’s demand for many critical minerals is so high that it relies on imports to meet substantial portions of its domestic consumption.

In this US/West-China rivalry over the supply chains of critical minerals, a country like Morocco is pulling ahead even though it is not a producing country.  Its advantages? free-trade agreements with the USA and the EU, geographical proximity to Europe, political and economic stability, and a solid industrial base.  China's strategy? Quite simply, to take advantage of the "friends-shoring" of the Inflation Reduction Act.  China's unexpected allies are found among Western private companies and US-allied countries that still want to do business with Chinese companies. Mind you some of these companies are coming from US Minerals Security Partnership members. Read more on this commentary I wrote for the CSIS Africa Program Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) https://lnkd.in/gDVS9Cdb #criticalminerals #uschina #ChinaAfrica.

Countering China's Dominance in Rare-Earth Minerals It is alarming to see China's growing dominance in critical mineral markets, which are vital for the new economy, energy transition, and advanced technologies. Market manipulation and the creation of monopolies by China, with the invisible hand of Russia, represent serious economic and security challenges to the world as we know it. It is crucial for allied nations to take coordinated measures to diversify and protect their mineral supply chains. Joint action is necessary to ensure a safer, more sustainable future and world peace. Note: China's current major advantage lies in its dominance across various essential supply chains in today's economy. To reverse its disproportionate influence, this is where efforts must be focused.