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The Labour Party won the 2024 General Election in a 'Landslide win.' 📢 Leader Sir Keir Starmer will officially become prime minister later in the day. We understand this will also come with changes to the financial industry, but we are here to answer your questions and will continue to cover these changes in the coming days. #BalanceWealthPlanning #NotttinghamFinancialPlanner #LincolnFinancialPlanner #GeneralElection

Welcome to another intriguing chapter of our Weekly Rand Review... ...and what a rollercoaster week it was! The Rand battled uphill initially but managed a strong turnaround. Did you see it coming? We did! The week was marked by poor economic performance data domestically and abroad. On the political front, Labour had a landslide win in the UK elections. The Rand ended the previous week positively at around R18.20/USD. Our forecast showed a likely initial test lower, but a rise into the 18.65-18.95 area if we stayed above the 17.86 support level. https://buff.ly/3Y1HEDD #RandReview #Forex #SouthAfricanEconomy #MarketInsights #UKElections #USEconomy #USDZAR

Conservative Party suffers historic defeat, results of UK Parliament elections On Friday morning, Keir Starmer should be received by King Charles III who will instruct him to form a new government LONDON, July 5/ The opposition Labour Party has emerged victorious at the elections to the British parliament. According to preliminary results, it secured 326 out of 650 seats at the House of Commons, garnering the necessary majority to form the government. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, went down in flames at the election. Here are the main facts of election results. Election fallout - The Labourists, led by Keir Starmer, have secured 326 out of 650 seats in the House of Commons, having obtained the majority necessary to form a new government. - The Conservative Party, ruling since 2010, currently has a mere 73 seats. - UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has recognized the Conservatives’ defeat and congratulated Starmer. - The Labour leader has vowed to carry out sweeping reforms in the country. - On Friday morning, Starmer should be received by King Charles III who will instruct him to form a new government. Following this, he will head to the Downing Street residence to address the nation in the capacity of prime minister. (Part One, Continued in Part Two in the next post) #business #finance #financialservices

In the end, the polls were broadly right: Labour has won a landslide victory, and Sir Keir Starmer will be the prime minister after 14 years of Conservative-led government. Yet dig a little deeper, and the data paints a complex picture. Labour’s national vote share is only around 2% higher than it was in 2019, despite gaining more than 200 seats. The Conservative vote has splintered in multiple directions, to both Reform and the Liberal Democrats, but there is evidence of tactical voting at play. And, as Liz Truss found out, it only took a quarter of the vote in some constituencies to win 🔗 Read the full story here: https://lnkd.in/d3EbXCUR

📊🇬🇧 The British Conservative Party is at risk of winning fewer than 60 seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections, a historic low. According to a Savanta poll for The Telegraph, Rishi Sunak's party could win only 53 seats in the House of Commons. Labour, according to the poll, can expect to win 516 seats, which would be a historic record. The survey also suggests that the opposition Liberal Democrats will win 50 seats, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) may suffer an electoral collapse as a result of the election, winning only 8 seats compared to the current 48 (based on the 2019 results). • At the same time, YouGov gave the Conservatives 108 seats and the Liberal Democrats 67. As you can see, different sociological centres give very different estimates. • More in Common generally predicts 155 for the Conservatives and 49 seats for the Lib Dems, respectively. While it is too early to say for sure that the Conservatives will win fewer than 100 seats in the July 4 election, the main question is not whether they will lose, but how painful this defeat will be for Rishi Sunak and his party in the strategic perspective. 🇪🇺🇺🇦🇬🇧 • Glib Ostapenko •

While a month on from the 4 July 2024 UK General Elections, it is still too early to see an impact in the UK’s sovereign credit rating, there are some things to keep an eye on that have the potential to influence the rating. With time and good policies, it is likely that the UK sovereign credit rating could improve. After the King’s Speech there are still a lot of policy announcements to come on the economic front, and the 30 October budget is expected to provide additional detail. While economic matters loom large, governance issues form a large part of credit rating assessments so the new government’s approach to governance will also come under scrutiny. Governance pertains to the mechanisms through which a sovereign exercises power and authority in determining the direction in which the country is going. Given that governance matters to sovereign credit ratings, especially in the context of elections where voice and participation are paramount, let us look at some of the governance takeaways from the election. 🎢 The Labour Party landslide was expected. 🥇 The results from the elections have sparked discussions about the continued relevance of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) electoral system. ✅ Votes were spread across a much wider number of parties implying a wide range of preferences. 😎 Regardless of ideological persuasion, the political transition was smooth and is credit positive. 📰 Access the full article here: https://lnkd.in/eTU8K8dM 📩 Stay tuned for more insights from TRAC. Don't miss out on our upcoming work! Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest updates: https://lnkd.in/eDsdREd6 #UKElections #Governance #Elections #CreditRatings #SovereignRatingsAdvisory #EconomicAdvisory

