NAI Capital Commercial’s Post

Has the market bottomed out? Green Street data could indicate CRE, leading with Multifamily, has bottomed out and has already started to recover. Multifamily is down 22% from the recent peak, -2% over the last 12 months, but +5% over the last month according to Green Street's CCPI index that covers #CRE prices. https://lnkd.in/gh2X5B3J One reason for the resilience in multifamily comes down to the fundamentals. Check out this recent article and data from RealPage - "U.S. Apartment Demand Surges in 2nd Quarter" https://lnkd.in/gWuv7kQ8 - 257,000 units have already been abbosrbed betwwen Q1-Q2 2024 - that's the fourth highest absorption number over the last two decades - including a few quarters iin 2021. -Apartment Occupancy and Rent Growth Stabilize. Occupancy is held speady for the last three months at 94.2% - which is honestly lackluster to what we should see during peak leasing seson, however given the supply coming online - it's amazing that we are holding. - South remains domiant for demand, but high supply is keeping rents flat or negative. -MIdwest dominates in rent growth. Low/moderate supply directly correlates to rent growth, especially if you have a market with some moderate to strong growth. ----- Supply, interest rates, insurance/tax uncertanity, inflation, etc - are all short term problems. If you buy high quality, positively leverged and cash-flowing multifamily assets, at a 20%+ discount from the peak - you're going to be thanking yourself in 4 years. Matthew Bastnagel and I broke these two articles down and more today on the Gray Report, posting later this week. Subscribe to the Gray Capital YouTube channel to watch. https://lnkd.in/gDK3zm48 #multifamly

New York City's rental market is cooling down, evidenced by Manhattan's highest vacancy rate since July 2021 at 3.4%. While Manhattan's median rent remains steady at $4,050, Brooklyn's has increased to $3,469, though still below its July peak. Appraiser Jonathan Miller predicts further rent declines in 2024 due to this increased vacancy and broader economic factors, including potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The market has seen a rise in inventory and a decrease in average rents in both boroughs. Manhattan, in particular, experienced a notable increase in new residential leases last month. #NYCRentalMarket #ManhattanRentals #BrooklynRentTrends #RealEstateEconomy #NYCHousingInventory #MarketAnalysis #RentPriceTrends #EconomicOutlook2024 #ResidentialLeasesNYC #QueensRentalMarket

Apartment demand is picking up in the Dallas-Fort Worth region, with net absorption, or the change in occupied units, of about 20,200 units over the past year. That demand level translates to 2.3% of inventory, outpacing the U.S. share of 2.1% for the first time since 2022. The share has steadily risen over the past year and though improving, it is below the pre-pandemic average of about 3% reported from 2018 to 2019. It is a reflection of Dallas-Fort Worth's outperformance in demand thanks to nation-leading population growth and a steady supply of new apartments. During the busiest year for apartment leasing, the second quarter so far has been marked by improving demand, with about 7,800 units. The rebound in net absorption reflects more units filled at the top end of the market, but it also captures steadying demand in the mid- to low-priced segments. Renter hot spots in Rockwall, Frisco and Prosper lead the market with shares of 8% to 12% of inventory. Laggards remain, however, in areas with heavier concentrations of older, midpriced units, including east Dallas and older neighborhoods in Richardson. These areas post higher vacancy rates in the three-star segment, above 10%, compared with pre-pandemic averages. About 40% of all properties in Dallas-Fort Worth are offering some form of concession to lure potential residents and serve as a catalyst for demand. Renters have more options than before, and leasing offices are working to maintain and drive occupancy. Some property management companies share that about four weeks free is most common, with some exceptions. For example, Ascend at 1385 is advertising up to eight weeks free on some floor plans. The supply-demand imbalance is expected to stabilize in the latter half of this year and into 2025. CoStar’s forecast expects about 32,300 units to be completed, with renter demand of 25,300 units at year's end. The current pipeline is anticipated to continue falling, with permitting activity pulling back in the past year. More population gains and in-migration are expected to fuel demand, yielding tightening vacancy and rebounding rent growth. By Bill Kitchens CoStar Analytics June 4, 2024 | 2:56 P.M. #multifamily #concessions

What’s new in the Philadelphia Regional Multifamily Market? Summary: Multifamily sales activity is trending upwards since last quarter! Rental growth rates are stabilizing in the mid-2% range. Construction activity is slowing down, while absorption has increased, creating a more balanced and stable multifamily market with a narrower supply and demand gap. Compared to other major metros and despite recent market challenges, Philadelphia proves to be a more stable and resilient apartment market. Inventory: 245 multifamily listings, totaling 2,775 units on the market.  Current Stats: 📈 Market Cap Rate: 6.2% 📉 Market Sale Price/Unit: $197k 💰 12 Mo Sales Volume: $682M ❗The highest recorded sales volume in five quarters ❗ 🏠 Rental Growth Rate: 2.4% ❗Philadelphia’s rent growth remains among the highest across the 15 largest U.S. apartment markets❗ 🏢 Vacancy Rate: 7.4% ~25% of apartment buildings in the city are offering concessions, compared to only 6.5% in the suburbs~ 🏗 Units Under Construction: 13,337 For more market updates and investment opportunities, sign up for our email list: https://tr.ee/nyPszHPfwt #commercialrealestate #philadelphiarealestate #realestate #realestateinvesting #retailrealestate #realestatedevelopment #commercialbroker (All information used to compose this report is sourced from Costar, August 2024.)

