Defense Domain’s Post

With NATO's 75th anniversary this year, enhancing Europe's contributions to transatlantic security is critical. This new FAL brief outlines how Europe is stepping up on defense and Ukraine and where obstacles remain. With the Ukraine war stretching into its third year and tensions mounting in both the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, America needs Europe to be able to handle as much of the task of self-defense as possible. In 2022, Europe spent an aggregate of $260 billion on defense, which marked a six percent increase over the previous year. This represents the largest increase for Europe in the post-Cold War period. While initially lagging behind the United States in aggregate contributions to Ukraine, Europe now accounts for more than double the U.S. amount overall. Challenges remain, however, with 20 European members of NATO still not meeting the 2 percent benchmark. Ultimately, the U.S. will be most credible in its messaging to allies if we improve our defenses at home, including by raising defense spending and taking on overdue reforms of the U.S. defense-industrial base, and providing all the help we can to Ukraine. https://lnkd.in/eYTQzAzP

🔑 Highlights from the #NATOPA Rose-Roth seminar in Warsaw: 1️⃣ NATO PA members reaffirmed their commitment to #Ukraine amid #Russianaggression. 2️⃣ Discussions focused on reinforcing #democraticresilience against #hybridwarfare and #disinformation. 3️⃣ Belarus’ role in Russia’s war was emphasized, with calls for more #Allied support for Belarusian #democracy. 4️⃣ Poland leads #NATOAllies, committing 4.7% of its GDP to #defence, collaboration is essential for addressing current threats. 5️⃣ Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession is reshaping the Baltic region’s security landscape, with new joint strategies emerging. 🌍 Read the full press release for more ➡️ https://lnkd.in/eDGxk9AK

On 14 March, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg released his Annual Report for 2023. I was happy to coordinate the drafting of the Annual Report for the second year in a row. The Report is available at the following link: https://lnkd.in/dtymvJEq In the face of a complex security environment in 2023, NATO grew bigger and stronger. The Alliance welcomed its 31st member, Finland, and continued the accession process for the 32nd, Sweden, which was completed earlier this month. At the Vilnius Summit, NATO agreed new robust defence plans, advancing the biggest overhaul of Allied deterrence and defence in generations. At Vilnius, NATO and Ukraine further strengthened their ties. Allies elevated political dialogue with Kyiv, establishing the NATO-Ukraine Council. NATO also expanded practical cooperation with Ukraine, from non-lethal support to innovation, resilience, good governance and WPS, among others. Defence spending rose by an unprecedented 11% in 2023, with more and more countries reaching the target of spending 2% of GDP on defence. See more details at: https://lnkd.in/dmqdWN2R The annual survey of Allied citizens, including Finland and Sweden, shows strong support for the transatlantic bond: over 80 percent of NATO citizens believe that North America and Europe must continue to work together for our shared security. A majority of citizens also believes that their country should continue to support Ukraine (63%). And 77% of Allied citizens argue their country should maintain or expand its investment in defence. More details at: https://lnkd.in/dbssJmxM Other highlights of 2023 include: the new Defence Production Action Plan; protecting critical undersea infrastructure; the first innovation challenges through DIANA; more than 800 exercises; KFOR’s support to stability in the Western Balkans; disaster relief assistance to Allies and partners; and closer cooperation with partners.

The European Defence and Security Summit organised by Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe (ASD) and BusinessEurope concluded yesterday, raising crucial reflections on the present and future of Europe's geopolitical landscape. As Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas wisely pointed out, wars are only won by those who really want to win. This underlines a crucial question that Europe should ask itself. When it comes to our support for Ukraine, are we working for its victory, or simply to prevent its defeat? The nuance of these questions has profound implications for the future of Ukraine and Europe as a whole. Europe must step up and take greater responsibility for its own security, all the more so given a potential change in the US administration and the looming threat of reduced aid to Kyiv. Ukraine doesn't need eloquent words from Brussels, Ukraine needs action. Time is not on our side. Russia will benefit from any hesitation or lack of coordinated support from Europe. If we really want Ukraine to prevail as an independent democratic nation, we must stand unequivocally by its side. This will require tangible steps to provide Ukraine with the capabilities it needs, while increasing our defence preparedness, modernising our Armed Forces, reducing our strategic dependencies on critical technologies and strengthening our Defence Technological and Industrial Base. Initiatives such as EDIS and EDIP are promising steps, but Europe will need much more budgetary ambition to put Ukraine in a position to win this war.  As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen rightly stated, "the cost of insecurity, the cost of a Russian victory, is far greater than any saving we could make now". It is time to put the security and stability of our continent first. #security #defence #Ukraine #EU #EUDefence #EDTIB

