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Head of global and emerging risks, expertise in international security, emerging technologies & artificial intelligence
Week-end reading: #Neutrality After the Russian Invasion of #Ukraine: The Example of #Switzerland and Some Lessons for Ukraine Our latest article with Thomas Greminger in PRISM journal published by National Defense University Press. This article should answer your questions about the practice of #Swiss neutrality since the end of the Cold War and during the #war in Ukraine. Geneva Centre for Security Policy #ukrainewar #russiaukrainewar #internationalsecurity #neutralstate #securitypolicy #foreignpolicy https://lnkd.in/eb6eGXQ8
Neutrality After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: The Example of Switzerland and Some Less
ndupress.ndu.edu
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A majority of the 125 nations that belong to the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) have called for limits on lethal autonomous weapons. However, major powers like the United States, Russia, and China have opposed a ban on the weapons and restrictions on their development. Just published: The Fall 2023 issue of the “Ethics & International Affairs” journal includes a roundtable analyzing the state of global #governance and #ethics of lethal autonomous weapons. https://lnkd.in/eXPgf6ac
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Great framework to consider integrated deterrence and strategic competition:
A Sum Greater Than Its Parts: Integrated Deterrence and Strategic Competition | MITRE
mitre.org
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The Shanghai Cooperation Organization defines as a core institutional objective the promotion of “multipolarity,” a code word for the supplanting of the United States as the world’s sole (or even dominant) superpower. Read about it at https://lnkd.in/ghjvb6Bc.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization
armyupress.army.mil
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I am delighted to share my latest security policy article on Terra Nova Consultancy examining Ireland's stance and definition of neutrality and its implications for future security strategies both on the European continent and globally. In this comprehensive analysis, I delve into the intricate themes surrounding Ireland's neutrality, exploring its historical evolution, relationship with the EU, and a potential future full alignment with NATO. Tackling the complexities head-on, I also investigate the notion of forging a unique security agreement to address Ireland's unique position on the global stage. To provide clarity amidst the complexities, I've outlined three distinct scenarios, each offering a glimpse into possible future trajectories. Through meticulous examination, the article underscores Ireland's steadfast commitment to neutrality, driven by aspirations for independence and sovereignty, while also recognizing the need for adaptability in a constantly shifting geopolitical landscape. One of the central debates explored is the compatibility of Ireland's neutrality with its EU membership, presenting a formidable challenge for policymakers navigating the country's role within the broader European context. Drawing upon insights from diverse perspectives, the article advocates for a nuanced approach, urging Irish policymakers to heed public sentiment, internal dynamics, and potential ramifications – both economic and diplomatic – in charting Ireland's course forward. By offering actionable insights, the aim is to equip Irish decision-makers with the tools needed to steer Ireland towards a secure and prosperous future. Check out the full analysis for a deeper dive into Ireland's security landscape and the considerations shaping its trajectory. The article's contents will provide a much-needed insight into the highly specific nature of Ireland's positioning on the world geopolitical stage. #Ireland #Neutrality #SecurityStrategies #EU #NATO #PolicyAnalysis #GlobalRelations #UN #Defence #Policy
The Irish Question: Neutral, NATO Member, or Special Relationship
terranovaconsultancy.com
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Senior leader comfortable with complexity & uncertainty. Expertise in: Operations | Gov’t Policy | Strategy | Leadership | Charities | Stakeholder and Risk Management
Insightful commentary on deterrence and what the US must do to revitalise and deliver the necessary capability investment to maintain competitive advantage, but I would add: changing the policy and procurement restrictions to enable true partnerships with the critical non-traditional primes and smaller innovative companies (as well, not instead of, the traditional primes). Without which procurement will be slower, more expensive and less effective; and missing opportunities to deliver the game changing capabilities needed to keep pace - let alone deter - our adversaries!
"Paul Nitze, the Pentagon official whose strategic wisdom helped us win the Cold War, once said, 'Our fundamental purpose is more likely to be defeated from lack of the will to maintain it, than from any mistakes we may make.' In other words, the future is ours to lose. But the future is still ours. [The Strategic Posture Commission] report recommends several policies that can help us end the damaging defense cuts of the past three decades and begin making investments we need. The Commission’s first is that we rebuild and expand the defense industrial base, including the National Nuclear Security Administration’s nuclear weapons production infrastructure. In particular, Congress should partner with the administration and the Navy to establish a third public shipyard to conduct submarine maintenance. Again, this is the recommendation of a completely bipartisan commission of experts. The second proposal builds on the first. We need educational institutions and a talent pipeline to bring skilled tradesmen to this industrial base. These high-paying, stable, and long-term jobs do not require master’s or bachelor’s degrees. They can advance both national security and expand economic opportunity. Finally, the report recommends a series of products we should prioritize. We need more conventional forces, and we should increase procurement of strategic nuclear capabilities like the B-21 and Columbia-class submarine. We need improved missile defenses and rapidly-deployable theater nuclear forces like the sea-launched cruise missile. Delivering these products would put our adversaries on notice and reassure our allies at the same time."
