Dan Smith’s Post

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Student Housing Consultancy - Operations | Investment | Asset Management | ESG ------ Good Management - ESG, Sustainability & Net Zero - Strategy | Implementation | Data | Management

Following on from the podcast and my post last week about where PBSA sales velocity seems slower than normal... I would say that currently the slowdown in sales velocity is across the board in the UK. I highlighted a few places where properties seem to be behind the curve. Don't panic, this isn't to say that these markets are "saturated" or "oversupplied" with PBSA, it also doesn't necessarily mean that the universities are struggling either. Cities where some operators seem to be struggling (between 10-30% behind year on year) include: Coventry (no surprises there) Sheffield Leeds Nottingham I also hear that sales velocity has slowed in Glasgow, Bournemouth, Brighton and more. Is this just a later booking market? It looks that way, whilst Unite are only 4% behind year on year, this is due to a focus on core Russell Group locations. Some operators are up to 40% behind if they have large exposure to Tier 2 unis. From conversations with marketplaces it seems international students are delaying booking their accommodation on cost but there is also reticence due to the government's hostile stance on international students. Are rents too high in these locations? In some places YES. Some PBSA operators are pricing students out of certain markets, in particular domestic and Indian students who are more price-sensitive. Nothing to be too alarmed about at the moment, these are typical supply/demand economics. With more supply coming on board prices for PBSA will self-regulate through a focus on occupancy. Just look at where the pipeline is highest at the moment but remember these markets will stabilise, especially if they have at least two universities. We just have to start building a range of PBSA stock to ensure assets are defensive. Do we have less international students than usual? At the moment YES. From conversations with universities and PBSA operators we have less accommodation applications from international students. That's not to say that the market won't pick up later on. Are international students hedging their bets on other locations? YES. Again from conversations with marketplaces, many international students (in particular Chinese students) are applying to multiple countries and multiple universities within these countries. I'm not an advocate of the 'spray and pray' approach but it does give the student more flexibility and allows them to 'trade up' if they get better offers. Overall it does seem like a combination of high rents, hostile immigration stance and the ability to trade up later in the market are causing delayed decision-making from international students at the very least. The good news is that with immigration curbs in Canada, Australia and the potential of Trump resuming the US presidency, the outlook is uncertain for international students globally, not just in the UK. Student Housing Consultancy #pbsa #studentaccommodation #intled #studyabroad #highered #university #internationalstudents

Jean-Pierre Carromba

SaaS. Property Management Efficiency Software. Student and Residential sectors. A single source software system that seamlessly connects all your daily property management tasks and external integrations all in one.

5mo

Thanks Daniel Smith will certainly add your podcasts to my regular playlist!

Matt Walker

Chief Executive Officer, Student Housing

5mo

This change in velocity is also being seen broadly across the US. Preleasing was ahead of last year early on, but has softened and has stayed soft. Probably many different factors but perhaps some similar ones affecting pace.

Gabriel Nicklin

Partner at TONG Global

5mo

Thanks Daniel agreed on lots of this.

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