Novig’s Post

Novig is transforming the industry by launching the first national sports exchange. No more betting against exploitative sportsbooks. When you play on Novig, we connect you with other users in the community so you get 3-5% better odds and a fair shot at winning. Our peer-to-peer exchange model means you're no longer limited to playing against the house. → Bet where winners are welcome and you’re 10x more likely to win compared to other sportsbooks → Offer your own odds and let others bet against you → Compete directly against others in the Novig community For the everyday sports fan, it's like your sportsbook but with prices 3-5% better across the board. No more lining the pockets of massive operators. Join the movement and check us out at https://www.novig.us/

Co-founder & CTO of Novig, Kelechi Ukah, had some interesting thoughts about online echo chambers on the latest Linecraft. He emphasized that even if you’re someone that reads widely, your views are still skewed by the sliver of opinions the algorithm feeds you. Those hot takes that don't drive engagement end up lost in the digital void, hidden from your timeline. So good luck factoring those into your worldview. Kelechi’s points speak to the paradox of digital wisdom. In an age of infinite feeds, wisdom may mean embracing what we don't know. We may be swimming in information these days, but the reality is we only see our little curated slice. Definitely a perspective shifter that will have you re-examining your own blindspots and biases. — How do you step outside your own algorithmic bubble? If this hits home for you too, Kelechi has tons more insights to share in the full episode. Tune in for the full conversation at novig.us/linecraft

In the latest episode of Linecraft, we dove into the world of prediction markets with Kelechi Ukah, co-founder and CTO at Novig. We explore the intricacies of these markets, their role as potential sources of truth, and the complex factors that influence their effectiveness. From the mechanics of bounded prices to the impact of participant behavior and liquidity, we cover a wide range of topics that shed light on the assumptions and challenges inherent in prediction markets. We also touch on the interplay between narratives, human sentiment, and market outcomes, offering our takes on how these forces shape our understanding of the world around us. Here's a glimpse: – Prediction Market Mechanics – Assumptions Driving Market Efficacy – Narrative-Driven Price Movements – Event Sensitivity to Sentiment – Challenges of Belief Calibration – Ideological Diversity and Real-World Interactions

We're building the first prediction market for sports. Simple as that. When you play on Novig, instead of betting against the house, you’re matched directly against friends or strangers. We give you the industry’s best prices and if you don’t like the odds you see, we let you be the bookmaker, offering your own odds and competing against real people in the Novig community. This means you can: - Be a price maker, not just a price taker - Join a level playing field through a two-sided marketplace - Experience a more social, transparent, and fair environment For casual players, it's like DraftKings or Fanduel but with 5% better prices across the board and a more social way of betting. For more advanced players, it means greater EV, no limits or lockouts, and a trading experience you would expect on a prediction market or stock market. Check us out and learn more at https://www.novig.us/

When it comes to analytics and model building, sophistication isn't everything. Try focusing less on the complexity of the models themselves and more on: → Formulating the right questions to answer → Developing strong fundamental ideas → Prioritizing quality data inputs over fancy techniques Even the most intricate model will only perform as well as the information you feed it. The true art lies in clearly defining the core problem you're trying to solve. Framing that central question thoughtfully is what guides you to meaningful insights. So resist getting swept up in the allure of elaborate methods and mathematics. Instead, strive for simplicity and clarity of purpose in your work. — How do you balance the technical demands of modeling with strategic thinking? Shoutout to Judah Fortgang, R&D & Betting @ PFF, for joining us on this week’s episode of Linecraft: novig.co/linecraft

On this episode of Linecraft, Jacob Fortinsky was joined by Judah Fortgang, an expert in sports analytics and a professional bettor. With a background in political philosophy and a passion for sports, Judah has carved out a unique niche in the world of sports betting. He currently works in R&D and betting at Pro Football Focus (PFF), where he leverages his analytical skills and deep understanding of football to identify edges in the betting markets. Throughout our conversation, Judah shared his approach to gaining an edge in sports betting by challenging conventional wisdom and looking beyond surface-level trends. By combining rigorous analysis with a willingness to question established norms, Judah has developed a winning strategy that can help bettors at all stages step up their game and get more wins. Here's a glimpse of what gets covered in the episode: - [05:00] The transition from political philosophy to sports analytics - [11:36] Weighing the impact of different positions and player grades - [16:15] Handicapping strategy and building models from first principles - [27:03] Mastering the art of the same game parlay - [32:14] Market taking vs market making: Pros, cons, and the future of exchanges - [39:47] Reflecting on trends and the evolution of football analytics - [44:12] Advice for aspiring analysts: Focus on questions over model complexity - [50:55] Bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season Catch the full episode with Judah Fortgang here: novig.co/linecraft

You can learn a lot about your team by playing poker with them in the office. These casual games give a chance to assess everyone's risk appetite. → Are they aggressive? → Conservative? → Prone to tilting? It all comes out at the poker table. This isn't a groundbreaking idea, by the way. Because the truth is, these games are a window into how people's minds work. What you can learn in a few hands of poker can sometimes say more than a resume ever could. ___ Do you have any surprising methods for evaluating someone's risk tolerance? Don't miss this week's episode of Linecraft for more from guest Isaac Rose-Berman! The full episode is now live at novig.co/linecraft

Isaac Rose-Berman recommended some killer resources for sports bettors on Linecraft this week: Podcasts: → Be Better Bettors → Bet The Process → Avoid The Trap Books: → ‘Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets’ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb → ‘Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts’ by Annie Duke Isaac credits all of these for helping him navigate the world of sports betting. Hopefully they will for you too. — What's your favorite book or podcast about betting? Comment below! Hear more from Isaac Rose-Berman on this week's episode, releasing this Wednesday.

There's a common mistake that many new sports bettors fall into. It's not a lack of knowledge or even picking the wrong winner. The real bankroll killer is overbetting. Someone starts with $1,000 and promptly fires $333.33 on three different games. All it takes is a bad run to send that bankroll up in flames. Even with the sharpest information in the world, betting 30% of your roll on a single game is simply unsustainable. Sure, you might hit a heater and run it up for a while. But eventually, the volatile swings of sports betting will catch up to you. Pros preach a strict diet of risk management and discipline. Build your bankroll slowly and steadily. Wager within your means and live to fight another day. Otherwise, you're just one cold streak away from reloading your account or worse - hanging up the cleats for good. — How do you determine the right amount to risk on a play?