Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Post

https://lnkd.in/dkgfWa5j A Weaker Europe on China – At the Worst Time July 22nd, 2024 By Asia Society Policy Institute Research Associate, Dominique Fraser Murmurs of trade war are getting louder. Not just between China and the United States should Donald Trump be re-elected, but also between China and Europe. Now more than ever it’s important for Europe to speak with one voice on global affairs. But recent elections make this much less likely. We should expect a Europe that is more divided and less coherent on foreign policy issues, including ones that are important to Australia, most notably policy towards China. A weaker and more divided Europe matters for Australia. The bloc is the world’s third-largest economy and has become an important player in efforts to resist Beijing’s use of economic coercion. More recently, it has started to play a greater strategic and military role in the Indo-Pacific, illustrated by the strong European contingent participating in the Royal Australian Air Force’s “Pitch Black” exercises this year. It has always been a challenge for Europe to be more than the sum of its parts on foreign policy. But recent election results suggest it will now be even harder for the EU to stand on its own two feet as a global actor, let alone get the 27 sets of feet walking in the same direction.

Taiwan’s New President Won’t Placate China – Foreign Policy Within the DPP, Lai has a reputation as a so-called deep green politician for his strong advocacy for an independent Taiwan. Yet he has also said there is no need for Taiwan to declare independence since it is already effectively a sovereign state and that he wants to keep the status quo with China. “We don’t want to become enemies with China. We can become friends,” he said in July. - Lai’s position is unlikely to placate Beijing, which sees the incoming president as a separatist, especially after he picked Taiwan’s former representative to the United States, Hsiao Bi-khim, as his running mate. Yet China’s reaction to Lai’s win is so far muted, restricted to boilerplate language and dismissing the legitimacy of the election. China’s domestic troubles, including an economic slowdown, have limited its desire to rock the boat when it comes to Taiwan. https://lnkd.in/gHjhEnBn

Esteemed friend, the upcoming **"two sessions"** in China, also known as **"lianghui"**, serve as a crucial event for the nation. These sessions, which bring together China's political elite and lawmakers, play a significant role in shaping the country's future. In the wake of recent high-level purges, where several senior officials were removed from their positions, there are lingering questions about key posts and top-level vetting. Notably, figures like Qin Gang (China's shortest-serving foreign minister) and Li Shangfu (China's shortest-serving defense minister) have vanished from public view. The lack of official explanations has fueled speculation about political uncertainties and economic confidence. However, experts believe that this year's "two sessions" present a unique opportunity for President Xi Jinping to address these loose ends. During this event, lawmakers will adopt Premier Li Qiang's government work report, approve key budgets (including military spending), and possibly endorse personnel decisions. It's a chance for Xi to project solidarity and boost both domestic and international confidence. As the world watches, the "two sessions" will unfold, potentially providing clarity on China's political landscape and signaling the nation's direction for the year ahead¹. 🇨🇳 Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/3/2024 (1) China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: after high-level purges, will party leadership tidy up loose ends?. https://lnkd.in/gpNrS7An. (2) China’s ‘two sessions’ 2024: after high-level purges, will party .... https://lnkd.in/gyCUdf96. (3) Explainer: what is China’s ‘two sessions’ gathering, and why does it .... https://lnkd.in/gvRXrPTB. (4) Intrigue swirls about possible reshuffles as China’s parliament .... https://lnkd.in/gCHfMFxQ.

Not to get too political on LinkedIn, but I haven't noticed much local discussion at all about the upcoming US election. It is easily as significant for Taiwan as its own presidential election. Trump prides himself on unpredictability in his foreign policy. In his first term, that resulted in a forward-looking anti-China policy. Would the same be true the second time around? Or would his isolationist tendencies take precedence over alliance building? This Foreign Policy article argues that Trump would not abandon Asia in quite the same way he would Europe, which is reasonable. However it also notes that US ability to form a coherent Asia policy (with which Biden has admittedly also struggled) would be severely diminished by domestic distractions. https://lnkd.in/gzn6Skzc Taiwan (and other Asian countries) cannot afford to be too outspoken about American politics, but they should at least be closely following developments across the Pacific, and perhaps making their voices heard at certain key moments.

