ESL Federal Credit Union’s Post

It's time to panic. The Feds are going to lower interest rates. Did that make any sense to you? For some, lower or higher interest rates will be a cause of concern, especially if you're a realtor or looking to buy a house. But for many others, we're completely apathetic to the Fed rate. But here's the thing: our emotional triggers are unique and often misunderstood by others, and even ourselves. As a dad of 9 kids, I'm constantly navigating emotional landmines, and I'm not talking about my 3-year-old breaking down because I cut his sandwich the wrong way. I'm talking about MY overreactions. There's nothing more frustrating than blowing up on your kid and knowing that you're out of control. You want to be a good dad, and this isn't it. Here are several things I've learned that help me defuse and prevent personal blowups: 1) Recognize - Learn to recognize the signs of fight/flight - racing heart, tension. If you stay in this mind space you'll act impulsively and often regret it later. 2) Release - A few deep breaths can dramatically reduce stress hormones. 3) Reorient - It helps to have a family or personal mantra to reorient how you are interpreting the situation. This moves us from reacting instinctively to responding intentionally. 4) Reconstruct - One of our family sayings is "Nearys are kind". That helps me to reorient, but now I need to reconstruct how I'm going to approach this situation. That means slowing down, asking questions, and checking my assumptions. (Like expecting my 3-year-old to act like an adult). 5) Rally - Change takes effort. I have a lot of practice with my habitual responses and worldview. Sometimes I need my spouse, peer, or coach to help me see things differently and support me as I try to adjust how I respond to stress. This process isn't about avoiding conflict; it's about understanding ourselves and improving how we interact with those we care most about. When we can master our responses, we cultivate a life of balance, understanding, and empathy. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you're frustrated with how you're coming home from work, fighting with your spouse, or going off on your kids, then I'm here to help. I'm offering a free coaching session to guide you on this journey of self-discovery and emotional intelligence. Book a free session. Link is in the bio. #EmotionalIntelligence #UnderstandingTriggers #FamilyHarmony #MindfulResponses #SelfAwareness #nearycoaching #worklifebalance #worklifeintegration #family

The bottom line on the just-released Fed minutes (with the working link below): Officials share the markets' view of rates being at/near peak levels for this cycle. They also agree that rates will come down in 2024. But, they are more cautious about the scale and speed of the cuts. https://lnkd.in/eY5eGYZF #economy #FederalReserve #markets

Based on the FOMC meeting minutes, the key points are: *Economic growth slowed from the strong third quarter pace, with moderating job gains and low unemployment rate. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. *Participants revised down their inflation projections for 2023 and subsequent years due to better-than-expected incoming data. However, risks to inflation remain, especially core services inflation. *The target range for the federal funds rate was maintained at 5.25-5.50% at this meeting. Participants generally viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle. *In their projections, most participants expected some policy easing starting in 2024 due to the improved inflation outlook. However, they stressed maintaining a data-dependent approach, as further hikes may be needed if upside inflation risks materialize. *Balance sheet runoff has proceeded smoothly. Usage of the ON RRP facility continued to decline as money funds reallocated to Treasuries and private repo. *Participants saw uncertainty around the outlook as still elevated, though risks to inflation were viewed as more balanced compared to prior meetings. Both upside and downside risks to the economic outlook remain. In summary, the FOMC maintained the current policy rate as likely near its peak, while leaving the door open to further hikes if warranted. The outlook saw lower inflation, slower growth, and appropriate policy easing starting in 2024. Key risks remain around the inflation and growth paths.

Many of the #businessowners I consult for have been pondering taking on debt given the current interest rate environment. It’s a fair question, many #acquisitions last year simply wouldn’t cashflow with loan rates more than 10%. The concern does have some mitigating factors like deduction of interest payments etc. Leveraging debt service in a smart manner opens liquidity. Having a line of credit, credit cards and other short term products allows flexibility to take advantage of time sensitive operations or smooth over supply chain issues. Longer term debt now can be worth doing if it allows you a multiple of earnings on the debt service. If rates do shift dramatically lower there can be opportunities to refinance down the road. Have a great morning all!

Trees don’t grow to the sky rates went up and they’ll come back down. No CB has ever escaped QE the Fed will not be the first to do so. Developed nations and moreover the U.S. are now primarily built on debt and consumer spending. We have a 15 year sample size coming out of 2008 that says the Fed is now always in always there. Rates are headed lower and will stay lower for longer—

In case you missed our 'Making Sense of Markets' webinar yesterday, you can catch it here: https://lnkd.in/eE-iitrr Hosted by Stewart Crockett, Head of Armstrong Watson Financial Planning, Richard Cole, CFA discussed the Bank of England's inflation forecast and the cut to Interest Rates, as well as recent market movements, with Justin Rourke highlighting key financial planning considerations for now and the future. #webinar #financialplanning #markets #investments Future Money

As the Great Financial Crisis unfolded in 2009, household liabilities, particularly mortgages, became the center of the sharpest recession in decades. Researchers at the New York Fed, the Board of Governors, and the Philadelphia Fed created the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), a data set drawn from credit bureau data to provide fresh insights into this part of the economy. In today's post, the authors review how CCP data have provided many valuable insights into household behavior and its implications for the macro economy and financial stability. https://nyfed.org/3xPuM8c

BoE 🏦 chief economist Huw Pill dents hopes for a rate cut ✂ due to 'persistent' inflation. The Bank of England’s chief economist Huw Pill has dashed hopes for an August rate cut, pointing to “an uncomfortable strength" in underlying inflation dynamics. Check out Linus Uhlig's latest article 👇 https://incm.pub/4eRBdch #investing #assetmanagement #wealthmanagement #finance

With higher rates on the horizon, Ian Eberle, financial advisor at Fort Pitt Capital Group, explains why now's the time to invest your savings in CD's. Check out this article from @lizgravier_ @CNBCSelect: https://lnkd.in/eJJD29EZ

"To have a soft landing in 2024, additional fiscal stimulus would be needed(...). And Congress definitely has new stimulus teed up. If they enact that fiscal support, will the eco backdrop resemble 1995 or 1967?" #accounting #stocks #stockmarket #financialadvice #wallstreet #banking #economy #finance #economics #investments https://lnkd.in/gjhqZCsT