What’s new in the Philadelphia Regional Multifamily Market? Summary: Multifamily sales activity is trending upwards since last quarter! Rental growth rates are stabilizing in the mid-2% range. Construction activity is slowing down, while absorption has increased, creating a more balanced and stable multifamily market with a narrower supply and demand gap. Compared to other major metros and despite recent market challenges, Philadelphia proves to be a more stable and resilient apartment market. Inventory: 245 multifamily listings, totaling 2,775 units on the market. Current Stats: 📈 Market Cap Rate: 6.2% 📉 Market Sale Price/Unit: $197k 💰 12 Mo Sales Volume: $682M ❗The highest recorded sales volume in five quarters ❗ 🏠 Rental Growth Rate: 2.4% ❗Philadelphia’s rent growth remains among the highest across the 15 largest U.S. apartment markets❗ 🏢 Vacancy Rate: 7.4% ~25% of apartment buildings in the city are offering concessions, compared to only 6.5% in the suburbs~ 🏗 Units Under Construction: 13,337 For more market updates and investment opportunities, sign up for our email list: https://tr.ee/nyPszHPfwt #commercialrealestate #philadelphiarealestate #realestate #realestateinvesting #retailrealestate #realestatedevelopment #commercialbroker (All information used to compose this report is sourced from Costar, August 2024.)

Multifamily vacancy in New York is at its lowest historical rate (Source: CoStar Data 04/22/24). Earlier this month, Darren Powderly and I toured 55 Hope in Brooklyn's Williamsburg submarket. We introduced this project to our Marketplace in August ‘22 in collaboration with the sponsor, Gaia Real Estate. 55 Hope is benefiting from New York’s historically low apartment vacancy rate, which averaged just 1.4% through the first half of 23, according to Costar. In speaking with the sponsor, we learned that the property is currently 98.3% occupied and 100% leased. Driven by a tight market, the project’s combination of a relatively desirable location, modern living spaces, and amenity enhancements has led to substantial rent appreciation - February rents are up 34% since October 22’ with Net Operating Income up 43%, which compares favorably to Williamsburg’s relatively tepid submarket growth rate of 1.8% within the last year. Takeaway: When looking at densely populated urban locations, renovated multifamily properties that are located in close proximity to transit and quality retail districts have the potential to remain in demand. 55 Hope is one such example. #cre #investing #apartments #multifamily

📊 Market Update: Metro Atlanta Rental Housing - Multifamily Metro Atlanta is thriving as the 5th largest multifamily market with a remarkable 525,783 completed units and 163,562 units currently in development. Notably, 38,074 of these units have already broken ground. 🏙️ Despite a slight decrease in new lease asking rents, which now average $1,639 (down 3.4% YoY), the demand for multifamily housing remains robust. In the past twelve months, we’ve seen a net absorption of 9,580 units—an impressive increase from the previous year’s 3,049 units. 📈 Employment growth in Atlanta has also been positive, with a 1.3% rise over the past year. Additionally, hourly wages have increased by 0.8% YoY, now averaging $33.92 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 💼💵 At Sharkey Real Estate, we’re closely monitoring these trends to provide you with the best investment opportunities and insights. Stay tuned for more updates! #RealEstate #Atlanta #MultifamilyMarket #Investment #MarketTrends #SharkeyRealEstate

Interesting article about the fall in median rent in Manhattan. Real estate is local but is this a Manhattan problem or sign of things to come more broadly? Interesting to see. https://lnkd.in/gapqReyc

With growing inflation, there has been a boosting demand for Denver's middle tier apartments. In 2022, the market witnessed negative net absorption, with 570 more move-outs than move-ins. The demand for three-star apartments saw a decline towards the end of 2022 and early 2023, due to the inflation pressures. This created additional financial challenges for many. The average asking rent for a one-bed, three star apartment in Denver is now $1,645 after rising within the last year. https://lnkd.in/g8Ru2qQC - #inflation #renting #apartmentliving #realestate

For the first time since 2020, asking rents across all unit types have seen a decline, signaling a shift in the multifamily market. Here's the breakdown: National Median Rent: Dropped to $1,647, down $53 from the 2022 peak. Rental Declines: Studios and 1-bedroom units saw minimal decreases, while larger 3-bedroom units experienced a 2.4% drop. Vacancy Rates: A steady national vacancy rate of 6.6%, with larger buildings hitting 7.8%, suggests an oversupply contributing to lower rents. Regional Impact: Texas and Florida, bustling with construction, lead with the most significant rent declines, notably in Austin and Jacksonville. This trend offers potential savings for renters, particularly families looking for more space. #Colliers #Pittsburgh #MoreIn24 #ThriveIn25 #ClosersCoffee #ColliersCapitalMarkets https://lnkd.in/e43Wya8M