Congressional Budget Office’s Post

The US Navy’s 2025 ship building plan is depressing read to say the least.. "CBO estimates that total shipbuilding costs would average $40 billion (in 2024 dollars) over the next 30 years, which is about 17 percent more than the Navy estimates, and 46 percent more annually in real terms (that is, adjusted to remove the effects of inflation) than the average amount appropriated over the past 5 years." "The number of battle force ships would increase from 295 today to 390 in 2054. Before increasing, however, the fleet would become smaller in the near term, falling to 283 ships in 2027. Overall, under the 2025 plan, the Navy would buy more current generation ships and more smaller ships than it would have purchased under any of the 2024 plan’s three alternatives." "The fleet’s firepower would be reduced over the next decade, but thereafter, as the fleet grew, its firepower would increase and become distributed among more ships."

A robust and self-sufficient industrial base is paramount to supporting the needs of the nation, and at Scot Forge, we have the capacity to serve the Navy's aggressive build schedule as that need increases. Read more about U.S. forging capacity: https://lnkd.in/gx8eapZU

US Navy destroyers just got more expensive. The price increase is $400M, with the average cost increasing from $2.1B to $2.5B per hull for new Burke-class ships. “The Navy stated in a briefing to Congressional Budget Office and [the Congressional Research Service] that the increase in its estimates of the cost of the DDG-51 Flight III destroyers was attributable to shipbuilding inflation’s outpacing economy-wide inflation as well as declining shipyard performance” The CBO also estimates the next-generation destroyer - DDG(X) - will swell from $3.3B to $4.4B per hull, and the delayed Constellation-class frigate will increase price 40 percent, from $1B to $1.4B. #shipbuilding #inflation #capitalparkpartners

Given the GAO’s findings on cost and schedule risks stemming from substantial design modifications after construction began, could these issues prompt the new administration to accept the sunk cost and cancel the Constellation-class program in favor of pursuing an alternative? What lessons have we learned from the LCS program, which faced significant challenges due to design instability resulting in a crumbling iron triangle of program management—cost, schedule, and performance?

Now may be the time to cultivate and employ the concept of a "shipyard in a box" based on rapid shipbuilding concepts from Word War I and World War II. At the start of both World Wars the U.S. needed massive numbers of ships in short order. It commissioned and supported private industry to create almost "pop-up ship yards" with government assistance in funding and land acquisition. These yards, numbering in the hundreds scattered all across the country produced hundreds and hundreds of ships, many of the cargo and transport variety to support the war effort. After the war many of these yards stood down, were converted to other uses or even simply abandon. Jones Point in Alexandria, VA, was just one such location where all that remains today are a few stones and rails in an otherwise bucolic national park highlighted by signs retelling the history. One interesting note is that due to the short duration of WW I after the U.S. finally entered it, many of the ships built in the Alexandria Yard never got to serve and were scuttled or abandoned. This could be avoided by using designs easily converted to civilian needs to help rebuild the U.S. merchant fleet after any future war. This would also be a way of addressing the need for massive numbers of drones in a future conflict as their smaller size could be easily accommodated in a smaller yard. These yards could be started up out of predesigned cargo containers with the necessary equipment and licenses to begin production. Prefabrication, 3D printing, robotics and AI should make this far easier than 1918.    Thoughts? J. Scott Christian; Timothy Lawn, M.A.; Casey Fleming; Brent Sadler; Admiral James G. Foggo (ret.) MSC; Dakota Wood; Admiral James Stavridis; Rear Admiral Tim Gallaudet, PhD, US Navy (ret) #shipbuilding, #shipyards #shipyardinabox #popupshipyard #readiness #logistics

2 / 2 Navy Shipbuilding Delays – Look in the Mirror As recently reported by USNI News, the design of the new Constellation-class frigate shared about 85 percent commonality with the original European multi-purpose frigate (FREMM) from which it is derived. Design changes by the Navy, however, have brought that commonality down to 15 percents, and raised cost dramatically. The Navy shipbuilding ills do not lie with the shipbuilders. The solution(s) to those ills lie in the Navy’s ability to work in and leverage the free-market economy.

Arguments against the modern efficacy of the aircraft carrier are—with notable exceptions—incomplete. They tend to focus on the susceptibility of the ships, their price tag, and their limited number. With such resolved constraints, the same could be said of any ship or submarine, or the navy writ large. We accept the depleted size of the fleet, the archaic systems we are forced to evolve and modernize for decades on end as something that is a function of Providence instead of willful, national level negligence. How many carriers should we have? For the missions we give the navy and the combat dominance we demand, we should have at least 30. We should have 1200 ships in the Navy. We should have multiple active combatant and amphibious shipbuilding programs—at all stages of development—all the time. If we really think that war with our peers is around the corner, we should be stoking the hell out of Freedom’s Forge; instead, it’s business as usual.

Another must-read from the Congressional Research Service for defense planners… We are a Maritime Nation…we need to generate the elevated, predictable, sustained Congressional funding necessary to reinvigorate the shipbuilding industrial base…we must produce the modernized naval capabilities and capacities that our country very much needs…

#NAVSEANews Alert! Today the US Navy awarded General Dynamics National Steel and Shipbuilding Company (General Dynamics NASSCO), a contract for a block buy of up to eight John Lewis Class Fleet Replenishment Oilers (T-AOs). Vital to the Navy’s Combat Logistic Force, T-AOs are essential to providing refueling capabilities throughout the Fleet. The first ship from this contract is scheduled to be delivered in 2029. The use of this T-AO “block buy” contract will result in a significant savings compared to the total costs of carrying out the program through separate annual contracts. T-AO program savings of $491 million across six fiscal years are expected. This T-AO block buy delivers on the Department of Navy’s commitment to get more players on the field while growing near-term capability and capacity. In keeping with the Secretary of the Navy’s Maritime Statecraft initiative, this award reflects innovation to build and sustain our maritime dominance and allows for critical investment and sustainment of our shipbuilding industrial base, helping to ensure stability, and jobs for the next decade. Read more about this significant contract announcement at the links below: https://lnkd.in/ePfBje9q https://lnkd.in/eqj_KT8N #MorePlayersOnTheField Picture: U.S. Navy photo of T-AO 207

🔊 Sound On —Discover how 3D-printed copper-nickel components are revolutionizing U.S. Navy shipbuilding in this special edition of Defense and Munitions’ “Manufacturing Matters” on the MFG Radio Network. Tune in as Mike Shepard, Bob Markley (AMUG🦕), and Robert Dunn share insights on additive innovation for defense. Listen now: https://bit.ly/3ZuecFq