"Decision Based Evidence Making". The Australian Senate inquiry into the ‘Management and assurance of integrity by consulting services’ has received some intriguing evidence into consulting practices and how advice is provided to government. Last week, one witness described the practice of consultants engaging in “decision based evidence making”. This phenomenon is described by Peter Tingling and Michael Brydon in their 2010 article as, 'marshalling facts and analysis to support a decision that had already been made'. Artificial credibility is also a key issue as observed by former Competition Regulator head, Professor Allan Fels, who stated in the same senate enquiry, that there is a 'halo' effect whereby big accounting firms add legitimacy to decisions and audits even if that legitimacy may not be warranted. With the Public Sector being hollowed out and an apparent reluctance to provide ‘frank and fearless’ advice, there is little wonder that we are being plagued by appallingly poor business cases and bad decision making. The Robodebt debacle is a case in point. In my last blog on how to manipulate business cases https://lnkd.in/gGzkCtp2 , I discussed the need for business cases to be transparent and subject to scrutiny. Business cases should also be robust, impartial, and evidence based. One of the key takeaways on this topic comes from Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner's book “How Big Things Get Done” https://lnkd.in/gbtwCpQ6. For projects, ‘Reference Class Forecasting’ should be used to validate cost estimates, and ensure risks are understood and can be appropriately managed. If there is no reference class or evidence available, then why should massive amounts of resources be committed in the hope things go the plan. As Flyvbjerg and Gardner state, only 1 in 200 projects achieve the stated benefits on time and on budget. Hope is not a strategy.
"The emulation of corporate models and processes is not the best or only way to achieve public service goals, as history shows. Cultures shape systems; thereafter, systems shape cultures. If there is an obvious place to start, it’s re-establishing tenure for departmental secretaries, and converting SES officials on contracts to continuing employment." A must-read from Chris Wallace on how the #robodebt rot plaguing our APS was allowed to flourish over decades. https://lnkd.in/gCxYv2wC
Electrical Engineer
1yRoboDebt is an interesting case study. My 6 year old could have made a better decision. It was painfully clear it was a disaster from the beginning. Politicians need to start facing consequences for their actions beyond getting kicked out of office. They should not be able to hide behind "but the consultant/public servant told me to do it".