United States manipulates in politics in Taiwan The US’ thinly-veiled policy of playing the so-called Taiwan card to support its geopolitical strategy of containing China is continuing after the regional election of Taiwan island with US lawmakers reportedly scheduling to go to the island. Analysts said that there is nothing new about the US politicians’ trip to the island, but it’s still a provocative move against the one-China principle, and the Chinese mainland will take actions to respond based on the level of provocation made by the US and the Taiwan authorities. Chinese experts said that the US will keep manipulating Taiwan politics but Washington is also being restrained as being overly provocative might cause the situation losing control, especially when the US is busy to deal with the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at the same time in the year of US presidential election. The Chinese mainland will try to safeguard the peace across the Taiwan https://lnkd.in/gjU2qAcE

Many thanks to CNN for featuring my comments on the implications of a Trump Return vs. Biden II for Sino-American relations: //'Officials who are part of the ruling Communist Party’s foreign affairs office have likely been tasked with “scenario-planning and evidence-informed analyses” of the implications of a Trump or Biden win, which would each pose different risks for Beijing, according to Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World. “The priorities are to ensure China remains secure from foreign security and military interference, that it is financially and economically secure,” Wong added. The former president’s return to office, however, would make for “less predictability” and could “pose greater tail-end risks when it comes to accidental kinetic escalation induced by posturing from either Beijing or Washington,” according to Wong in Hong Kong. A second Biden term, he noted, could see a “more successful multi-lateral, concerted effort aimed at containing China,” with a “tacit agreement to not allow for unbridled escalation over Taiwan and the South China Sea,” another pressure point in relations between the two. Biden has appeared as a staunch backer of Taiwan, at times appearing to step away from America’s policy of strategic ambiguity to say the US would defend the island militarily if attacked (though such statements have quickly been walked back by White House staffers who say the policy remains.) Together, all this raises a complicated picture for Chinese officials. But it’s also one with a clear bottom line, according to Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. “Whoever wins – the structure of (US) confrontation, competition, pressure to China are still there,” he said.'//

China Primer: China’s Political System Introduction The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) is the only Communist Party-led state either among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council or among the members of the G-20 grouping of major economies. As Congress has intensified its focus on China in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition, Members have increasingly sought to legislate and conduct oversight on matters that require an understanding of the PRC political system. Select features of that system are introduced below. h/t Don Clarke https://lnkd.in/gPrA5eZh

CRS China Primer: China’s Political System [1 July 2024] https://lnkd.in/gYSeuGUw   Introduction The People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) is the only Communist Party-led state either among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council or among the members of the G-20 grouping of major economies. As Congress has intensified its focus on China in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition, Members have increasingly sought to legislate and conduct oversight on matters that require an understanding of the PRC political system. Select features of that system are introduced below

It’s time for the British Foreign Secretary to undertake a “Year of Democracy” tour. — In the spirit of British politics, it’s time for me to claim credit for influencing a decision, provide no substantial proof that my work was the deciding factor, and notch it up as a victorious campaign. You may recall that a couple of weeks ago, I shared an analysis breaking down the countries Foreign Secretary David Cameron had visited over his first 100 days or so. Missing, I argued, were any trips to the Indo-Pacific, despite it being a key strategic and economic region for the UK’s long-term interests. Showing face and facilitating conversations with Indo-Pacific leaders matters: the UK cannot be seen to simply only turn up when it needs something from one of these countries, and then be MIA the rest of the time. Well, The Guardian reported on Monday that the Foreign Secretary will be going to the region in the next couple of months, although India and China don’t seem to be on his list currently. Regardless, it will be his first major official trip into the region since his time as Prime Minister. I would argue it's a very good thing for senior politicians to be out and about in the world, particularly at this present moment, for the UK’s image and also for their domestic election campaigns. Although it’s not a popular view yet, I believe foreign and defence policy will feature in this election in a way not seen in years. That means political parties should be evidencing to voters how they are thinking and acting about these two issues. In the words of former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace this week, “I fear that both parties will do the usual thing and say “we don’t want defence to become an election issue”. Well it must and it should be.” In the spirit of asking for things that may happen and then claiming credit for when they do: I think Foreign Secretary David Cameron, or his successor, should commit to a ‘Year of Democracy’ tour, visiting nations that have voted this year to pass on the UK’s congratulations, cement ties, and show that we are as invested in their functioning democracies as they are. India, Tuvalu, South Korea, Mongolia - the list goes on and on. And if you’re looking for someone to come and sit with you on the plane, I’m sure I could eke out some time. Fingers crossed!