RAND’s Post

🌍 NATO, once cautious to avoid mentioning Russia during military manoeuvres to prevent provocation, has seen a paradigm shift with Sweden and Finland joining the alliance in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Omar Khram examines the diplomatic journey Sweden took to NATO membership, emphasising the resistance from Türkiye and Hungary due to security concerns and political grievances. However, Khram views the eventual admission of Sweden into NATO, underscored by Victor Orban's unexpected support, as evidence of the alliance's resilience and capacity to navigate global threats. This development, according to Khram, redefines alliance politics and demonstrates the adaptability of international institutions despite rhetoric. #NATO #russia #ukraine #russiaukrainewar #sweden #hungary #turkey https://lnkd.in/eWH4u5xW

Ukraine Needs a ‘Wet Gap Crossing’ to NATO "It’s time to use the U.S. military’s playbook for building a wartime bridge to Ukraine. The Biden administration sometimes refers to the need to build a 'bridge' to NATO membership for Ukraine. It’s an apt metaphor—just not in the way its proponents might think. One might think of a bridge as a mere symbol of hope. But, invoked in a military context, a bridge is best understood in its role as wartime infrastructure. And that metaphor works precisely because building a bridge in wartime is an incredibly difficult and complex operation—one that military planners call a 'wet gap crossing'. Conducting a contested wet gap crossing is perilous—see Ukraine’s evisceration of a Russian battalion attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in May 2022—but the possible strategic rewards are high. In 1944, George S. Patton’s Third Army crossed the Moselle River at Nancy, turning the German defensive line and opening a strategic position for the Battle of the Bulge. Much like a wet gap crossing, bringing Ukraine into NATO would be risky and costly, but it could lead to strategic success. If NATO nations are truly serious about bringing Ukraine into NATO, then creating a bridge to NATO cannot just be a clever diplomatic metaphor, and it should not be attempted merely in order to get to the other side, like the Russians at Siverskyi Donets. It has to be approached like the difficult, sophisticated, multifaceted operation that it is, and it must be part of a broader strategy for postwar Euro-Atlantic security, as was the Moselle crossing in World War II. Diplomats and politicians planning for Ukraine’s future role in NATO at July’s NATO summit in Washington would do well to understand the U.S. military’s own approach to wet gap crossings. The lessons are instructive—and sobering." #nato #ukraine #strategy

18 Mar 08:15: Me: ‘Please study the simple tables’: With thanks to Roman 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇺🇦: ‘Anyone who says that NATO provoked russia to attack Ukraine is either stupid, brainwashed or simply doesn’t know the history. To the contrary, a simple cause-and-effect analysis shows that it was russia who pushed Ukraine towards NATO. Until 2013, only about 20-30% of Ukrainians (depending on the poll) were in favor of joining NATO. After the annexation of Crimea, that number went up to more than 50%. And now, after the full scale invasion, close to 90% of Ukrainians say that they want Ukraine to join NATO. Also, it was russian aggression that forced Sweden and Finland to join NATO. And why did russia not attack Finland? By having Finland join NATO, the land border between russia and NATO has doubled! The only reason why russia attacked Ukraine is the russian imperialistic ambitions’: And thank you, Nikki 🇳🇿🇺🇦:

A very accurate and realistic approach.

Sweden’s recent ascension to NATO (along with neighboring Finland, which joined last year) marked the completion of a decades-long evolution between the two famously non-aligned nations and the NATO alliance. This excellent Deutsche Welle analysis traces Sweden’s long journey to full NATO status. Highlighted along the way are related moves by Sweden (most notably membership in the European Union) and how Russia’s long history of armed aggression against neighboring nations progressively moved Sweden closer to NATO membership. Also highlighted are the positive implications for western defense in the Baltic region with both Sweden and Finland as full members of the alliance.

Anyone who says that NATO provoked russia to attack Ukraine is either stupid, brainwashed or simply doesn’t know the history. To the contrary, a simple cause-and-effect analysis shows that it was russia who pushed Ukraine towards NATO. Until 2013, only about 20-30% of Ukrainians (depending on the poll) were in favor of joining NATO. After the annexation of Crimea, that number went up to more than 50%. And now, after the full scale invasion, close to 90% of Ukrainians say that they want Ukraine to join NATO. Also, it was russian aggression that forced Sweden and Finland to join NATO. And why did russia not attack Finland? By having Finland join NATO, the land border between russia and NATO has doubled! The only reason why russia attacked Ukraine is the russian imperialistic ambitions.

Top NATO diplomats decide to create bloc’s mission on Ukraine — Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski noted that the mission will not participate in combat in Ukraine BRUSSELS/ The North Atlantic Treaty Organization will create a mission to support Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said following a meeting of top NATO diplomats in Brussels. "We have made the decision to establish a NATO mission [on Ukraine]. This doesn’t mean that we’re entering the war, but rather that we’ll now be able to utilize NATO’s coordinating, training and planning capabilities to support [Ukraine] in a better manner," the Polish Foreign Ministry quoted him as saying on the X social network. Earlier, Sikorski announced plans on creating such a mission before the meeting in Brussels. He noted that the mission will not participate in combat in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron said on February 26 that some 20 Western countries taking part in a recent Paris meeting on further assistance for Kiev had discussed the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine. According to the French leader, no consensus was reached on the issue but such a possibility cannot be ruled out in the future. After the meeting, most of the countries that took part in it, including Poland, stated that they had no plans to send troops to Ukraine and oppose the idea of direct involvement in military operations against Russia. #business #finance #financialservices

The US has a historic opportunity to lock in Ukraine policy’s successes at the 2024 NATO Summit by opening accession to Ukraine. Integrating Ukraine into NATO reduces the likelihood that the US military will become overextended. NATO’s military planners estimate that it will take three to five years for Russia to rebuild and modernize its military into a more sophisticated force than it was before 2022. If Russia is not deterred, a renewal of its militarism could coincide with a confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan. https://lnkd.in/dHp947eP

Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration and NATO membership were strategic goals under the Kuchma and Yushchenko administrations in the 2000s, well before the 2014 Maidan revolution and Russia's annexation of Crimea. This suggests Ukraine's NATO aspirations are not solely a function of U.S. manipulation.

From Cold War to the Ukraine War: NATO at 75 Here are some facts and figures about the organisation forged in the Cold War and re-energised by Russia's war on Ukraine. https://lnkd.in/dAqPMy-J