International Crisis Group’s Post

New FIIA Briefing Paper 📝 The current level of military assistance for Ukraine reveals that the EU is not in practice committed to Ukraine's victory, writes Research Fellow Tyyne Karjalainen. While EU support for Ukraine between 2022 and 2024 has been more successful than expected, insufficient assistance prevents Ukraine from meeting the foreign policy objectives of either Kyiv or the EU capitals and threatens to compromise Ukraine's EU membership perspective. The paper draws on interviews that the author conducted with officials in Kyiv and seven EU capitals. Read the full publication ➡ https://lnkd.in/daAzt4mv #fiiapublication #ukrainerussiawar #ukraine #europeanunion

United for Ukraine: Estonia Leads By Example Subscribe to LinkedIn Investing in #Ukraine: NEWS https://lnkd.in/g2UjPURx Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stresses unwavering support for Ukraine, underlining the need for unity, long-term military assistance, and political backing. Kallas boldly asserts that if every supporting nation allocates 0.25% of its GDP toward Ukraine's military aid, we stand a chance to help Ukraine win this war. Kallas also visited Warsaw's Katyn Memorial, drawing parallels between past atrocities and Russia's current actions in Ukraine. Her message? History should not repeat itself. Estonia's priorities are clear: bolster European defense, support Ukraine, and promote economic resilience. Let's stand united for Ukraine. #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦🌍💪

Northern European countries support Ukraine's Victory Plan. In a joint statement made at the fourth Ukraine-Northern Europe summit in Reykjavik, the prime ministers of Iceland, Denmark, Norway, and Sweden stated that they support the Victory Plan. "We will work to facilitate its implementation and strengthen Ukraine's position on the eve of the second Peace Summit on the way to a lasting peace based on international law, including the UN Charter," the document says. It also emphasizes that "the future of Ukraine is in NATO." The statement notes that the countries of Northern Europe have provided Ukraine with more than €20B in the form of military, financial, and humanitarian aid. They also emphasized their interest in further cooperation with Ukraine's defense industry. "€195M has already been allocated for purchases in the defense industry of Ukraine," the document states. According to Northern European leaders, one funding source for such initiatives can be surplus profits from frozen Russian assets. "Russia's assets should remain immobilized until it stops its aggressive war and compensates Ukraine for its losses," the leaders added. https://lnkd.in/dZe6y2GR

”Without an end in mind, leaders in Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels are making key decisions on an incremental and ultimately incoherent basis. Ukraine may achieve local successes, but not a comprehensive defeat of the enemy; for their part, Kyiv’s Western partners tend to think only about the next tranche of supplies. And without a strategic picture, it will be difficult to sustain morale and the will to fight in Ukraine and beyond. Coming up with a theory of victory will be much harder today than it would have been in 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Since then, Russia has militarized its economy, prepared for a long war, managed to recruit hordes of soldiers, and produced large stockpiles of equipment. But despite these successes, Moscow’s land-war doctrine is still unsophisticated. It centers on using small infantry groups with the support of a few armored vehicles to attack various spots on a frontline that stretches for over 1,000 miles. These tactics have allowed Moscow to make limited territorial gains—but only after losing enormous amounts of troops and weapons. ”

Is time on Russia's side in its war on UKR? Certainly, if Congress fails to fund more military assistance to Ukraine or if U.S. policy shifts dramatically after Inauguration Day 2025, Kyiv may be forced to sue for peace. However, if these two possibilities do NOT come to pass, and if Ukraine can hold out through next winter, there are some indications that the tide will turn in Kyiv’s favor. https://lnkd.in/ex3yEa23

A powerful, necessary argument from Andriy Zagorodnyuk and Eliot Cohen on a theory of #victory for #Ukraine: "The West must explicitly state that its goal is a decisive #Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat, and it must commit to supplying #Kyiv with direct military aid and to supporting the country’s burgeoning defense industry." The authors describe a narrative argument for how to achieve Ukrainian victory against Russian aggression. This approach meets all the criteria we seek in any such theory or operational plan: It is feasible, suitable, acceptable, and complete. More than that, it also highlights the risk in failing to pursue this approach. Russian victory is unacceptable, would cripple our alliances in Europe, and erode the credibility of American alliances in the Pacific. Ukraine must win, and this is how the US can help Ukraine win. https://lnkd.in/e9vUMapz

Russia says today, NATO are going to send the people in disguised as medical personnel. This move has raised concerns among Russian officials, who believe it could be a tactic to gather intelligence and undermine national security. The Kremlin has condemned the action, stating that any foreign presence under the guise of humanitarian aid will be viewed as an invasion of sovereignty. In response, military analysts suggest that NATO's intentions may be to provide support to local populations in conflict zones, but the situation remains tense. Russia has vowed to monitor the situation closely and has called for an emergency meeting of international leaders to address what it perceives as a threat. Public sentiment in Russia is mixed, with some citizens expressing fear of escalating tensions, while others rally behind their government’s stance against perceived foreign interference. The international community is watching closely as both sides prepare for potential repercussions, with diplomatic channels remaining open for dialogue. Meanwhile, humanitarian organizations are expressing concern about the potential impact on civilians caught in the middle of political machinations.

With Devorah Margolin, Ph.D., we wrote on how to organize/plan the new phase in the relations between Iraq and the West as Baghdad has begun to reevaluate longstanding arrangements (🔚🎬 of the anti-ISIS Coalition, UN’s assistance mission, humanitarian funding etc.). Giving an assessment of of the persisting ISIS threat, we argue that the #West should continue to pursue good relations with Iraq, but this time focused on a lighter footprint and regional cooperation. Our recommendations: ➡️Ensure that the U.S.-#Iraq HMC discussions outline an orderly transition toward a bilateral security partnership in close coordination with Coalition partners. ➡️Continue cooperating on post-IS stabilization efforts. ➡️Work more closely with regional partners (esp. Turkey, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia). ➡️Carefully monitor #Iraq’s political arena—but keep expectations realistic. #middleeast #mideast #cooperation #security #military #humanitarian #ISIS https://t.co/fglcTPBMSp

Uncertain times for Ukraine in its defensive war with Russia that is currently gaining ground. The EU is weaker and less united than ever on the issue and the upcoming Hungarian chair should not help. Ammunition and funds are missing to really support Ukraine that could face further disappointment from its Western Allies in the near future. Reallistic negotiations are still out of sight. In the meantime, people losses are increasing. #eu #europeanunion #nato #europe #ukraine #us

“Moldova’s path is independent of what is happening in Transnistria. Cyprus became a member of the European Union having a territorial problem. Moldova can do it,” EU High Representative Josep Borrell said last year. Moldova wants to join the EU by 2030, even as its Russia-aligned breakaway region of Transnistria is complicating the path forward. The narrow strip of land has hosted Russian battalions since it broke away in 1992, with an estimated 1,500 troops now serving in an ostensibly peacekeeping capacity. The situation has parallels with Cyprus. The island contains a breakaway territory, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is recognised by only one country – Turkey – but is self-governing in practice. The Turkish army maintains a large presence in the territory, which is separated from the rest of Cyprus by a United Nations-enforced buffer zone. Nonetheless, the Mediterranean island was able to join the EU in 2004. Could Moldova's situation be a Cyprus 2.0? https://bit.ly/3UQSrhK