Continuous Mortality Investigation’s Post

CMI says recent mortality similar to pre-pandemic lows The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England & Wales through its mortality monitors. Today’s updates cover week 13 of 2024 (to 29 March 2024) and the first quarter of 2024, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 10 April 2024. The key points are: • Mortality in the first quarter of 2024 was similar to the low mortality seen in the first quarters of 2019, 2020 and 2022. This is a significant improvement compared to 2023, with cumulative mortality rates currently 2.9% lower.  • This significant improvement was primarily driven by older age mortality where most deaths occur. Mortality rates in the working age population remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic lows.  • There were around 3,400 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the first quarter of 2024, compared to around 7,700 in the first quarter of 2023 and 12,800 in the first quarter of 2022. • Average mortality over the last twelve months is now also close to the record low, with only periods including 2019 having had lower annual average mortality. Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “After periods of high and volatile mortality during the peak of the pandemic, we have now seen several months of lower mortality rates more in line with typical seasonal variations. However, the picture is less rosy for the working age population who are still seeing mortality higher than pre-pandemic lows.” All mortality monitors available from: https://lnkd.in/gepZwWn

Figures for 2023 make interesting reading and enough different threads/angles to excite headline writers whatever their preferred angle. Which story would you choose - is it good news, bad news or back to where we were...? - mortality rates third lowest on record (and CMI stop monitoring excess deaths) - Covid continues to take lives as another 22,000 excess deaths in 2023 and significant rise in mortality rates for 20-44 year olds - mortality rates finally back to pre-pandemic levels, with almost no excess deaths in past six months.

The week 2024-01 CMI mortality monitor marks the last mortality monitor that will include our measure of excess mortality - calculating expected deaths using weekly mortality rates in 2019, standardised to capture the aging of the population over time - which set the industry benchmark for measuring excess mortality arising from the coronavirus pandemic. Being involved with Jon, Cobus and the rest of the Mortality Projections Committee in the development of the CMI's measure of excess mortality definitely came with highs and lows: -> Highs: working with a great group of actuaries to develop the excess deaths measure and produce mortality monitors every week since April 2020. -> Lows: being actually a bit scared when seeing that our calculations were suggesting excess deaths were around twice as high as COVID-19 deaths (i.e. COVID-19 deaths were being significantly undercounted) during the early weeks of the first wave of the pandemic. The weekly monitors will continue. However, excess deaths will no longer be included as isn't as easy to say that mortality in 2019 (now 4 years ago!) makes a reasonable expected measure for deaths.

CMI says death rates in 2023 lowest since 2019 The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitors. Today’s updates cover the period to 5 January 2024. In particular, the quarterly monitor sets out results for the whole of 2023. The key points of the updates are: -> In England & Wales, mortality for 2023 was 3% higher than 2019, the pre-pandemic benchmark, but lower than in 2020, 2021 and 2022.  -> There is a striking difference in how mortality rates in 2023 compare to 2019 at different ages – ranging from 10% higher for ages 20-44 to 1% higher for ages 75-84. -> In the UK, there have been around 173,800 more registered deaths from all causes, compared to pre-pandemic, than expected from the start of the pandemic to 5 January 2024. Of these, 74,700 were registered in 2020, 49,000 in 2021, 28,000 in 2022, and 22,000 in 2023. -> Excess deaths have been falling during 2023 and were close to zero (i.e. deaths were broadly as expected) in the second half. -> There were 18,900 deaths registered in the UK in 2023 with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate. While this is broadly similar to the number of excess deaths, the relationship between excess deaths and COVID deaths has varied significantly by age and over the course of the year. Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The fourth quarter of 2023 saw negative excess mortality for the first time since the first quarter of 2022. Overall, 2023 had the third lowest mortality rate on record – with only 2014 and 2019 being lower. However, we note that 2014 was nearly a decade ago, and if mortality had improved at the same rate as in the latter part of the 20th century, mortality rates in 2023 would have been much lower.” The mortality monitors have been updated to take account of revised population estimates that lead us to decrease our estimate of excess mortality since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. This primarily affected excess deaths measured in 2022 and 2023, with excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 relatively unchanged. As previously noted, we intend to stop calculating excess mortality after this week’s monitor. While monitoring excess deaths was informative early in the pandemic, calculation of excess deaths becomes more subjective the further we get from our pre-pandemic benchmark year of 2019. We will still include standardised mortality rates in future versions of the monitor. Users will be able to see how mortality in each year compares, but we will no longer make a comparison to a pre-pandemic benchmark. All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available from: https://lnkd.in/gepZwWn

Answer Is the mortality rate increasing? The age-adjusted death rate decreased by 9.2% from 879.7 deaths per 100,000 standard population in 2021 to 798.8 in 2022. Age-specific death rates increased from 2021 to 2022 for age groups 1–4 and 5–14 years and decreased for all age groups 15 years and older. https://lnkd.in/dKekcfSC. What is the dying rate in the world? 13.1 deaths/1,000 population (2023 est.) https://lnkd.in/dbvnhhY2.) What is the #1 cause of death globally? This includes cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and chronic respiratory diseases. They tend to develop gradually over time and aren't infectious themselves. Heart diseases were the most common cause, responsible for a third of all deaths globally. Cancers were in second, causing almost one-in-five deaths. https://lnkd.in/d7mrF8Xe. Did you see my point when I posted this much about healthy snacks and healthy foods, the consequences on your genes, and which was the root of this disease? Did you see the role of healthy social interactions and relationships and stress levels in the function of the thyroid? Did you see the highlighted role of self-esteem for being a healthy human in society and the impact of some "Visual power "examples on your self-esteem? the cycle was very complicated I tried my best, and I hope I clarified what I wish for to say ....

