Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Post

Soft landing in the US the eagle has landed. The event itself has for the most part, while somewhat remarkable, has gone relatively unrecognized by the markets and main street media. The Fed’s fishing expedition has revealed a new neutral lending rate of close to 5%. That was likely the approximation for the Fed’s target from the outset. The Fed cannot truly broadcast its objectives and sentiments that would be like giving the opposing team your game plan just before the openning whistle. The US economy is now running exceptionally strong, the equity markets robust, consumer spending flourishing, the employment data highly favourable. AI is coming to aid productivity and unleash new realities. While also bringing some much needed equality through the potential in wage increases for lower income groups. The collateral damage as a result of the recent rate hike cycle has primarily been limited to lower socioeconomic groups, those that do not own homes or have invested assets, and the residential housing sector. The CRE dilema is a byproduct of the pandemic. Democracies move the heard forward they do not stop to protect the one. The future in the US has never been brighter looking forward. The business climate like the weather is continually changing and evolving. It’s up to the marketplace to adapt and adjust accordingly. That rearview mirror is there for a quick glance to the past it doesn’t show the way forward. Stay brave, remain relentless, stay focused, feed the mind body and soul, family first, take no prisoners, don’t ever forget to be kind and give back, continue to climb the wall, don’t be careless or reckless. Stack one incredible day upon the other and the future will take care of itself.

It’s interesting that the standard error band for this estimate is 1%. That tells us that there is a lot if uncertainty in the day to day economic outlook, in my view. In turn, we should be humble about our ability to forecast the future path of the economy. If we cannot be sure where the economy is, how can we be sure about where it is going to be?

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Know the facts.

All of the stats I have researched favor a nice year ahead. Here’s a quick video with some good data: https://lnkd.in/gvvt2biQ Attached is another piece of data that will instill confidence. The key is to do the same thing regardless of the year ahead. So if the market does not perform, that does not mean to worry or get nervous. There’s absolutely potential for that too. Ultimately be prepared but this data does show a nice 2024 coming our way.

Get ready for a busy week ahead! Here's a quick snapshot of key economic data releases and earnings reports to watch. #WeeklyEconomicCalendar #FlahartyAssetManagement #marketwatch #LPLFinancial

#bloombergintelligence Our 19th edition of credit medians are out on the Bloomberg. Click here for the data and insights https://lnkd.in/e3Fgybxe and reach out to me if you'd like to discuss.

Overall, recorded losses range from less than a hundred bucks, to well over a billion USD. That span is probably a wee bit too wide to satisfy executives and board members asking that dreaded question, “How much is this going to cost us?” But take heart— statistics have our backs here. Download the #report to see what the data tells us: https://lnkd.in/eBjwqgjF

Get ready for a busy week ahead! Here's a quick snapshot of key economic data releases and earnings reports to watch. #WeeklyEconomicCalendar #FlahartyAssetManagement #marketwatch #LPLFinancial

Overall, recorded losses range from less than a hundred bucks, to well over a billion USD. That span is probably a wee bit too wide to satisfy executives and board members asking that dreaded question, “How much is this going to cost us?” But take heart— statistics have our backs here. Download the #report to see what the data tells us: https://lnkd.in/eBjwqgjF