Behramjee Ghadially’s Post

Today United Airlines unveiled major intercontinental expansion plans for Summer 2025 which saw the launch of many niche destinations being announced. The only one I found a bit surprising was the choice of Washington DC-Dakar (IAD-DSS) 3 times per week. In brief, there is much higher potential if UA instead chose to fly Abuja-Washington DC nonstop using a B787-8 three times per week for the below reasons: i. Guaranteed to almost sell out J/W class cabin in both directions for majority of the year hence seeing high yields ii. Higher p2p demand to/from IAD on ABV which can be easily further stimulated (ABV 15K versus DSS 9K) iii. Higher North America network demand for ABV versus DSS (not taking NYC into account here as DL flies it) which is important to fill the economy cabin iv. It is worth nothing that unlike Lagos airport where pax who want to continue onwards to other Nigerian cities, they have to drive 20 minutes from the international airport to the domestic one which for Abuja is not the case as its domestic flights also depart from the same building itself hence proving to be a much more convenient option. This would result in pax such as higher yielding oil workers bound to PHC/QOW/ENU/CBQ preferring to fly via ABV instead of LOS which would further have boosted UA loads to/from the city. In addition, Nigerian migrants originating from these cities and flying there being classified as VFR would also prefer flying via ABV rather than LOS due to the latter's inconvenience. IAD-Dakar may perform fine for UA, but IAD-Abuja would have fared much better on a year round basis and more importantly on the Abuja route, UA would face no direct competition nonstop to USA where as from LOS it has DL to deal with from both ATL + JFK along with numerous more one stop options via LFW/CMN/EU/ADD/NBO. The Abuja pax aren't as price conscious as the Lagos ones are and they will pay a good premium to fly nonstop to USA on UA. Just my two cents :) #abuja #nigeria #ual #united #unitedairlines #staralliance #iad #dulles #washingtondulles #deltaairlines #skyteam #b787 #b767 #washingtondc #dakar

Philippine Airlines looks to expand its footprint in the U.S. market from next year onwards (pending more wide body deliveries) as it seeks to build on its positive performance on its successful West Coast operations. Three cities it has identified for future service i.e. Las Vegas, Chicago and Houston. It used to fly to LAS via YVR (Vancouver) with 5th freedom traffic rights until a decade ago but using a gas guzzling A343 hence not feasible. Over the past year, the top un-served US/CA-MNL markets were as follows: Calgary - 129K Chicago - 87K Houston - 85K Winnipeg - 82K Miami - 71K Edmonton - 63K Orlando - 57K Washington DC - 54K Las Vegas - 52K Dallas - 34K Both IAH and ORD are about 90-120 minutes additional flying time to/from MNL hence with an A351, it would have a small payload penalty especially in the winter season flying to MNL. It may be best suited that PR focuses on LAS (3 weekly) as its next U.S. destination since its A351/B773s can fly it with a full payload both ways + via LAS it can interline with any major U.S. carrier to all the other big markets identified above due to plentiful nonstop flights available. The additional flying time incurred flying to ORD and IAH against LAS for the time being I feel is un-warranted as its less riskier interlining. One suggestion if I may, is if PAL returns to LAS it should look to be the second airline to strike a codeshare/interline deal with Southwest Airlines in the same manner that Icelandair has done since LAS is a major hub of the latter + WN can also feed its LAX/SFO/SEA services nicely with domestic U.S. business. More importantly for PAL, WN provides free 2 piece baggage allowance which is critical for the U.S.-MNL market segment + it also flies nonstop from LAS to all the major Tier 1 U.S. cities multiple times daily. #southwest #southwestairlines #ord #oneworld #deltaairlines #delta #ual #united #unitedairlines #aa #americanairlines #skyteam #staralliance #a350 #b777 #mnl #manila #philippine #filipino #las #lasvegas #chicago #houston #dallas #cathaypacific #singaporeairlines #koreanair #hawaiian #aircanada #yyc #yeg #calgary #westjet Source: https://lnkd.in/dhHhcgwA

