City AM’s Post

Wage growth did not budge in the first quarter of the year as the Bank of England deliberates on whether to cut interest rates at its next meeting in June. Annual pay growth excluding bonuses averaged 6.0 per cent between January and March, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), unchanged from 6.0 per cent last month and slightly ahead of expectations. Including bonuses, pay growth came in at 5.7 per cent, unchanged from last month’s upwardly revised figure of 5.7 per cent. Economists had expected it to fall to 5.5 per cent. ✍️ Christopher Dorrell Continue reading 👇 https://lnkd.in/dFXjPYbc #wages #wagegrowth #economy #ukeconomy #interestrates #pay #uk #news

Wage growth cools slightly giving Bank of England space to hold interest rate. Annual wages grew 7.3 per cent in the three months to the end of October, a slight fall on the month before and a figure which will give the Bank of England more freedom to hold interest rates later this week. The readout is slightly lower than consensus of 7.4 per cent and some way down on the 7.7 per cent growth seen the month before. Inflation sits at 4.7 per cent. The Office for National Statistics reckons real pay growth is averaging just above 1 per cent. #wagesandsalaries #inflation #costofliving #employmentlawuk via City AM

Although regular pay growth in the UK edged down, it still remains above levels where the Bank of England would initiate interest rate cuts. The latest commentary from Indeed Hiring Lab recognizes the easing of pay pressures on the UK labour market, but explains why a cut in interest rates is not yet in the cards. Read the full post here https://lnkd.in/gGi_3sMy #indeed #hiringlab #labourmarket

📈 Bank of England Interest Rate Cut: 50/50 Chance? The latest employment figures have sparked a debate on whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates. With wage growth exceeding expectations, the Bank is concerned about the potential inflationary impact of increased consumer spending power. However, there is still more wage data to come before the rate-setting meeting on 20 June. #BankofEngland #InterestRates #Economy #contractor #contracting #contractors

On Thursday we expect the Bank Of England to hold rates at 5.25%. Q4 figures show stagnation in the UK economy with GDP contracting by 0.3% in October. As we approach year end we continue to evaluate the impact this is having on the job market. ONS figures have reported a drop in earnings growth with the number of job vancancies falling. I’m currently putting together a year end market review specific to the UK financial services job market. If you would be interested in finding out more about our outlook for 2024 and our 2023 market report with analysis of the buy side and sell side please reach out to [email protected]

How will the Bank of England change its approach to interest rates after wage growth falls again? 🤔 The Bank of England’s most recent economic forecasts, which justified its higher-for-longer narrative on the interest rate, look increasingly out of date after new figures were published on the state of the labour market. The forecasts, made in November, suggested that pay growth would end the year around 7.2 per cent. This morning, however, official figures showed that total pay growth came in comfortably below those forecasts at 6.5 per cent. Annual wage growth of 6.5 per cent may still sound like a lot, but a look underneath the hood suggests that wage growth is slowing fast. Although the start of the year saw rapid wage growth, Hannah Slaughter, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, said there has been “barely any” growth in pay since the summer. Continue reading ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eJdKXFgW #wagegrowth #ukeconomy #interestrates #inflation #labourmarket

Daily Market Brief: Average earnings continue to fall https://lnkd.in/eRTc67fN Employment data for the three months to November showed a significant fall in average earnings, which will have supplied encouragement to those who see the Bank of England cutting interest rates sometime during this quarter. #DailyMarketNews #wagegrowth #inflation #ratecuts #monetarypolicy #redsea

Bank of England have expressed concern at the ‘elevated’ average earnings. Interest rate cuts won’t begin until inflation falls further. However continued high wage growth is fuelled in part by the cost of living pressures faced by a workforce demanding pay which will help them with higher prices and mortgage payments. Something has to give in this standoff and #pay is clearly going to be in the spotlight this year.

Is it time to rethink interest rate cuts... again? 🤔 📊 Recent CPI data shows stability, but not the decline the BoE needs to lower interest rates. As we navigate a stagnating UK economy, the key question is: will enduring high rates hinder recovery? Unexpectedly, unemployment is up to 4.2% from 3.9%. Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said the rise in the unemployment rate and the latest slowing of pay pressure suggested the labour market was generating less inflation. "The slight easing in regular pay growth will bring some comfort for the Bank of England which has relied on the pay data as a key gauge of domestic inflationary pressure," Selfin said. For those in property and development, this mixed economic picture means loan rates may not ease up soon, impacting your plans. 🔗 https://hubs.la/Q02t98SP0 How are you adjusting your plans in this economic landscape? #UKInflation #InterestRates #PropertyInvestment

💰 Pay is rising too fast for the Bank of England to cut #interestrates, economists have warned, after #wages rose by 6.2pc in the year to December. The #rise in average regular pay was the smallest in more than a year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, it was still higher than the 6pc predicted by officials at the Bank, raising fears that interest rates will be higher for longer as officials ensure inflationary pressures are fully extinguished before lowering #borrowing costs. Following the pay #data, traders in financial #markets trimmed their bets on an early rate cut, with a reduction from the current level of 5.25pc to 5pc only now fully priced in for August’s policy meeting. Read more 👇 https://lnkd.in/eP4nE-aH