RAND’s Post

The summit comes at a critical time for the Alliance, as members navigate ongoing #conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, rising geopolitical tensions, and consequential elections in its leading member states. Indeed, discussions over Ukraine, deterrence, global partnership, and the turnover from longtime NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Mark Rutte are expected to dominate the agenda. But I will be watching to note how (if?) human security will feature at the #NATOSummit

The #US can improve #Egypt’s security at minimal expense. It should do so, post-haste. #Cairo is a complicated and beleaguered—yet valuable—partner in a region of chaos. #Russia, always eager to fish in troubled waters, is on the verge of establishing an agreement with #Sudan's military government to build a permanent #navalbase in the #RedSea. https://lnkd.in/dU-uj4yv.

🚨 WARNING 🚨 The situation between the Democratic Republic of Congo 🇨🇩 and Rwanda 🇷🇼 is critical and requires immediate action! In a new article, we highlight the dangers of war and the dire consequences for the region. 🌍 The balkanization of the DRC and the territorial integrity of the country are at stake. We urge President Tshisekedi to take preventive measures to protect the country. 💪 Concrete actions are necessary: cleansing the Congolese armed forces, breaking agreements with Rwanda and Uganda, military support for the SADC and partnerships with the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. 🔒 Before making decisions that could result in war, it is essential to heed these warnings and prepare adequately. 🙏 Share this article to raise awareness of the urgency of the situation and encourage leaders to act preventively! #PeaceFortheDRC #StopWarDRCwanda 💻 Read the full article here 👉 [Link to article]

My latest piece for The Guardian: Sweden is now ready to join Nato, but it does not seem ready for war. Three decades of foreign investments from adversarial countries has left the country vulnerable. Recent reports by the Swedish Defence Research Agency suggest countless examples of conflicts of interest between the long-term national security interests of Sweden and the short-term interests of businesses and municipal governments, selling infrastructure to foreign companies and adversaries. For the most part, this conflict has been resolved by ignoring the national security concerns. https://lnkd.in/ehtgepa6

On 14 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg released his Annual Report for 2023. I was happy to coordinate the drafting of the Annual Report for the second year in a row. The Report is available at the following link: https://lnkd.in/dtymvJEq In the face of a complex security environment in 2023, NATO grew bigger and stronger. The Alliance welcomed its 31st member, Finland, and continued the accession process for the 32nd, Sweden, which was completed earlier this month. At the Vilnius Summit, NATO agreed new robust defence plans, advancing the biggest overhaul of Allied deterrence and defence in generations. At Vilnius, NATO and Ukraine further strengthened their ties. Allies elevated political dialogue with Kyiv, establishing the NATO-Ukraine Council. NATO also expanded practical cooperation with Ukraine, from non-lethal support to innovation, resilience, good governance and WPS, among others. Defence spending rose by an unprecedented 11% in 2023, with more and more countries reaching the target of spending 2% of GDP on defence. See more details at: https://lnkd.in/dmqdWN2R The annual survey of Allied citizens, including Finland and Sweden, shows strong support for the transatlantic bond: over 80 percent of NATO citizens believe that North America and Europe must continue to work together for our shared security. A majority of citizens also believes that their country should continue to support Ukraine (63%). And 77% of Allied citizens argue their country should maintain or expand its investment in defence. More details at: https://lnkd.in/dbssJmxM Other highlights of 2023 include: the new Defence Production Action Plan; protecting critical undersea infrastructure; the first innovation challenges through DIANA; more than 800 exercises; KFOR’s support to stability in the Western Balkans; disaster relief assistance to Allies and partners; and closer cooperation with partners.

Japan turns to Southeast Asia to boost security network Happy to share with you my latest analysis on Asian defense and security issues: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Sunday wrapped up a three-day trip to Southeast Asia, where he sought to strengthen Japan's security and defense ties with Malaysia and the Philippines, both of which are expected to benefit from Tokyo’s recently launched military aid program. The visits, Kishida’s first to each country as prime minister, are part of Tokyo’s efforts to expand and bolster its network of security partners amid growing concerns that its defense alliance with the United States won't be enough to counterbalance China's growing military might. At a joint news conference near Kuala Lumpur alongside Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on Sunday, Kishida said the two leaders had discussed “accelerating coordination to implement” Tokyo’s new Official Security Assistance program — though it was not immediately clear how much progress the two sides had made. A day earlier in Manila, Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced the beginning of talks on what is known as a reciprocal access agreement (RAA) — a pact that provides the legal framework for greater bilateral security cooperation — while expanding trilateral ties with their common defense ally, the United States. Kishida also revealed that Tokyo would provide coastal surveillance radars via a grant worth ¥600 million ($4 million), making Manila the first beneficiary of the OSA program. The announcement came just a day after Tokyo said it had delivered the first air surveillance radar system that Manila bought from Japan under a 2020 contract Click here to find out more... https://lnkd.in/gk-Mfj7Y

EUROPEAN DEFENCE & SECURITY SUMMIT 2024 In her opening speech at the summit, Ludivine Dedonder briefly outlined the following points. 🌍 Strengthening Defense and Solidarity:  First of all, Minister underlined Belgium's firm determination to strengthen its defense capacity and deepen its support to Ukraine. He underlined that they will continue to focus on improving technology within the armed forces, increasing interoperability and fostering strong partnerships, with a large amount of strategic investment planned and increased until 2030. Unwavering Support for Ukraine: Belgium's support for Ukraine is unwavering and multifaceted; She stated that these include military, financial and humanitarian aid. She also mentioned that, as the Belgian state, they are committed to the modernization of the Ukrainian armed forces and the provision of long-term security guarantees, and that this commitment goes beyond the military sphere, addressing broader social challenges, and that these efforts strengthen the foundations of our democracy. Developing Partnerships and Interoperability: In her speech, Mrs. Minister also emphasized the importance of coordinated defense efforts with allies and interoperable systems. This strategic approach will not only strengthen collective defense capabilities, but also solidify our unity. Future Vision: "These efforts are vital not only for today's challenges, but also for shaping the future of the European Union. We stand together in our mission to defend democratic values and ensure peace and stability in Europe for future generations." Let us continue to stand united and resilient as we build a safe and prosperous future for all. #DefenceSummit #Solidarity #FutureOfEurope #SupportUkraine

It's hard to believe it's already been six months since the Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel. The OnSolve team continues to provide 24-7 monitoring and analysis on this conflict and the dynamic, global risk it's driving. Our clients are also asking, "what's next?" To help give us perspective, we asked a career U.S. military officer and urban combat veteran to weigh in. His insights can be found on this week's guest blog: https://lnkd.in/ecjYHM6A