Last week, it was disclosed by Lufthansa that they will be ending its decades long Frankfurt-Beijing flights due to increasing navigational costs by avoiding flying over Russian air space. They currently fly FRA-PEK daily using an A340. LH will however continue to operate 5 weekly MUC-PEK using an A350. My personal opinion is though the total operational costs are high for LH using an A340 flying an extra 4.25 hours round trip versus Air China, fault also lies in there being way too much excess capacity on the FRA-PEK-FRA route itself being dumped by Air China. Just the fuel burn alone is an extra 32,000 litres round trip which averages out to be an incremental cost of US$ 30,000 per flight just on fuel + you have to add the incremental navigational + crew + maintenance on top of that for basic operations. CA flies double daily B773s + LH operates a daily A340 when the p2p market demand over the past 12 months was only 78,000 pax round trip. Granted both CA and LH get a lot of beyond connecting pax at both ends of the spectrum due to their Star Alliance code share feed especially CA whose primary EU gateway point for offline stations is FRA. But that beyond transit market feed via FRA for LH comes at a low yield as they are competing against all the major EU + Gulf + Asian carriers for a slice of the pie. LH made the right commercial and financial decision as it was not viable across all fronts to continue burning cash on this sector when the 2 airplanes dedicated on this route can be re-directed elsewhere on shorter / more profitable sectors i.e. Cape Town + YVR + India in Winter 2024 season. In addition, CA's pricing strategy is way more aggressive than LH and they take a lot of transit pax for Asia via PEK to places that involve a lot of back tracking such as Thailand and Vietnam due to their very low fare offering. Compared to FRA-PEK demand, Shanghai though has much higher p2p with 188,000 pax flying this sector round trip over the past year. Surprisingly though, the yield on FRA-PVG was only 4% higher than PEK over the past year. On the PVG route, there are 3 daily nonstop flights i.e. one daily each flown by LH CA and MU respectively. If you compare, FRA-PVG with 188,000 pax p2p alone has the same number 3 daily nonstop flights against FRA-PEK with market demand of 78,000 only! What has unfortunately happened to LH here was the same fate suffered by BA as Air China too on the London route dumped too much capacity by flying double daily LHR + daily to LGW. On the PVG route, MU flies daily from both airports + CA too flies PVG-LGW! With regards to Munich-Beijing, over here too the p2p market demand is extremely small i.e. 47,000 pax round trip last year but CA flies daily + LH 5 weekly. Granted, MUC is a mega Star Alliance hub for onward transfers to Europe but if FRA-PEK cant be sustained then MUC too would struggle for LH. #lufthansa #staralliance #a340 #a330 #fra #frankfurt #muc #ba #britishairways #virginatlantic

As per publication across major GDS systems, Air India has published increasing Washington DC-Delhi nonstop flights from 4 to 5 weekly effective 29Oct. In addition, from 15Nov onwards it shall be changing the aircraft equipment being used on this route from a B787-8 to a B777-200LR. The updated past 12 months p2p demand on the India-IAD O&Ds are below: Round trip pax DEL - 91K HYD - 82K BOM - 56K BLR - 38K MAA - 37K AMD - 27K COK - 14K One O&D that AI should target aggressively is Washington-Ho Chi Minh City as AI offers the fastest flight with transit time included via DEL in both directions. The p2p market demand on IAD-SGN-IAD was 53K pax last 12 months hence quite a decently sized market segment. Other O&Ds which connect and have good demand are below: BKK - 40K KTM - 21K #airindia #iad #delhi #mumbai #b777 #b787 #staralliance #ual #unitedairlines #washingtondulles #bengaluru #blr #maa #chennai #hyd #hyderabad #oneworld #skyteam

Senegal has seen a big surge in air traffic especially from Europe post covid as well as from certain African cities too. However the type of passenger varies considerably as the Europeans are majority tourists and VFR whilst the African pax visiting Dakar is either a trader or VFR. The market segment which has seen the biggest growth in 2023 versus 2019 is Madrid-Dakar. In 2019, only 34,422 pax flew p2p MAD-DSS-MAD whilst in 2023, this figure increased more than 200% to be 110,153. This was due to many factors which I will outline below: i. Majority of the point of sale for MAD-DSS-MAD is Spain due to 2 big hotel chains opening their properties in Senegal i.e. Club Med + RUI ii. Increase of frequencies by Iberia from daily A320 to 12 weekly A330/A321 which has greatly stimulated demand iii. Migration of Senegalese into Spain though Barcelona still holds more Senegalese diaspora than Madrid. Six other market segments which have grown considerably in the post covid era are: London-Dakar (39,378 versus 19,932) by +98% Lyon-Dakar (72,337 versus 40,353) by +79% Rome-Dakar (44,099 versus 28,131) by +57% New York-Dakar (49,993 versus 32,404) by +54% Nantes-Dakar (40,686 versus 26,905) by +51% Marseille-Dakar (58,739 versus 42,050) by +40% Casablanca-Dakar (95,390 versus 77,491) by +23% Dubai-Dakar (43,287 versus 36,112) by +20% Interestingly enough in 2023, the highest yielding intercontinental route for Dakar was London Heathrow averaging US$ 840 one way with YQ included. This is due to premium travel increasing on LON-DSS as a result of oil/gas demand which will only explode higher once Senegal starts extracting from Dec 2024 onwards. In addition, British tourists whom were used to Gambian adventures, are gradually adding Senegal to their bucket list as they are keen to explore new beach cities + learn more about African slave trade history which Ghana and Senegal are popular destinations for from USA/EU. Demand on LYS/MRS/NTE increased post covid due to Air Senegal and Transavia launching flights which in turn stimulated demand especially during IATA winter season. FCO-DSS grew due to new Neos nonstop service and this should increase more in 2024 with ITA starting new 4 weekly flights. JFK-DSS grew as a result of Air Senegal launching + Delta increasing frequencies in turn. But now HC has suspended flying so the p2p demand should drop a bit going forward. However, HC suspension of LYS/MRS/BCN/MXP will not lead to downward demand as Transavia. Iberia and Italian carriers have added capacity in turn. Inbound tourism from EU/USA into Senegal is surging yet unfortunately it is foreign carriers largely that are reaping the benefits of the demand boom. #senegal #dakar #westafrica #cdg #fco #mxp #lys #marseille #lys #dxb #emiratesairline #ecowas #airfrance #transavia #snbrussels #lyon #royalairmaroc #delta #deltaairlines #b777 #b787 #a350 #a330 #b737 #iberia #iberiaairlines #oneworld #staralliance #skyteam #bcn #madrid #a320 #vueling

