Gabriele Grecchi’s Post

View profile for Gabriele Grecchi, graphic

Biotech company creator. Currently CEO & co-founder of KLISBio, a VC-backed startup (€12m+ raised from VCs). Author of Future Health and Capitali di Ventura. Active board member

Thanks, Suman for sharing this: 1) I'd recommend reading what Clint Korver superbly writes here about #decisionanalysis applied to #venture #investing: https://lnkd.in/dx9QwSTc 2) I believe many useful insights might be drawn by #FooledbyRandomness https://lnkd.in/dBQK_bff 1) applying a decision analysis approach to VC investing is the ONLY reasonable and justifiable way of approaching portfolio construction and venture investments, in my view. Whenever I talk with my VC friends, I find such a scarce understanding of how risk and return intertangle each other, that it's not hard to understand why the median performance of VC is so abysmal. This is a lesson for LPs allocating capital to existing or emerging VC, IMHO (it would be interesting to know your POV Marco Cesare Solinas) 2) ego dynamics set in very rapidly in this sector, where a lot of VCs are better at raising money than at deploying it. What the "flaneur" Nassim Nicholas Taleb suggests should be taught in preschool and reinforced throughout the entire curriculum up to graduate school...

View profile for Fred Destin, graphic

Founder at Stride.VC. Endlessly curious.

For younger investors: here's some hard shit to consider re: venture investing and track records. Untangling luck from skill is complex and takes time. Some configurations you might find yourself in: Case A/ You back the right company, make all the right decisions, fail horribly. Your partnership thinks you suck, you get lambasted in the press, maybe you even get fired. You go back and coldly analyse your decision making; if it was solid - you should probably write that check again! Case B/ You back a rando company with scant process, hit it out of the ballpark, make the Midas List, everyone calls you a Legend. You got lucky but now your ego is all tangled up in your own genius. Imposter syndrome kicks in, because somewhere in your system you know you haven't cracked any sort of code. Case C/ let's go next level confusing: you're a young partner and back 5 companies in Fund V. Yay. But three years on, none of them look like winners yet, they're just trudging along. Everyone thinks you're meh as your partnership raises Fund VI. Turns out you put absolutely the right "type of risk" in the portfolio and your sixth investment is a triple fund returner. Who knew? Go figure. In venture - outcomes and the quality of decisions are not nearly as correlated as one might think. Conversely, any unskilled player with a checkbook can hit the jackpot once in a while. It's a shitshow. So you need to - learn to detach your self-worth from the quality of the outcomes and focus on the quality of your decision-making instead. - define, hone and refine these decision-making processes patiently over time - have rigorous and self-aware feedback sessions to assess the above Skill is not developed by time and experience alone, but through the implementation of a rigorous method of building predictions, seeking hidden knowledge to build these predictions, and systems-based decision making that addresses your own biases. This is why this game is hard. But hang in there, you might just be on the right track :-)

Marco Cesare Solinas

Entrepreneur, Co-Founder of Puzzle

8mo

Decision analysis for single investments is indeed very intriguing. Although something to think through is that when you have a decision analysis process with many variables and most of those are just assumptions (so with quite some margin of error for each), the validity of the overall analysis might not be perfect - so sometimes better to simplify and focus on a few key variables. Agree that portfolio construction should be more scientific. I think some of the problems in relation to Fred's post are that a) feedback loops in venture are very, very long b) independently of the timespan, many managers (young and less young) do not know how to benchmark themselves due to lack of data & market opacity and c) when you are young and start in a venture firm, typically you are not exposed to topics such as portfolio construction, so you follow a given strategy (we need x investments with y ownership) and just assume it is right, and grow with that mindset, which might not be correct. No easy solution, but something to improve would be sharing more information and data across the ecosystem.

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