McGrath Estate Agents’ Post

State of Australian Cattle herd A couple of weeks ago I released our 2024 Australian cattle market outlook. In it I proposed - based on our modelling - that the Australian breeder inventory would remain static in 2024. Slaughter numbers, I projected - would increase by 15% and production, with slightly lighter carcase weights, would increase 10%. Clients can view the report here https://lnkd.in/grpXswHA Last week the ABS released their Q1 slaughter and production numbers. Cattle slaughter numbers were up 17% - reassuring given my projection. But the interesting thing was the proportion of females in the total slaughter numbers - 47%. Anecdotally it is believed that a percentage that high - and it was 49% and 53% in the previous two quarters - suggest herd liquidation, that is we are slaughtering more females and retaining less in the herd. Interestingly in 2018-2020 and 2014-2015 the female percentage of total slaughter was above 50%. Given those that I have spoken to I don't feel we are in a liquidation phase, but rather a state of balance with little rebuild or liquidation pressures in the system. But I would be interested in your thoughts. Let me know.

📊 Beef market update: supplies weigh on Irish market We recap the key trends in the Irish beef market, the outlook for the rest of the year, and what this could mean for the UK. Key points: 🐂 Irish finished cattle prices have trodden a similar path to last year, but increased supply has kept prices a few cents back. 🐂 Firm beef demand in the UK and EU have boosted Irish export volumes and supported prices. 🐂 Current Irish cattle population data points to lower slaughter cattle availability towards the end of 2024 and into 2025. From a supply perspective, factoring in UK and EU outlooks would suggest underlying support for European cattle prices generally. Read the full article ▶ https://lnkd.in/eveqK89Z

Beef and Veal Outlook - DAFF Key Points: - Value of beef, veal and live cattle production to rise by 25% to $15.7 billion in 2024–25. - Value of beef and live cattle exports to increase by 6% to $13.0 billion in 2024–25. - Beef export prices to rise in 2024–25. - Saleyard prices expected to rise in 2024–25, reflecting increased restocker demand. - Value of beef production over the medium term to fluctuate with changes in seasonal conditions. *Credit - Alistair Reid.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has radically altered its assessment of beef herd size in Australia, following changes in data collection and methodology. ABS’s revised estimate released today for herd size at the end of June last year is 27.8 million head, whereas its previous estimate was 24.4 million – a massive difference of 3.4 million head, or 14pc Read for free 👉 https://loom.ly/KI1NMW8

As the year swiftly draws to a close, markets are experiencing increased volatility. This fluctuation is likely influenced by both the seasonality of the holidays and the uncertainty surrounding demand as we move into 2024. The recently released Cattle on Feed reports further compound this uncertainty. According to the USDA, there is a 2% year-over-year increase in the total number as of November 1. This is attributed to a 4% rise in the number of cattle placed on feed in October, coupled with a 3% decline in the number of fed cattle marketed compared to the previous year. 📊🐄 #MarketVolatility #YearEndMarkets #CattleOnFeed #USDAReports #MarketUncertainty #EconomicOutlook

U.S. cattle and beef trade with Mexico has evolved a great deal over many years. Mexico became one of the major beef export destinations about 25 years ago. In the last dozen years, Mexico has become one of the major beef import sources for the U.S. as beef trade evolved from simply supplementing deficit beef production in Mexico to bilateral, product specific trade between the two countries.

OIG News | Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2024: Finding a Balance but Building Forward Momentum The #Australian #cattle market is in a state of balance, but upside exists toward the end of the year. Currently, the absence of strong demand, the higher herd inventory, and the lack of real liquidation or rebuilding urgency mean cattle prices are more exposed to movements in producer sentiment, which in turn is highly dependent on seasonal conditions. However, we feel global beef demand, led by the #US market, will start to have a stronger influence on the Australian cattle market as the year progresses, providing upside to cattle prices. There are a couple of known unknowns to watch. With a heavily producer-influenced market, any negative seasonal change could see producer sentiment deteriorate and prices drop accordingly. Furthermore, if demand recovery in key Asian markets fails to materialise, our growing production may cause prices to fall. Given the balanced market and the expectation for stronger demand in the future, the ability to manage cattle numbers and feed availability becomes even more important. Being stuck in a reactionary market – as witnessed in 2023 – can compound any downside impacts. Understanding the sensitivity of the market, we believe it’s essential to operate within the confines of your environment while keeping a view to the future. We anticipate a stronger upside influence later in the year and into #2025. This should help with proactive decision-making and the mitigation of any downside risks. Source: Rabobank If you are interested in the latest updates in global beef market, welcome to contact us at [email protected].

EU cattle prices have risen due to limited supplies, with declines in beef production seen in key countries like Italy, Spain, and France. Cow prices have fallen while sheep prices surged, especially in Spain, while sheep meat production declined across the EU. The short-term outlook predicts further drops in beef and sheep meat production in 2024, influenced by high domestic prices and reduced consumption due to living costs. More market news: https://loom.ly/oDUTFy8 #globalfoodtrade #jblglobaltrading

OIG News | Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2024: Finding a Balance but Building Forward Momentum The #Australian #cattle market is in a state of balance, but upside exists toward the end of the year. Currently, the absence of strong demand, the higher herd inventory, and the lack of real liquidation or rebuilding urgency mean cattle prices are more exposed to movements in producer sentiment, which in turn is highly dependent on seasonal conditions. However, we feel global beef demand, led by the #US market, will start to have a stronger influence on the Australian cattle market as the year progresses, providing upside to cattle prices. There are a couple of known unknowns to watch. With a heavily producer-influenced market, any negative seasonal change could see producer sentiment deteriorate and prices drop accordingly. Furthermore, if demand recovery in key Asian markets fails to materialise, our growing production may cause prices to fall. Given the balanced market and the expectation for stronger demand in the future, the ability to manage cattle numbers and feed availability becomes even more important. Being stuck in a reactionary market – as witnessed in 2023 – can compound any downside impacts. Understanding the sensitivity of the market, we believe it’s essential to operate within the confines of your environment while keeping a view to the future. We anticipate a stronger upside influence later in the year and into #2025. This should help with proactive decision-making and the mitigation of any downside risks. Source: Rabobank If you are interested in the latest updates in global beef market, welcome to contact us at [email protected].

Cattle Producers Advised to Manage Risk Ag Economist Recommends Ranchers Take Advantage of Low Feed Costs From an article in Progressive farmer by Jennifer Carrico Article excerpts: “The question on the minds of many beef producers is, "How soon will the herd rebuild?" In the opinion of economists like Dan Basse, that won't happen yet. Basse, an economist for AgResource Company, recently discussed his thoughts during the Feeding Quality Forum in Dodge City, Kansas. He said it's important to look at what is happening worldwide in agriculture to better understand what is happening locally. While those in the U.S. beef industry have been doing relatively well, there are some big struggles elsewhere. “…"For those of you in the cow-calf business, the times have never been better. The average estimate from universities and our calculations in terms of margins are now close to $600 per head," he said.” Link to article; https://lnkd.in/g6yRTupw