RAND’s Post

AAD member Amb. Doug Lute and Amb. Deborah McCarthy discusses the complexities of supporting Ukraine from both the United States' and NATO's perspectives. With the upcoming Washington Summit in July 2024, they also discuss a prospective future for Ukraine that would be decided during the NATO summit. https://lnkd.in/e7axQSfx

During my stays in Russia, whenever discussion of NATO occurred, I always questioned why their policy makers got so worked up about a defensive alliance that was a paper tiger. This article highlights the fragility of the alliance and the challenges it faces to remain credible after a number of course excursions post 1991: the dissolution of the Soviet empire - the embodiment of NATO's founding mission.

I recommend an interesting read from Atlantic Council regarding NATO's Washington summit communique. Especially Ann Marie Dailey's analysis regarding a missed opportunity with the absence of Latin America in the section outlining a new action plan for NATO’s southern neighborhood. China and Russia are conducting active disinformation and malign investment campaigns in South America. But unlike Africa and the Middle East, Latin America remains relatively stable, and it has significant economic and political cooperation potential with NATO allies. NATO

If the roles were reversed and Russia was cozying up to countries near the US, like Canada, it's certain the US would react strongly. Yet, everyone seemed to expect Russia to remain passive as they encroached on their territory. In the end, both sides share the blame for the Ukraine crisis. It's like a "Game of chicken where nobody wants to blink first, but everyone ends up getting hurt" As NATO celebrates it’s 75th Anniversary today. It's commitment to collective defence, peace and safeguarding member states from external threats are now needed more than ever before!! Since it's inception in 1949, NATO still stands as the world’s oldest military alliance of democratic nations. Wrote an opinion piece on "NATO at 75: From divided past to unified defence" Read below to know it's historical expansion, current state and future: #geopolitics #internationalrelations #NATO #warsawpact #sovietunion #defence #security #wars

👉 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg an interview with Kyodo News emphasized the alliance's intent to intensify joint exercises with Japan across various domains such as maritime and cyberspace. This effort aims to address increasingly interconnected security challenges spanning Europe and Asia. 👉 Stoltenberg underscored the growing significance of the NATO-Japan partnership, particularly highlighted during the Ukraine crisis, which has exposed global interdependencies. 👉 He noted the participation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in NATO's top annual discussions for three consecutive years as evidence of deepening cooperation between the two sides. https://lnkd.in/gdggnBQf

"A simple truth has emerged since February 2022: the future of the transatlantic alliance rests on the future of Ukraine. The equation is simple. Europe is not secure if Ukraine is not secure, and the United States is not secure if Europe is not secure. Failure in Ukraine is not an option for the United States and its allies. As the United States and Ukraine’s allies and partners contemplate options for Ukraine’s long-term security, however, the bottom line is that the only lasting security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe is Ukraine’s membership in NATO. It will strengthen the alliance, improve deterrence, and boost capabilities." #ukraine #nato #Europe #russia

NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg: “China is the main enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine, with China continuing to sell Russia tools and technology that Moscow is using to produce its weaponry. “If China continues, they cannot have it both ways,” Stoltenberg warned. “They cannot believe that they can have a kind of normal relationship with NATO allies . . . and then continue to fuel the war in Europe.” Read our Atlantic Council live expertise and behind-the-scenes insight as NATO leaders gather at the Washington summit: https://lnkd.in/dTaiRFxt

The 75th annual NATO Summit, which took place in Washington, D.C. this week, has come to a close. Russia’s war in Ukraine dominated the summit, as the alliance unveiled plans to intensify support for Kyiv and offer an “irreversible” path to eventual membership in the defense pact. But, the summit was heavy on promises and light on plans, writes Amy MacKinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy. “The summit also highlighted a central tension in Western strategy to support Ukraine: Military aid has played a decisive role in enabling Kyiv to fend off Russian forces, but it has fallen short of enabling it to actually win the war,” she writes. https://lnkd.in/geW--Z3E In my forthcoming article, I argue that while NATO membership promises security and deterrence against further aggression, it risks escalating tensions and prolonging the war. Conversely, opting out of NATO might facilitate a negotiated settlement, potentially ending hostilities but leaving Ukraine vulnerable. This dilemma encapsulates the strategic complexities NATO and Ukraine face, navigating the delicate balance between security aspirations and the urgent need for peace, as well as reflecting ongoing debates within the alliance.

The 75th annual NATO Summit, which took place in Washington, D.C. this week, has come to a close. Russia’s war in Ukraine dominated the summit, as the alliance unveiled plans to intensify support for Kyiv and offer an “irreversible” path to eventual membership in the defense pact. But, the summit was heavy on promises and light on plans, writes Amy MacKinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy. “The summit also highlighted a central tension in Western strategy to support Ukraine: Military aid has played a decisive role in enabling Kyiv to fend off Russian forces, but it has fallen short of enabling it to actually win the war,” she writes. https://lnkd.in/geW--Z3E In my forthcoming article, I argue that while NATO membership promises security and deterrence against further aggression, it risks escalating tensions and prolonging the war. Conversely, opting out of NATO might facilitate a negotiated settlement, potentially ending hostilities but leaving Ukraine vulnerable. This dilemma encapsulates the strategic complexities NATO and Ukraine face, navigating the delicate balance between security aspirations and the urgent need for peace, as well as reflecting ongoing debates within the alliance.

The 75th annual NATO Summit, which took place in Washington, D.C. this week, has come to a close. Russia’s war in Ukraine dominated the summit, as the alliance unveiled plans to intensify support for Kyiv and offer an “irreversible” path to eventual membership in the defense pact. But, the summit was heavy on promises and light on plans, writes Amy MacKinnon, a national security and intelligence reporter at Foreign Policy. “The summit also highlighted a central tension in Western strategy to support Ukraine: Military aid has played a decisive role in enabling Kyiv to fend off Russian forces, but it has fallen short of enabling it to actually win the war,” she writes. https://lnkd.in/geW--Z3E In my forthcoming article, I argue that while NATO membership promises security and deterrence against further aggression, it risks escalating tensions and prolonging the war. Conversely, opting out of NATO might facilitate a negotiated settlement, potentially ending hostilities but leaving Ukraine vulnerable. This dilemma encapsulates the strategic complexities NATO and Ukraine face, navigating the delicate balance between security aspirations and the urgent need for peace, as well as reflecting ongoing debates within the alliance.