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Co-Founder of ArcTern Ventures, Investor, Author, Speaker, Entrepreneur. 🔵🟢

Unsurprisingly, this report is getting a lot of attacks from industry. None that I’ve seen, however, credibly attack the research itself. Anyone out there able to do so? “But the research, which itself has become enmeshed in a political argument in the US, has concluded that LNG is 33% worse in terms of planet-heating emissions over a 20-year period compared with coal.”

Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds

Exported gas produces far worse emissions than coal, major study finds

theguardian.com

Christopher Harto

Using Data and Analysis to Drive a Sustainable Future

1w

I will admit I haven't dug deeply into Howarth's latest work, but the general idea that methane leaks a heck of a lot more than the industry and government sources often claim is indisputable, it's just a question of exactly how much more. As far as these types of LCA, probably the biggest potential attack angle isn't necessarily a good one for industry. It comes down to allocation of methane leakage to oil or natural gas production. I belive Howarth allocates all methane emissions to the natural gas product stream. Using economic allocation, which is probably the correct call, would lower the emissions intensity of American natural gas, but significantly increase the emissions intensity of American produced oil. The industry of course wants to play a shell game of ignoring this massive source of warming emissions from being factored into either final energy source. Either way methane leakage from the American oil and gas sector is a massive climate problem and one the industry should more forcefully be required to address.

Robert Lydan

Managing Director | Renewable Power Engineering and Consulting

1w

It is not credible as the assumption that ch4 is retained in the atmosphere like C02 is simply false. Ch4 dissipates relatively quickly. The hypothesis that CH4 is worse than coal because its liquified and some Is lost to boil off is nonsense. Bordering on conspiracy theory. I would add; please feel free to visit a lignite open pit coal mine and see the operators wearing breathing apparatus due to the vast coal seam gas ( CH4 ) being released during excavation. My point remains the suggestion that natural gas has a greater contribution to anthropogenic global warming than thermal coal is just wrong.

Ok, it took some digging, but I thought that I'd prepare the chart that most would want to see - ie, WHY are the emissions greater. The paper lists a few scenarios depending on the type of ship used for LNG transport, but I just picked one of them. Basically, 46% of the CO2e emissions come from fugitive methane I've colored blue), 3% in final distribution (leaky pipes to houses), 4% during the liquefaction process in the first place (which surprised me that that was more than the distribution number), and 38% in "upstream and midstream emissions". There are several thousand wells in Canada just venting methane, and I imagine 10s of thousands globally. This is where this comes from. More in next comment.

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Bogdan Mert

Engineering Lead, Major Projects, SSE Energy Solutions, P.Eng, MSc, CMVP

1w

The core problem is the uncontrolled methane leaks from existing decommissioned rigs (aka AOG Abandoned Oil and Gas wells) and from those still in operation. This is an asset management problem and was always there, only that we chose to ignore it and calculate the "carbon emmissions" without these emmissions. Plenty of papers and studies on this topic ( e.g. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666759224000039)

Mitchell Beer

Publisher, The Energy Mix

1w

The industry has been attacking Howarth's work since before he ever began publishing it. I covered a conference nearly 15 years ago where he described circulating his first major research piece on fracked gas for peer review. The gas lobby got wind of it and immediately tried to shut it down. That early industry pushback was what first brought the risks of methane leaks from gas production and distribution to the attention of the Obama White House -- and Howarth said they took it seriously. But, really. If the gas industry is mad at Robert Howarth, it just means it's a day ending in 'y'. As you say, I haven't seen anyone refute his actual findings.

Kirsten Rosselot, P.E.

Environmental Performance Consultant | Influencing Policy, Improving Sustainability, and Bridging Gaps in Communication | Author & Educator

1w

Or they are attacking Howarth instead of the findings. There's a guy named Joseph Toomey who's crying about inaccuracies in a paper Howarth co-authored in 2011 that had mistakes but didn't do too bad on the overall numbers (pretty good considered the measured data we had on emissions 13 years ago) as if that proves Howarth can't get anything right.

Abhay Gupta, Ph.D.

Using technology and economics wisely to solve important problems. | Startups. ISO. OECD. European Investment Bank. Canadian Parliament. Oracle. | Harvard. Columbia. UBC. IITK. |

1w

I think we have to talk about the stock vs. flow tradeoffs. 1. If something helps with the current emissions faster, while we develop a more carbon-efficient ways to produce, we should consider reduction in flow as a higher weight than future impact of the stock. 2. This is like the discount factor used elsewhere in economics. The only tricky part is the assumption about the time trend in marginal negative impact of that emission stock in the environment.

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1/3 I have game reviewing Howarth's LCAs on methane vs others as I compared his and Jacobson's LCA on blue hydrogen vs a European LCA a couple of years ago. Communicated a bit with Howarth at the time, and we both have a chapter in a book published this year, for full disclosure. https://cleantechnica.com/2021/09/27/howarth-jacobson-blue-hydrogen-assessment-stronger-than-bauer-et-als-part-2-of-2/ Howarth published it as a preprint, which is common practice these days. Lots of constructive criticism led to improvements, but not substantive changes. The lengthiest extant critique by a PhD candidate focused on fusion energy, explicitly cold fusion's renamed sibling "low energy nuclear reactions", who has a side gig at the Breakthrough Institute is cited by Zygmunt Strawczynski. I read it when it was making the rounds earlier. Not sure why a fusion PhD candidate felt it necessary to publish a lengthy blog post on the subject, but I certainly was scratching my head about relative credibility in the space.

Philippe Dunsky

President, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors // Chair, Canada Electricity Advisory Council // Co-Chair, Efficiency Canada.

1w

In case it's helpful, my firm produced a report last year on the methane leakage side of the equation -- more specifically the opportunities to reduce leakage in (Canadian) O&G production. You can download it here: https://dunsky.com/project/methane-abatement-opportunities-in-the-oil-gas-extraction-sector/

Paul Newall

President at Newall Consulting Inc.

1w

And premier smith and PP don’t want carbon pricing because that’s a “tax” but when it comes to well/ oil sands clean up and CCUS the tax payers are on the hook incentives and the costs. Epitome of hypocrisy!

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