'Fostering a ‘Will to Fight’ Has to be NATO's Next Priority' - Dominik Presl "There are, however, some NATO member states where citizens exhibit significantly higher willingness to defend their countries: surveys show that over 80% of Finns and 66% of Estonians would be prepared to participate in defence efforts if their countries were attacked. These figures are not a coincidence – both countries have identified defence resolve as a key requirement for survival in a potential conflict, and they have been actively working to improve their societal preparedness for such a scenario. In the case of Finland, fostering a will to defend has been implemented in the Finnish ‘total defence strategy’ for decades and on multiple levels. In Estonia, the Ministry of Defence has identified the need to enhance citizens’ willingness to fight as a priority following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has a department dedicated to increasing ‘defence resolve’. Both of these countries, however, share similar findings. Their experience seems to show that an awareness and understanding of a credible threat to their security, a belief in the capacity of their country to defend itself from this threat, and an understanding of what their role would be in this effort are among the key factors increasing the willingness of citizens to defend their country. "

Anticipating NATO’s Next Moves at the Washington Summit Walter Landgraf July 3, 2024 The Washington summit will mark NATO’s 75th anniversary but the celebration will be modest, as the alliance faces several challenges involving Ukraine, Russia, and the European security landscape. With the absence of alliance consensus on inviting Ukraine to join NATO, the allies should collectively do what they can now to help Ukraine in the fight against Russia. NATO should seek to institutionalize the provision of military aid to Kyiv, which would signal a long-term commitment by the West to Ukraine’s security.

Thankful for the relentless support #Ukraine has already received and keeps receiving from the #UnitedKingdom 🙏🇺🇦🇬🇧 UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and our President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the Agreement on Security Cooperation in #Kyiv today 🙏🙏💙💛 Ukraine and the UK agreed to coordinate and strengthen their joint efforts to support Ukraine’s accession to #NATO. The main components of security commitments provided by the UK to Ukraine are: - comprehensive assistance to Ukraine for the protection and restoration of its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy and protection of our citizens; - prevention and active deterrence of, and counter-measures, against any military escalation and/or a new agression by the Russian Federation, and - support for Ukraine’s future integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions, including by supporting Ukraine’s reform plan and interoperability with #NATO. - both Ukraine and the UK shall ensure that Ukraine’s military capabilities are at such level that, in the event of external military aggression against the UK, Ukraine is able to provide effective military assistance. In addition to cooperation in military and defense areas, the UK is committed to support Ukraine’s #Recovery and #Reconstruction 🙏🙏❤️🩹 Moreover, the agreement stipulates that Russian sovereign assets in the UK will remain immobilized until Russia has paid for the damage it caused to Ukraine. The UK and Ukraine will continue to work together with others, including G7 states, to develop appropriate mechanisms to provide #reparations for damage, loss or injury caused by Russian agression, as envisaged by the Statute of the #RegisterOfDamage Caused by Agression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine (RD4U). The agreement is signed for 10 years and represents an important milestone in the global security and reparations areas. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the UK has been one of the largest suppliers of #militaryaid to Ukraine, has been training the Ukrainain Armed Forces and was the first European country to provide lethal aid. For all of the above we are extremely grateful 🙏🙏💙💛 Full text of the agreement is available at: https://lnkd.in/eRpFT3px Posting the below photo to say that I am wholeheartedly thankful to the UK for their unwavering support to Ukraine in these extremely challenging times 🙏🇬🇧🇺🇦❤️🩹 #securityguarantees #defence #reparations #ukraine #uk

Verrrry interesting results in this new poll from Defense Priorities. Some key takeaways: - Most respondents (80%) indicated the U.S. should either make aid to Ukraine conditional, reduce aid, or cut aid to Ukraine entirely. - Twice as many people (66%) think the U.S. should require Taiwan to invest more in capabilities to deter China as a prerequisite for any commitments from the U.S. to defend Taiwan. - A large majority (81%) of respondents opposed a U.S. commitment to send U.S. servicemembers into combat to fight and die to defend Saudi Arabia.

