Natural gas facilities in ERCOT are being overworked more than ever to accommodate intermittent renewable generation as Texas heads into some troubling days ahead. The previous maximum one-hour ramp (7,760 MW) for NG plants in ERCOT has already been surpassed 4 times this winter. The latest max, occurring on January 12 and reaching 9,918 MW, eclipsed the previous benchmark by 28 percent. In every case, these ramps occurred when wind and solar generation dropped for a combined 10-12 GW in one hour - representing between 22 and 24 percent of demand at the time. Based on EIA data.
The duck curve strikes again
If the wind stops blowing at night when solar is not producing (or if solar panels are covered in snow during day or wind turbines freeze off), AND if any natural gas production get's shut in due to loss of power, we have a problem. NO DISPATCHABLE RESERVE CAPACITY. We need gas generators paid to be in reserve (demand charge revenue), it will take three years to build gas generators and pipelines and transmission. Plus a change in ERCOT policy to incentivize building enough reserve gas generation...Next 3 winters look tough.
Rapid ramping of power plants is like running wind sprints, except rapid load reduction is also problematic. Plant trips are most likely to occur during the ramps. Older plant are even more susceptible to problems. I don't have this winter's summary, but in 2021 ERCOT published a list of plants available, and I researched and sorted the list by plant type and age. Remember, power plant years are like dog years. Expect 60 to 80 year old's to run wind sprints and not expect casualties and fallout?
Have you guys had any luck getting heat rate tables under various ramp loads for various kinds of thermal plants?
We need more than double the nuclear we have now
So thankful there have been lessons learned and we have the ability to ramp up gas generation to keep the electric heat on today in north-central Texas as it was 12 degrees F with a minus 1 windchill (that’s -11 and -18 for you Celsius folks).
Interesting stuff. Thanks for highlighting, quantifying, and providing historical context to the flexibility/ramping of NG generation.
What would happen if we are foolish enough to get rid of NG in Texas?
CEO at Outlaw Ventures | Powering Digital Infrastructure | Energy Realist
9moThen, inevitably, when a gas unit trips offline and prices spike (and/or loads are shed), the wind and solar crowd will point fingers and exclaim, “These thermals are so unreliable!”