Cathay Pacific announces major North America expansions for 2025 with a new 4 weekly nonstop service to Dallas being launched from 24Apr using an Airbus A350-1000. In addition, it has also confirmed frequency increases to below destinations in Summer 2025: JFK/LAX/SFO all going triple daily (LAX/SFO triple daily published with A359) BOS/ORD increasing to daily YVR increasing to double daily A359 YYZ increasing to 13 weekly A359 Over the past 12 months, the total p2p demand between Texas and HKG was 69,000 passengers with Houston coming on top with 38K followed by DFW with 22K and Austin 9K each respectively. Even though IAH has nearly double the p2p demand of DFW, CX has chosen the latter as its a mega one world partner hub of American Airlines who shall code share and feed this new flight with loads of onward connecting pax to all across Central and Eastern USA. CX will also be able to easily stimulate p2p DFW-HKG demand by at least +50% in its first year + shall get a good chunk of the Asia transit traffic whose final destination is DFW itself. Two big O&Ds it would be laser focused on are Vietnam and Manila to DFW. SGN/HAN-DFW was 64K p2p whilst MNL-DFW was 35K. Business class loads should be very high on this new DFW service year round facilitated by accessing sales via AA's corporate accounts in USA. With regards to the other cities getting frequency increases from Summer 2025 onwards, their respective p2p demand to/from HKG over the past year were as follows: SFO - 271K JFK - 268K YVR - 243K YYZ - 238K LAX - 220K BOS - 62K ORD - 53K CX is smart not to re-enter Seattle for the time being as the excess capacity being dumped there by the Taiwanese carriers and soon PAL is not worth the hassle. #a350 #b777 #b787 #hkg #oneworld #staralliance #skyteam #cathaypacific #aa #americanairlines #delta #deltaairlines #ual #dfw #iah #jfk #sfo #lax #aircanada #yyz #yvr #singaporeairlines #dallas #houston #texas #a330 #b747 #a380

Delta Airlines announces Dakar-New York increased from 3 to 4 weekly nonstop flights using a Boeing 767-300ER effective 02Dec but only until 14Jan in order to cater for peak winter season demand. New additional service is on Mondays along side its existing Tue/Thu/Sat flights. This is being helped with the withdrawal of Air Senegal (HC) from the JFK-DSS sector which it had operated twice weekly. Over the past year, 48,000 pax flew p2p between NYC and DSS. #dakar #senegal #westafrica #delta #deltaairlines #skyteam #b767 #jfk

Food for thought - In July 2022, Jetblue offered to pay US$ 3.8 billion to purchase Spirit Airlines. Today 2 years and 2 months later, Jetblue is worth $ 2.05 billion whilst Spirit is valued at US$ 281 million each respectively as of the Dow Jones close of day on 12Sep. #jetblue #spiritairlines #jfk #lax #fll #a320 #a320neo #a321 #a220 #ewr #deltaairlines #aa #dl #ua #united #ual #southwestairlines #frontier #mco #fortlauderdale #miami #americanairlines #unitedairlines #oneworld #staralliance #skyteam #iad #washingtondulles #dca #sfo #las

