Bank of China USA’s Post

Happy to have contributed my views to below South China Morning Post SCMP story on MNCs in China by Kandy Wong. Alfredo Montufar-Helu, head of the China Centre for Economics and Business at The Conference Board, noted that while many multinational companies (MNCs) were thinking about fine-tuning strategies, they were not looking to leave the country. “The majority are taking a wait-and-see approach towards future investments in the Chinese market, which is not surprising given the disruptive effect that economic, market and geopolitical factors are having in the business landscape,” he added. “We have reached an inflection point in the Chinese market, which requires MNCs to reassess growth and profit expectations.” #China #economy #growth #business #market #opportunity #investment https://lnkd.in/gJgUe49A

Market Intelligence | Decoding US-China Political Risk for Business Investments Not only are the US attempts to decouple from China not working, but they are also creating new supply chain patterns and developing other hidden impacts on the Indo-Pacific nations.   Our Chief Analyst, Hanshih Toh, also the author of the book “Is China An Empire,” recently highlighted the implications of the US-China trade war for businesses in these two countries and beyond.   Deep and extensive knowledge of China’s economy is our foundation to turn public information into business intelligence. Follow Headland Intelligence and Melissa Tan to find out more about our due diligence and risk consulting services. https://lnkd.in/eKrqe5a6 #NuancedIntelligence #DueDiligence #PoliticalRiskAnalysis #Investigation #GeopoliticalRisk #USChinaRelationship #Friendshoring #Nearshoring

The European Union Chamber of Commerce's survey highlights European firms' caution towards investing in China amidst rising uncertainties, favoring Southeast Asia and India for growth opportunities. To Know More Info : https://lnkd.in/gf8wwD_7... #EUChamber #ChinaInvestment #BusinessConfidence #SoutheastAsia #IndiaGrowth #EconomicOutlook #GeopoliticalTensions #MarketDynamics

Call for Papers! The Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research is organising The 14th Annual International Conference on the Chinese Economy titled “China and the Global Trade Landscape: Challenges and Opportunities” on 14 October, 2024 in Hong Kong. China plays a key role in global trade. Domestically, China is making efforts to transition to a more diverse economic structure driven by technology, innovation and consumption. The geo-economic fragmentation is also leading to the realignment of the global supply chain. All these may impact China’s trade pattern and the future trends of globalization. This year’s conference will focus on trade-related topics. The deadline for the submission of paper for the conference is 31 July, 2024. For details, please check the “Call for Papers” announcement below. https://lnkd.in/gQ-V8KfM Looking forward to receiving your submission! #CallForPapers #HKIMR #ChineseEconomy #GlobalTrade

It is always worth reading the World Trade Report of the WTO. Today, the World Trade Report 2024 was published: "Trade and inclusiveness: How to make trade work for all" https://lnkd.in/es6bvM4c On the WTO blog, Chief Economist Ralph Ossa presents his highlights: "The report reaches three main conclusions. First, trade has a strong track record as a driver of inclusiveness. Second, despite this success, too many economies and people remain left behind. Third, bridging this gap requires a comprehensive strategy — one that integrates open trade with complementary domestic policies and fosters greater international cooperation." https://lnkd.in/enjhz_5S

Trade Survey of over 3,000 companies in China, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the US. A couple of conclusions: - "Concentration and complexity are deemed the greatest threats to supply chains, but it is geopolitical risks that are provoking a reconfiguration." - "The shorter the supply chain, the more short-sighted companies are when it comes to geopolitical risks." - "There is no sign of a decoupling from China. More than one-third of companies plan to increase their footprint in China, while only 11% of companies said it would decrease. European companies are clearly less worried than US firms: 39% in Germany and Spain and 33% in France expect to increase their footprint in China, compared with 27% in the US." - "China remains the world’s critical supplier, from which a full decoupling seems difficult, if not impossible." - "Geopolitics seem to be driving a partial reordering of trade patterns towards selective globalization, friendshoring and friendshipping." - "Reshoring trends to continue, but not accelerate." So, a couple of question now is whether these levels of decoupling, friendshoring and reshoring are sufficient, fit or evolving fast enough to satisfy the economic security prerequisite of de-risking? Hardly. Should more export controls, blacklisting of Chinese companies, FDI screening and outbound investment screening be expected in order to support and speed up de-risking? Likely. #China #globaltrade #internationaltrade #exportcontrols #investmentscreening #sanctions

Very useful overview of China's global agenda. It's not just global trade that China aims to re-anchor around itself, it's globalization as a whole: technology, supply chains, strategic resources, export markets, finance and payments, strategic dominance, cultural influence; now and for the whole century at least. And the Global South with Africa very much included, are the centerpiece of this strategy. The FT's emphasis on the strategy's growing pains and the continuing dominance of EU and US markets in China's trade for now, is an indication that the Collective West is still in denial about the breadth and speed of China's rise, and consequently still doesn't know how to react or counter it. All this at a moment when the basic stability required by Globalization is breaking down along the main global trade routes one after the other, while financial markets are on the brink of imploding under the centrifugal contradictions of money-printing, inflation, recession and deflation; and in the background, public order and social cohesion are breaking down at an accelerated pace in the Collective West. The FT doesn't seem to realize that even though history is often cyclical, it doesn't follow a linear function.

Dive into the strategic imperative of 'China +1' in my article for The Economic Transcript, exploring how diversifying supply chains beyond China mitigates risks and fosters resilience. Discover actionable insights on navigating global trade dynamics and optimizing business strategies in an evolving landscape. #ChinaPlusOne #SupplyChainResilience

This is my 10th year living in Asia. I moved here because of the critical role Asia plays in the future of our world. One proof point on that role of Asia from our most recent McKinsey & Company research: 60pct of the top 80 global trade routes involve Asia on at least one side. And more is to come despite current challenges. Read more in the article below.