Prior to his 2023 passing, my dad and I talked almost every Sun for the past 40 yrs. Topics ranged from the sublime to the ridiculous - one we both loved was dissecting the results of our Terrible Decision Expenditures ("TDEs")...
For context, Pops was a man of science, guided by the data. An MIT biochemist, he spent much of his career leading a large market research firm. A serious, responsible guy.
But as I got older and our Sunday conversations evolved from that of parent-child to more of two best friends, I got to see a side of him very few did - a subtly mischievous, rebellious side. A guy who loved fast cars, steep ski slopes (he dislocated his shoulder frequently enough that he could reset it himself with a heavy bucket of water and a flat countertop), and a good cigar.
He was an extremely knowledgeable, disciplined, and successful investor.
99% of the time...
One of our rules was "never invest in anything you don't completely understand" . But one of the best ways to develop that understanding is with just enough skin in the game to fuel your learning.
Thus, the remaining 1% was a grab bag of experimentation, a portion of which likely would be considered terrible decisions (i.e., the aforementioned "TDEs")
Another of our rules was "nobody beats the house over the long run", either in investing or straight up gambling, which we both enjoyed.
However, over the past 5 years, we've been building a theory that there is a predictable (i.e., exploitable) failure in the betting markets unique to the first week of the NCAA basketball tournament. I've been working on a ML model to identify the cluster of "mispriced" games, and a regression model to optimize the bets on them.
Most casinos probably has been funded through the foolish hubris of those with similar "systems".
But the value of ML learning that I've done far exceeds the value of the small TDE I'll be bankrolling my test in Vegas with in March. At least that's the argument I made to the household CEO in gaining approval for said test...
"Never buy version 1.0 of ANY product". 100% adherence to that rule, until I violated it in Jan, with a small TDE to purchase the Rabbit r1 handheld AI device. The pitch was just so compelling, and I thought "well, even if it's disappointing, it will still make for some interesting content".
I absolutely hate it to the point that I don't want to write about it.
But here's the thing about TDEs - in addition to the learning benefits and the sheer fun of sometimes not being a responsible adult, occasionally they pay off in entirely unexpected ways.
Unannounced, the Rabbit r1 came with a free year of Perplexity Pro, an AI-based search engine that is PHENOMENAL (a $240 value - more than the cost of the r1, and a cost I'll gladly pay. I'll post later this week explaining why...)
So, be the responsible adult your family, friends, and coworkers are counting on. But every once in a while, let your TDE freak flag fly.
I know Pops would agree...😉
Passionate Leadership | Champion of Digital Innovation & Organizational Change | Inspiring a Culture of Continuous Lifelong Learning & Future Skills Development
8moVery cool LLuvia (pronounced Juvia) Meneses (she/her)! My turn next week to meet Andrew Drinkwater, MBA in person and looking forward to it!