About operational surprise and transparent battlefield
As of 2024-08-08, it's clear that Ukrainians have achieved not only tactical but operational surprise at Kursk. Apparently, they have concentrated no less than two full mechanized brigades, and the advance rhythm is far from the usual costly and glacier-like pace of this phase of the war.
The scope and final result of this offensive remain to be seen, but it has shown beyond any doubt the facts stated above.
This is truly remarkable. Allegedly, the vast numbers of all kinds of drones on both sides make it almost impossible to concentrate forces before movement without being detected in hours, if not minutes. From that, movement is supposed to be tracked in real-time, and the commander in charge of the defense can choose the optimal combination of effectors for first blunting and then stopping the attacking forces.
During the last months, it was less and less frequent that armored forces ventured close to the contact line because of the inevitability of being detected and then attacked until mobility kill or direct obliteration.
Besides the transparent battlefield, there is the distributed mass of effectors. Not only drones, of course, but nevertheless, a lot of cheap and effective FPVs are used against any valuable target in the needed numbers. It's becoming less and less possible to advance kilometers without being stopped or destroyed by a combination of effectors.
And nothing like that is happening. The inventors of distributed mass of drones are showing the world that in some cases, it's possible to group, concentrate, and advance. Possibly Russian commanders didn't dedicate too many unmanned ISR resources to this part of the frontline because of their focus on obtaining as many advances as possible in the contested areas.
General disruption is so overwhelming that it makes it really difficult to distill learned lessons by extrapolating for specific scenarios. This very offensive is actually a warning for the Ukrainians, because they also have a sizeable frontier capable of receiving a comparable offensive.
And for NATO forces: a chain is as strong as its weakest link, and because of that, if a transparent battlefield is demanded, there is a threat of false transparency if some area during some time is not sufficiently covered with ISR drones.
Mass distributed drones are here to stay... and grow. We all are going to need an unprecedented amount of sensors, vectors, and effectors if we want to retain our past advantage against any other force.
Research Analyst: Energy; Economics; International Relations Policies; Cultural Liaisons; Weapons Designs
9moAlways security first! Ensure they're as secure as possible firsr prior deployment, othwrwise they're likely vulnerable to being hacked successfully, for there is always a way in, as the saying goes.