HCSS - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies’ Post

How much trade passes through the main Indo-Pacific maritime chokepoints? What commodities are the most traded between European and Indo-Pacific states? And why are narrow waterways such as the Suez Canal and Strait of Malacca threatened by geopolitical and security risks? In our new policy brief, we discuss these questions by providing an analysis of the trade of high, medium and low value-added goods between Asia and Europe. We also develop an assessment of geopolitical and security risks threatening the openness of maritime chokepoints. As an estimated 80% of global trade by volume and 70% by value moves via cargo ships, any significant delay caused by obstructions to maritime chokepoints could severely disrupt the global economy causing shipping delays, backlogged ports, rerouting, and disruptions of global value chains. To counterbalance the uncertainty surrounding the US ability and willingness to provide the resources necessary to keep chokepoints in the Indo-Pacific open as well as Europe’s scarce naval capability and geographical distance from many of these maritime bottlenecks, Europeans should look at enhancing their cooperation with Indo-Pacific states. Read the entire policy brief here: https://lnkd.in/effQhDyc

This is a very systematic and focused summary of various options in play right now. There are several important lessons that emerge from this document: (1) The tension between legitimacy and efficiency will continue to be a factor (2) Any new regime has to operate in a new world where the reactions of the two main (problematic) tech suppliers - China and Russia - have to be considered (3) For most of the non-Members of the MECRs, who have adopted or are thinking of adopting/adapting the EU dual-use lists, MECRs are only relevant for changes in control lists as of now, and enforcing any updates requires domestic political commitment, which changes with almost every national election. (4) UNSCR 1540 may be useful as the basis for a new regime, but its own implementation structures within the UN system would be a major obstacle. (5) The main ingredient towards any serious initiative to update the existing STC architecture to either exclude Russia and China, or to include new technologies of (economic) concern, will require a lot of political will - (a) to develop consensus among new suppliers and (b) to provide tangible incentives to those in the developing world who have yet to see the economic advantages of compliance with MECRs without being members.

Excited to share this insightful publication summarizing the 13th Chaudfontaine Group Meeting held on October 1-3, 2023! It explores the potential impacts of the ongoing geopolitical developments on future multilateral export control regimes. During my internship at ESU Uliège, I had the privilege of participating in this event where I was assigned to prepare a report, summarising the key insights discussed. The report was published on the ESU website. https://lnkd.in/dYKJdv-N Check out the publication 👇 #ChaudfontaineGroup #ESUInternship #Geopolitics #ExportControl

Thoughts on new regime issues here.

Maritime Security in Global Trade The Interconnectedness of Maritime Security & Global Trade Stability. From heightened patrols to international collaborations, to secure trade routes. Beyond safeguarding commerce, its impact resonates in stabilizing global economies. #GlobalTradeSecurity #EconomicStability #MaritimeSecurity #NavalDefense #PortSecurity #OceanSafety #MaritimeRisk #SeaProtection #MaritimeSurveillance #CoastalSecurity #MaritimePolicy #MaritimeLaw #ShipSecurity #MaritimeIntelligence #MaritimeSafety #NavalOperations #MaritimeTechnology

The Red Sea crisis, driven by Houthi rebel attacks, is causing major disruptions to vital international trade routes, particularly affecting the Suez Canal and global maritime operations, escalating regional tensions and challenging global trade security. Read the Article today: Red Sea Turmoil: Unpacking Its Impact on Global Trade Dynamics https://lnkd.in/d7RWRg28

"Hubs of Illicit Trade in the Global Economy" edited by Yulia Krylova is now in production. The book meticulously examines how centers of illicit trade pose myriad threats to global security and sustainable development. Emphasizing the phenomenon of crime convergence associated with these hubs, the book offers actionable recommendations for disrupting their interconnected illicit supply chains, infrastructures, and networks. It is the latest title in the series Routledge Transnational Crime and Corruption, edited by Louise Shelley - now part of my list. Please get in touch if you wish to find out more. https://bit.ly/4b8fQkA

In the wake of recent Red Sea attacks, our focus turns to understanding the profound implications on the world of international trade. Explore six pivotal insights shaping the narrative: 1️⃣ Disrupted Shipping Routes: Red Sea attacks have intricately disrupted crucial shipping routes, introducing delays and escalating costs across global trade networks. 2️⃣ Rising Insurance Premiums: Heightened risks have led to a surge in insurance premiums for vessels, fundamentally altering the financial dynamics of international trade. 3️⃣ Declining Investor Confidence: The aftermath of these attacks has significantly eroded investor confidence in the region's stability, potentially impacting foreign investment and trade activities. 4️⃣ Shifts in Trade Patterns: In response to heightened risks, traders are actively exploring alternative routes and transportation modes, potentially reshaping the dynamics of global trade. 5️⃣ Geopolitical Considerations: These incidents underscore broader challenges in maritime security, emphasizing the need for international cooperation to safeguard global trade interests. 6️⃣ Call to Action: A collaborative effort involving governments, international organizations, and the private sector is imperative to address maritime insecurity and fortify the resilience of the global trading system. Amidst these challenges, stakeholders must unite in a collective effort to safeguard the stability and prosperity of global trade. Kaustubh Dhargalkar Ph.D (Innovation Mgt), Piyush Goghari, Jyoti Kulkarni, Chandravadan Goritiyal, PhD, PMP®, Dr. Ragini Mohanty #RedSeaAttacks #GlobalTrade #MaritimeSecurity #TradeSecurity #CollaborationForProsperity #BusinessDesign #PGDM

Baltimore Bridge Collapse: A Tragic Tale of the Dali. Description: In this video, we delve into the tragic Baltimore Bridge Collapse caused by the container ship Dali. Join us as we explore the latest news reports and ongoing investigations surrounding this devastating incident. Stay informed and share your thoughts in the comments below. Don't forget to like and share this video to spread awareness. #BaltimoreBridgeCollapse #DaliContainerShip #NewsUpdate Follow our channel Global Trade Insights for more information on International Trade.

Navigating Geo-Political Headwinds in Maritime Logistics Sanctions, trade wars and turbulence strain shipping. But prudent operators find ways. Maintain agility to divert cargoes via secondary hubs with flexible assets. Rather than react, have open discussions to understand all perspectives. Find common grounds of dignified progress. Connect clients directly to bypass rhetoric hampering trade. Leverage neutral ports, neutrality registries where politics don’t hamstring operations. Data-driven dashboards visualize potentials to pivot as currents change. Unity mitigates uncertainties. Together establish clear baselines upholding law but guiding ethos of care, nuance over dogma. Our livelihoods interconnect - let cooperation trump grandstanding. Calm heads steer surest in storms. Focus inward on efficiency, training to weather disruptions. Outwards foster understanding, respect diversity as global citizens serving humanity with goods flowing unhindered. #GeopoliticsInShipping #TradeDisruptions #LogisticsStrategy #SecondaryHubs #FastAdaptiveNetworks #DataDrivenPivoting #GlobalCitizenship #ProgressThroughUnderstanding #UnityInAdversity