I’ve been thinking about the concept of “Decision Advantage”, a term that came up several times at AUVSI — Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International Defense. According to Booz Allen, “achieving decision advantage requires greatly accelerated tasking, collecting, processing, exploiting, and dissemination of operationally useful information”.
This is extraordinarily challenging even when centralized command and control can be applied but let’s consider decision advantage in the context of autonomous warfare.
Specifically let’s consider decision advantage in the context of a “drone swarm” as envisioned by military planners paying attention to events in Ukraine ... and in the Gulf. Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to mass produce small, cheap and “disposable” drones. The history of war will tell you that mass attacks by many small forces can overwhelm a few large, sophisticated and even powerful forces (see the Bismark story in the WWII).
In context of Ukraine these small forces are relatively uncoordinated – although they may all be pre-programmed and / or individually controlled, true collaboration between autonomous devices has yet to be achieved. The ability for a “collection” of devices to receive, process, react to in-mission information and to collaboratively “decide” on an action / reaction (without ground control intervention) has not been demonstrated, at least at scale. This is the autonomous endgame. As one speaker at AUVSI put it – “whoever networks the swarm, wins”.
We have some way to go to achieve this level of capability .. particularly in the context of data. The swarm generates masses of data internally and acquires data from external sources. This data must be received distributed, analyzed and acted upon, in concert, by the swarm. Leaving aside communication channels and distributed compute, we have to manage data across the swarm such that the right data is in the right place, at the right time, in the right format and it can be trusted.
Here’s one simple truth – a cloud first, centralized approach to edge data management is doomed to fail in this scenario – potentially catastrophically.
#AUV #autonomouswarfare #droneswarm #defense #collaborativecombat
Owner - Ascalon Defence Consultancy; Aerospace & Defence Professional; Non-Exec Director; Requirements Manager; Systems Engineer; Survivability SME; Journalist
2moYou really do in order to filter the snake oil that ooozes from the industry. Furthermore, try and have just one CoE rather than permitting individual services and organisations to create lots of small fiefdoms - each with their own favourite suppliers. Recruit domain experts (there are not many….) and work hard to keep them current and retain them.