Touchstone Investments’ Post

I believe the Fed will hold rates steady and avoid signaling future cuts in '24. The Fed is exercising caution to avoid the mistakes of the past. Inflation is a tricky beast, and the Fed is determined not to claim victory too soon. Instead, I think they will keep rates 'higher for longer'. What are your thoughts? #FederalReserve #Inflation #Economy

🔍📉 Is the Fed Ready to Cut Interest Rates? Dive deeper into the latest meeting minutes to uncover the truth! 💡💼 Despite cautious optimism about inflation, Fed officials are holding off on rate cuts for now. What does this mean for the economy? 🤔💸 #Fed #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook Curious to learn more? Click the in bio for the full article and stay informed! 📰💬 #StayUpdated #EconomicNews #GetInformed article: https://buff.ly/3T7nipC

Fed Governor Christopher Waller moments ago "After a run of great data in the latter half of 2023, it seemed that significant progress on inflation would continue and that rate cuts were not far off. However, the first three months of 2024 threw cold water on that outlook, as data on both inflation and economic activity came in much hotter than anticipated. Initially it seemed like the bad data might be simply a "bump" in the road, but as the data continued to point in the wrong direction, the narrative quickly turned towards concerns that the economy was not cooling as needed to keep inflation moving down toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent goal. Progress on inflation appeared to have stalled and there were fears that it might even be accelerating. Suddenly, the public debate became whether monetary policy was restrictive enough and if rate hikes should be back on the table." #interestrates #fedpolicy #higherforlonger #fiscalpolicy #inflation

It's up, It's down , it's all over town.... These Fed speeches are exhausting. The volatility in the bond market mimics this speech from moments ago. There is no confidence that inflation is moving sustainable towards 2.00% and there is no confidence from the bond market that the Fed will get it there. #mortgageadvisor #fedpolicy #interestrates Tabrasa #mortgagemarketguide

🎢 Not only has #disinflation stalled, but #inflation is accelerating. So what are the Fed’s choices? Is it higher for longer or is it the only way is up? Our brief analysis can be read here: https://ow.ly/iy5z50Rsl2H

The Fed cut rates, but that doesn't mean long-term rates will follow suit. As I reiterate again from my prior posts, factors such as inflation expectations, investor sentiment, and global demand for U.S. debt play a significant role in shaping longer term rates. The Fed influences short-term borrowing costs and the long end of the curve can still rise, impacting long-term borrowing. #MortgageRates #InterestRates #FinancialPlanning #FedPolicy #InvestmentStrategy

Core inflation in the U.S. for December was only 2.9% y/y. This continued improvement will no doubt be welcome at the Fed.  However, the personal spending numbers that were also released this morning, point to continued (and quite surprising) strength in consumer spending (up 0.7% m/m, and last month revised higher as well).  This is at odds with the Fed's aim, which is to cool down the economy. We think they need to keep rates higher for longer, before declaring victory. #fixedincome #bonds #bondinvesting #interestrates #unconstrained #inflation Disclaimer: http://bit.ly/2ukaOCr Etienne Bordeleau Nick Warwick, CFA, MBA Thoughts from the Fixed Income Team

Remember in 2021 when the “experts agreed” that inflation would be transitory? The Fed said it, the Treasury said it. I kept receipts. Inflation turned out to be anything but transitory over the following years. So did you believe the forecasting at the beginning of this year when we were told rate cuts were a question of when – not if? Well, the Fed left interest rates unchanged yesterday as we continue to suffer the worst inflation crisis in 40 years. Clay D. Bellows understands valuation and economics and helped me see why inflation would persist. #Forecasting #RiskFreeRate #Inflation

Fed Chair Powell's recent comments on inflation progress are encouraging, but caution remains: ◾Inflation is moving in the right direction, but the Fed wants more confidence before cutting rates. ◾ The Fed is balancing risks: acting too soon could undo progress, while waiting too long might slow economic growth. ◾ Current expectations are for 1-2 potential rate cuts this year, down from earlier predictions. As we navigate these economic shifts, it's crucial to stay informed and maintain a balanced, long-term perspective on your financial strategy. 💼💡 #FederalReserve #EconomicOutlook #FinancialPlanning Source: https://lnkd.in/g4EQ8Th9

We continue to believe that moderating inflation will allow the Fed to ease by year end. This is why we currently have a minimal cash weight, which pushes out our duration. Yet there are plenty of reasons to believe that this result won't translate into meaningful declines in bonds yields across the entire yield curve. For example, the labor market remains resilient supporting growth and has the potential to keep yields higher. https://lnkd.in/grdzRJy2 #FixedIncome #Fed #AssetManagement #TouchstoneInvestments #AssetAllocation