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For the confirmed Ethereum ETFs launches today at 9:30am ET, it's crucial to understand the nuanced dynamics of potential inflows, outflows, and their impact on the market. Let's break down the data: Inflow Projections: 📍 Industry estimates range from $500M to $2B per month. 📍 That data suggests $800M-$1.2B of monthly inflows. 📍 These projections are based on market cap weighted averages of Bitcoin ETF inflows. Supply Dynamics: 📍 Current staked ETH: 33.4M (117 Billion) 📍 This represents approximately 28% of total ETH supply 📍 Staked ETH effectively reduces the liquid supply, potentially amplifying price movements Liquidity Factors: 📍 ETH has lower liquid supply compared to BTC due to: a) Native staking (33.4M ETH) b) Supply locked in smart contracts (9.1M ETH) However, the liquidity gap isn't as wide as perceived: 📍 ETH's orderbook depth (±2%) is about 80% of BTC's Potential Outflows: 📍 ETHE (Grayscale Ethereum Trust) conversions could lead to initial outflows 📍 Unlike GBTC, ETHE has been trading near par value for months, potentially mitigating sell pressure 📍 Grayscale's new "mini trust" with competitive fees may retain more assets Reflexivity and Ecosystem Impact: 📍 ETH price increase → Increased DeFi activity → Higher ETH burning rate → Reduced supply → Further price increase 📍 $68B of value locked in Ethereum DeFi protocols (20M ETH) 📍 ETF inflows could trigger a positive feedback loop in the broader Ethereum ecosystem Comparative Analysis: 📍 ETH ETF flows are expected to be proportional to market cap relative to BTC 📍 Global crypto ETP data suggests market cap weighted allocation is the dominant strategy Additional Considerations: 📍 Potential rotational flows from BTC ETFs to ETH ETFs 📍 TradFi understanding of Ethereum's value proposition 📍 Possibility of staked ETH ETFs in the future, offering yield opportunities This data paints a picture of a complex, interconnected ecosystem where ETF flows could have far-reaching implications. However, it's crucial to note that while these factors may significantly influence mid- to long-term trends, short-term market movements are often driven more by prevailing narratives and sentiment. (Source chart ASXN)

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Interesting. I wonder if there will come a point where it is hard to differentiate in the crypto space based on your data analysis, simply because the data is there for anyone to look at.

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Harvey L.

Building Tokenization Insight | Research, Content & GTM | Follow to learn. DM to partner | I write about tokenization adoption trends & help tokenization projects avoid pitfalls

1mo

Great contextual framing. Question: while all of this analysis of flows and technical factors are interesting, what are factors behind ETH's consistent underperformance vs BTC even in the days leading up to the ETF launch?

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