#psephologicalfacts - 10 predictions Here are 10 predictions for today's election. I do not suggest many of these are particularly original - but in heavily polled elections you need to be bold/foolish to go radically against the evidence too much. Day off tomorrow but I will post on Monday to see how I did… 1). Largest swing to Labour since the current two-party system was established in 1922. 2). Labour will win a landslide victory yet with (i) a lower share of the vote; and/or (ii) fewer votes in absolute terms, than Corbyn managed in losing the 2017 election. 3). The Conservatives will have their worst result in history – polling worse than their previous lowest % of the vote (29.8% in 1832), and their lowest number of seats (157 in 1906). 4). Labour will lose Bristol Central to the Greens. 5). The LibDems will have their best “bang for buck” result since WW2 (in terms of seat % compared with vote %). 6). The Conservatives will lose Tunbridge Wells to the LibDems. 7). Rishi Sunak will hold his seat. 8). The Conservatives will lose every seat they hold in Wales, but will retain a presence in Scotland. 9). Reform will win 2 seats (probably Farage in Clacton and Anderson in Ashfield). 10). Knightsbridge and Sloane Square will be represented by Labour MPs for the first time in their history (in Cities of London & Westminster, and Chelsea & Fulham constituencies respectively).  

It seems the UK’s Conservative Party are bound to lose the General Election, regardless of when in the year they call it. Damage limitation is now the name of the game. But, the question remains: who stands to benefit? Will Kingston-Cox argues that despite the Conservative Party's decline, it's misguided to assume all right-leaning voters will flock to Labour under Keir Starmer, as he lacks Tony Blair's broad appeal. Instead, figures like Dominic Cummings, with his new "Start-Up Party," and others like Matt Goodwin, seek to fill the ideological gap with new right-wing alternatives. These developments suggest a fragmented British Right, potentially diluting Conservative support further and inadvertently bolstering Labour, despite Labour not being a direct beneficiary of right-wing voter realignment. #conservatives #reformuk #nigelfarage #mattgoodwin #dominiccummings #unitedkingdom https://lnkd.in/ejREgZKG

#EuropeanParliament election results have sparked a revival of European political risk this morning. But do the results mean an end to the recent rally in European #Equities? I spoke with CNBC Frank Holland about the political and market implications, underscoring my view that #volatility in French assets is likely to continue through the two rounds of snap French legislative elections June 30 and July 7 announced by French President Macron. His gambit is risky but not quite as “kamikaze” as Rishi Sunak in the U.K. The main takeaways are that the European centre has held; the centre-left and Greens have lost most, and the far-right have made gains—but not where they’ve recently been in government. Bottom line: Far-right populists are frequently used as protest votes, but have a patchy record in office—particularly on economic competence.

ELECTION PREDICTION … 🥴 I normally throw caution to the wind at this stage of an election campaign and predict the result. In 2019 I was bang on with my prediction of a Tory majority of eighty. This election, however, is different. Sunak will not be PM on Friday. Other than that, I think it is impossible to accurately predict the number of Labour MPs who will be elected. How will the thirty per cent of undecided voters split? There are signs that they may be breaking for the Tories which isn’t that surprising as most of them are former Tory voters! But really? Will the Lib Dems become the official Opposition? Is making a fool of yourself an act of political genius? How many Reform UK MPs will be elected and will they be disciplined enough to make a real difference in the new House of Commons? Has the SNP bubble finally burst North of the Border and will Scottish independence disappear from the political agenda? These are all great questions. Answering them is rather problematic so I won’t try. 😩 To misquote the great Liberal PM Herbert Asquith : ‘Let’s wait and see …’