Wicker Delivers Floor Speech on Slipping American Deterrence Efforts
https://www.youtube.com/
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Check out this new article in Foreign Affairs 'The End of Nordic Neutrality' by Professor Jussi Hanhimaki https://lnkd.in/ezQ3ErKz
The End of Nordic Neutrality
foreignaffairs.com
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🔍 “Sweden Breaks Neutrality Shackles” 🔍 🌐 Historic Pivot: After 70 years of neutrality, Sweden takes a bold step. 🛡️ NATO Alliance: The once-neutral nation now stands shoulder-to-shoulder with global defenders. 🌍 Geopolitical Ripples: How will this seismic shift impact Europe’s security dynamics? 📜 Legacy Unraveled: Explore the unraveling of Sweden’s post-WWII neutrality doctrine. 🚀 UPSC Insights: Dive into the implications for international relations and strategic balance. #Sweden #NATO #Geopolitics #UPSCInsights #upscaspirants #upsc2024 #upscpreparation #iasexam
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Chairman at Smart Trade Networks | Author of China, Trust & Digital Supply Chains | Research Leader in Value Flows, Distributed Networks & Supply Chain Integrity | International Political Economy | Impact Analyst Expert
The political economy of war and de-industrialisation … This formed the basis of my discussion with Philip Pilkington, a macroeconomist and researcher based in Budapest. Our conversation explored his recent reports on: 1. The challenges of re-industrialisation - tariffs aren’t viable solutions to what are long term, deeply entrenched systemic problems. 2. The resources of the NATO countries compared to those of the BRICS+ group; wars are resource intensive and NATO isn’t well endowed. Addressing the first set of ambitions requires abandoning the pursuit of conflict (even in the name of deterrence). Rather, it requires a new modus vivendi of sorts, which integrates prosperity with peace. That’s what #MultipolarPeace is about. #peace #prosperity #NoGlobalNATO https://lnkd.in/gGjJ_qEM
WARFARE & DEINDUSTRIALISATION - IN CONVERSATION WITH PHILIP PILKINGTON
https://www.youtube.com/
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Juris Master (J.M.) in International Law • U.S./Middle East Diplomacy • IHL • Policy & Data Analysis
Sharing this exceptional piece about the dichotomy of warfare. The literature gives an in-depth look with critical thoughts and questions we should be asking about “lawfare.” 👏 Notably, #china and #taiwan as we’re currently seeing if you’re keeping the pulse on #internationalrelations: Michael Listner writes: “China has been utilizing lawfare in combination with other aspects of the Three Warfares in the “ten-dash line” region of the South China Sea and other parts of the maritime domain. The People’s Republic of China, through the People’s Liberation Army applies the Three Warfares doctrine, including lawfare, to justify its occupation and to rewrite international law to support its claims of sovereignty in the region to the detriment of existing international law, including the right to free access in the maritime domain.” “China continues to utilize the Three Warfares, including lawfare, to annex Taiwan. It utilizes the facets of the Three Warfares, including lawfare, to create messaging and customary international law about the legal status of Taiwan to facilitate its annexation to China. It does so through physical acts, including blockading Taiwan and challenging Taiwan’s airspace. China may also be engaged in an ongoing lawfare action related to the legal status of satellites launched by and for Taiwan.” … A must read!
Attorney, Advisor, Board Member, General Counsel. SME & practitioner: outer space law, policy and security. Authority in lawfare/hybrid warfare strategy. Thinks about the unthinkable. Author and Publisher of The Précis.
My piece published by the Irregular Warfare Initiative discussing hybrid warfare and introducing a concept for the U.S. to meet that threat. As background, I have been considering lawfare and hybrid warfare since 2018. This piece is based on an essay I submitted to IWI's essay contest in 2021-2022. It was a finalist in that competition. Some thoughts: 1) We are clearly in a hybrid warfare environment and we're not engaging like we could or should. 2) The concept I introduce in this article would give the U.S. an effective weapon to engage in hybrid warfare and attain superiority in the environment without the billions of dollars required for weapons systems designed for kinetic warfare. 3) Whether we like it or not, we are in a hybrid war with multiple actors. 4) The U.S. has the resources as I mention below to not only stop these actors cold but also create a deterrent for hybrid warfare actions and make an adversary think twice about starting a hot war. 5) We can beat these actors at their own game if there is the will to break out of our "war or peace" mentality, admit there is a problem and employ concepts like the one I discuss in this piece. #lawfare #hybridwarfare #irregularwarfare #greatpowercompetition #grayzoneoperations #realitycheck
Law as Force in Hybrid Warfare - Irregular Warfare Initiative
https://irregularwarfare.org
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