15 Jul 20:55: Repeat post from Hans Petter Midttun 🇳🇴🇺🇦: ‘The NATO 2% guidelines were introduced in 2006. At the time, member states invested an average of 2,68% of gross domestic product (GDP) in defence. Eighteen years later, the NATO average has increased by a measly 0,03%. The sad fact is that the NATO average in 2024 is only 0,13% higher than when the war started a decade ago. What is portrayed as a success – a nearly fourfold increase from 2021 in member states meeting the defence spending targets - is, unfortunately, nothing of the sort. If the member states had decided to immediately increase defence spending to 2% in 2014, it would probably have influenced Russia's further course of action. It would have served as a strong response to its gross violation of international law and a clear strategic message of strength and resolve. The 2% target is no longer relevant. The member states have a very small window to rectify their military shortcomings after three decades of downsizing and failing to maintain a strong DIB. Even more so, as increasingly more European countries express uncertainty over the US's future commitment to NATO. Increasingly more European officials believe NATO could be in open conflict with Russia in 2-6 years. The member states urgently need to increase their defence spending beyond the Cold War standard. Near the end of the Cold War, the West was facing what was perceived as an imminent threat with a robust and balanced military power. While the treat has returned, NATO no longer possess the military capabilities of the past. The Alliance is suffering from huge capability gaps, a lack of both manpower and sustainability, as well as an underdeveloped DIB due to decades of neglect. It will need to invest 4-5% of GDP and dramatically change its procurement and recruitment processes to achieve some strategic effect within the limited time available. More crucially, the Alliance also urgently needs to reassess its stand on Ukrainian NATO membership while at war. This is the only option offering a short-term improvement. The West must stop acting like Ukraine is only defending itself and not fulfilling the role NATO always was meant to perform: Defending European security. It must take Ukraine’s peace plan to heart and establish a war-winning strategy.” A short summary of a recently published article. Cartoon: Graeme MacKay’: Thank you, Hans Petter 🇳🇴🇺🇦 … and Nikki 🇳🇿🇺🇦:

The NATO 2% guidelines were introduced in 2006. At the time, member states invested an average of 2,68% of gross domestic product (GDP) in defence. Eighteen years later, the NATO average has increased by a measly 0,03%. The sad fact is that the NATO average in 2024 is only 0,13% higher than when the war started a decade ago. What is portrayed as a success – a nearly fourfold increase from 2021 in member states meeting the defence spending targets - is, unfortunately, nothing of the sort. If the member states had decided to immediately increase defence spending to 2% in 2014, it would probably have influenced Russia's further course of action. It would have served as a strong response to its gross violation of international law and a clear strategic message of strength and resolve. The 2% target is no longer relevant. The member states have a very small window to rectify their military shortcomings after three decades of downsizing and failing to maintain a strong DIB. Even more so, as increasingly more European countries express uncertainty over the US's future commitment to NATO. Increasingly more European officials believe NATO could be in open conflict with Russia in 2-6 years. The member states urgently need to increase their defence spending beyond the Cold War standard. Near the end of the Cold War, the West was facing what was perceived as an imminent threat with a robust and balanced military power. While the treat has returned, NATO no longer possess the military capabilities of the past. The Alliance is suffering from huge capability gaps, a lack of both manpower and sustainability, as well as an underdeveloped DIB due to decades of neglect. It will need to invest 4-5% of GDP and dramatically change its procurement and recruitment processes to achieve some strategic effect within the limited time available. More crucially, the Alliance also urgently needs to reassess its stand on Ukrainian NATO membership while at war. This is the only option offering a short-term improvement. The West must stop acting like Ukraine is only defending itself and not fulfilling the role NATO always was meant to perform: Defending European security. It must take Ukraine’s peace plan to heart and establish a war-winning strategy.” A short summary of a recently published article. Cartoon: Graeme MacKay