Hannah Clarke’s Post

State of Australian Cattle herd A couple of weeks ago I released our 2024 Australian cattle market outlook. In it I proposed - based on our modelling - that the Australian breeder inventory would remain static in 2024. Slaughter numbers, I projected - would increase by 15% and production, with slightly lighter carcase weights, would increase 10%. Clients can view the report here https://lnkd.in/grpXswHA Last week the ABS released their Q1 slaughter and production numbers. Cattle slaughter numbers were up 17% - reassuring given my projection. But the interesting thing was the proportion of females in the total slaughter numbers - 47%. Anecdotally it is believed that a percentage that high - and it was 49% and 53% in the previous two quarters - suggest herd liquidation, that is we are slaughtering more females and retaining less in the herd. Interestingly in 2018-2020 and 2014-2015 the female percentage of total slaughter was above 50%. Given those that I have spoken to I don't feel we are in a liquidation phase, but rather a state of balance with little rebuild or liquidation pressures in the system. But I would be interested in your thoughts. Let me know.

Perception is reality. The market perceives that dairy-breed beef has lower value than beef-breed beef. Therefore, dairy cattle aimed at the slaughter market logically trade at lower prices than beef-breed fed cattle. Beef-on-dairy crossbreds have some characteristics of beef breeds and some characteristics of dairy breeds. Logically, these crossbreds typically trade at prices between beef-breed cattle and dairy-breed cattle. Those price relationships generally hold from calves through slaughter. https://buff.ly/4dpfVk5

Producer sentiment to steer cattle market in 2024: Rabobank. Australia’s cattle market is more exposed to changes in producer sentiment, as it sits in a “state of balance” – with improved beef production waiting on an increase in demand. That is according to Rabobank’s Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2024. READ ARTICLE: https://lnkd.in/gHWapyRk

The US cattle herd shrank to the lowest level in more than 70 years, threatening to keep beef prices at stubbornly high levels while eroding profits for meat processors. American ranchers have for the past four years been culling more cows than they were retaining for breeding because of persistent droughts, surging feed costs and elevated interest rates. Shrinking herds means fewer cows are available to be processed into beef in the world's largest producing country at a time when meat demand is growing globally. If you are associated with ranching or the beef industry, what factors are impacting your business? What's your outlook for 2024? Read more from Gerson Freitas Jr. ➡️ https://lnkd.in/e85DmDbm

Beef and Veal Outlook - DAFF Key Points: - Value of beef, veal and live cattle production to rise by 25% to $15.7 billion in 2024–25. - Value of beef and live cattle exports to increase by 6% to $13.0 billion in 2024–25. - Beef export prices to rise in 2024–25. - Saleyard prices expected to rise in 2024–25, reflecting increased restocker demand. - Value of beef production over the medium term to fluctuate with changes in seasonal conditions. *Credit - Alistair Reid.

Cattle Producers Advised to Manage Risk Ag Economist Recommends Ranchers Take Advantage of Low Feed Costs From an article in Progressive farmer by Jennifer Carrico Article excerpts: “The question on the minds of many beef producers is, "How soon will the herd rebuild?" In the opinion of economists like Dan Basse, that won't happen yet. Basse, an economist for AgResource Company, recently discussed his thoughts during the Feeding Quality Forum in Dodge City, Kansas. He said it's important to look at what is happening worldwide in agriculture to better understand what is happening locally. While those in the U.S. beef industry have been doing relatively well, there are some big struggles elsewhere. “…"For those of you in the cow-calf business, the times have never been better. The average estimate from universities and our calculations in terms of margins are now close to $600 per head," he said.” Link to article; https://lnkd.in/g6yRTupw

According to the report, weekly cattle slaughter numbers remain at around 140,000 head per week, up 20 per cent on the five-year average. #cattle #beef #australia #export #import #demand #supply #trade #internationaltrade #foreigntrade #economy #market #animalfeed #shipping #news #dailyinsights

How hard will be it be for the U.S. dairy herd to grow in the future? In its year-end Cattle report, USDA reported 2024 heifer inventory down 0.4% year-over-year, on top of a 0.5% reduction to 2023 data. That took heifer inventory to the lowest point since 1998. And it’s unlikely much growth is ahead. The number of heifers to calve fell 1.0% on the year to a level last seen in 2004. Over the past year or so, high beef prices and so-so dairy margins encouraged producers to cull additional cattle. Find out more in IDFA's blog series, "The Dairy Bar: Powered by Ever.ag": https://lnkd.in/e77WeZC2

The relationship between the price of #cattle in saleyards and the retail #beef price is a hot topic – particularly the price of beef in Australia’s supermarkets.   What are the factors impacting the relationship between cattle prices and retail beef prices? It turns out to be more complicated than you might think.   ANZ’s Michael Whitehead, Executive Director for Agribusiness Industry Insights, explains this debate is not a new one, but an important one for Australia’s #farmers and #consumers.   “The comparison between the two price levels is an inexact science,” Whitehead says.   “It is important to remain mindful that saleyard cattle prices aren’t just a reflection of the price being paid for cattle to be directly processed for meat but, they are also impacted by farmers buying to restock their own operations as well as feedlots buying to fatten cattle.”   To sink your teeth into this issue, read more at bluenotes. https://lnkd.in/guVz4Y36

Urner Barry's Foodmarket reports today on the rise of Aussie Beef imports: Kicking off the news, Australia's beef exports have grown due to a slump in US beef production, allowing the country to export record amounts of meat. Drought in the US has reduced US cattle numbers to their smallest since the 1950s and has prompted more imports and less export of beef. Analysts expect the decline to continue as farmers hold back cattle to breed and rebuild herds. If you're a North American operator in need of #beef please reach out to us! More on that story here.  #aussiebeef