📃Scientific paper: Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality Abstract: Background Increasing life expectancy and persistently low fertility levels have led to old population age structures in most high-income countries, and population ageing is expected to continue or even accelerate in the coming decades. While older adults on average have few interactions that potentially could lead to disease transmission, their morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, respiratory infections in particular, remain substantial. We aim to explore how population ageing affects the future transmission dynamics and mortality burden of emerging respiratory infections. Methods Using longitudinal individual-level data from population registers, we model the Belgian population with evolving age and household structures, and explicitly consider long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Three scenarios are presented for the future proportion of older adults living in LTCFs. For each demographic scenario, we simulate outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and a novel influenza A virus in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 and distinguish between household and community transmission. We estimate attack rates by age and household size/type, as well as disease-related deaths and the associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost. Results As the population is ageing, small households and LTCFs become more prevalent. Additionally, families with children become smaller (i.e. low fertility, single-parent families). The overall attack rate slightly decreases as the population is agei... Continued on ES/IODE ➡️ https://etcse.fr/BVfI ------- If you find this interesting, feel free to follow, comment and share. We need your help to enhance our visibility, so that our platform continues to serve you.

Did you know - #dementia is the 2nd most common doctor-certified cause of death (after cancer). As we pursue innovative aging in place strategies, we need to prioritise how we support those living with dementia, and their care givers. The ABS reports 15,670 deaths (ytd) where dementia was cited as the primary cause. More than respiratory disease, ischemic heart disease, other cardiac conditions and diabetes. Deaths due to dementia in Nov 2023 were 18.5% above baseline and 6.0% above the number in 2022. For 2023 (to end Nov), deaths due to dementia were 11.7% above baseline. Encouragingly, this is 3.2% below 2022 ytd to Nov. #dementiacare #dementiaawareness #agedcare Dementia Australia 3303.0.55.004 Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Nov 2023 https://lnkd.in/gikv8-9B

Covid-19 in numbers: Lancet study reveals how many South Africans died during Covid-19 The average life expectancy of people across the world dropped by 1.6 years in the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is according to a new Lancet study. The study suggests mortality rates had been steadily falling for the 70 years before Covid-19 infections began to spread. However, the Covid years saw a reversal of this and the global mortality jumped from 2019 to 2021, rising 22% in males over age 15, and 17% for women. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22.7 years (in other words, from 49 to 71.7 years) overall. That number was impacted by a 1.6-year drop worldwide between 2019 and 202. Of the 204 countries and territories studied by Lancet, only 32 countries saw an increase in expected life expectancy between 2019 and 2021. Statistics Out of the 31 million global deaths in 2020 and 2021, 12.3% of this number can be attributed to Covid-19, according to Lancet. This is either through direct infection or social, economic or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic. While overall mortality increased, global deaths in children saw a decline in 2020 and 2021. A total of 5.21 million people under the age of five died in 2019, significantly higher than the 4.66 that died in 2021. Mortality rates among young children decreased by 7% from 2019 to 2021. ***Click on banner below to access the rest of this paper. Posted by Larry Cole

📃Scientific paper: Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality Abstract: Background Increasing life expectancy and persistently low fertility levels have led to old population age structures in most high-income countries, and population ageing is expected to continue or even accelerate in the coming decades. While older adults on average have few interactions that potentially could lead to disease transmission, their morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, respiratory infections in particular, remain substantial. We aim to explore how population ageing affects the future transmission dynamics and mortality burden of emerging respiratory infections. Methods Using longitudinal individual-level data from population registers, we model the Belgian population with evolving age and household structures, and explicitly consider long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Three scenarios are presented for the future proportion of older adults living in LTCFs. For each demographic scenario, we simulate outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and a novel influenza A virus in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 and distinguish between household and community transmission. We estimate attack rates by age and household size/type, as well as disease-related deaths and the associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost. Results As the population is ageing, small households and LTCFs become more prevalent. Additionally, families with children become smaller (i.e. low fertility, single-parent families). The overall attack rate slightly decreases as the population is agei... Continued on ES/IODE ➡️ https://etcse.fr/BVfI ------- If you find this interesting, feel free to follow, comment and share. We need your help to enhance our visibility, so that our platform continues to serve you.

Findings from #GBD reveal that #COVID-19 emerged as the second leading cause of age-standardized death in 2021, displacing stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The pandemic's toll varied globally, with the highest death rates in #sub-Saharan Africa and #Latin #America, and the least in high-income regions and parts of Asia and Oceania. Between 1990 and 2019, global life expectancy rose due to declines in various diseases, but the pandemic reduced it by 1.6 years from 2019 to 2021, with the extent of reduction varying by region. Additionally, the findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. #Lancet #GBD via Simon Hay et al