Air France has officially announced that it shall be launching new 3 weekly nonstop flights to Manila effective 07Dec 2024 using an Airbus A350-900. This seems to be the airplane taken from the recently announced Abu Dhabi route suspension (due to commercial reasons) which lasted a year only. The schedule of CDG-MNL-CDG is as follows: Days 1/3/6 AF 208 Dep CDG 2320 Arr MNL 1930+1 AF 209 Dep MNL 2150 Arr CDG 0550+1 With KLM also currently offering a 4 weekly service, this would mean the AF-KL group would be able to offer a daily service out of Europe into Manila which no other EU carrier currently does which gives them a competitive edge. The main competition on EU-MNL comes from QR EY EK TK CX and SQ primarily but more so from the Gulf carriers who offer multiple daily flights to EU Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities now along with MNL too. The Paris-Manila p2p market segment in 2023 saw 98,000 passengers flying between the two cities at an average fare of US$ 750 one way with YQ included. It was the third biggest European market segment for Manila after London and Amsterdam. Surprisingly, the highest yielding EU-MNL market segment last year as BCN-MNL ($815) followed by ZRH-MNL ($803) and AMS-MNL ($794) each respectively. Taking into account the planned schedule, AF will be primarily targeting UK and Western Europe traffic on the MNL route and should see heavy "directional" loads and yields in Dec and Jan especially. What shall be interesting to monitor are the loads/yields between Feb-May. However since Europeans love to getaway from the cold winter there to various parts of Asia/South Africa, I wont be surprised if during this period AF maintains good loads on Manila as it will be a new market segment for the French people to explore and its more or less the same cost of holiday as Thailand/Vietnam/Malaysia. The top markets relevant for AF to target on the MNL route are as follows: LON - 247K AMS - 101K MXP - 89K (has the lowest yield though) FCO - 78K MAD - 52K FRA - 50K BCN - 43K VIE - 34K ZRH - 33K BRU - 31K MAN - 30K OSL - 29K ATH - 27K DUB - 26K CPH - 25K HAM - 24K MUC - 20K Based on the above numbers, the demand from EU to MNL is there +AF will surely stimulate the p2p CDG-MNL segment by +30% minimum. Belly cargo loads should be heavy both ways which would help a lot in obtaining incremental revenue. It will definitely poach away a decent chunk of the EU-MNL market share from the Gulf carriers but that wont effect them so much as whatever they would lose to AF, they can easily make up for at higher yields out of the GCC. The route should be able to generate an operating profit but it is extremely unlikely to make a net profit in the long run. #airfrance #cdg #manila #mnl #phillippines #skyteam #a350 #b787 #b777 #klm #phillippineairlines #cathaypacific #singaporeairlines #heathrow #thaiairways #staralliance #oneworld #lhr Source:

Malaysia Airlines has officially announced today that it shall be re-launching nonstop service to Paris after a gap of 9 years. New daily flights shall be operated using its flagship Airbus A350-900s effective 22Mar with an arrival time of 0640 into CDG and departing back at 1125. This schedule enables MH to connect both ways via KUL its core Austral-Asia network conveniently. In 2023, the p2p demand between Paris and KUL was 72,000 pax round trip paying an average fare of US$ 672 one way with YQ included. Some may ask why did MH choose CDG over other EU cities and the answer to that is three fold i.e. i. It has the biggest p2p demand of any mainland EU city to KUL (yes even more than AMS/FRA/MXP/ZRH) ii. MH would have a monopoly on the p2p market segment (very important to generate higher cabin yields) iii. Lastly, the feeder market demand to MH's ASEAN + Aussie network that can be obtained out of CDG is higher than the other Tier 1 EU cities The top markets that MH should be targeting via KUL are below (I did not include ICN/PEK/PVG/NRT/KIX as it involves too much back tracking hence not worth it): 2023 demand stats below BKK - 381K SIN - 223K DPS - 162K HKG - 161K TPE - 135K SGN - 130K SYD - 116K HAN - 103K MNL - 98K HKT - 97K MEL - 87K CGK - 80K PNH - 59K BNE - 42K AKL - 37K PER - 28K With a daily nonstop service being launched on a market segment which sees no direct service, MH should be easily able to stimulate this O&D by +35% in its first year + get a decent amount of feed for domestic Malaysia leisure cities such as Langkawi and Kota Kinabalu and most of all guaranteed high cargo loads in the belly in both directions! Can this route making an operating cash profit? Yes it can but it wont be able to make a "net profit" ! However in turn, it will help contribute positively and increase seat factor on a number of its Asian and Aussie routes. #paris #kualalumpur #cdg #kul #oneworld #a350 #a330 #malaysia #mh #malaysiaairlines #malaysian #airfrance #skyteam #staralliance #singaporeairlines #sq #tg #thaiairways #cathaypacific #thai #singapore