What solar, wind, renewable energy, net-zero and climate policies have not accomplished.
Here is what net zero and climate policies have not accomplished.
Solar, Wind, and Peak Oil.
1. Despite the impressive number of new Wind and Solar plants and their gigawatts of energy produced, the reality is that Wind and solar have only supplied 45 Exajoules of energy in the last 27 years, averaging 1.7 exajoules per year.
2. To put this into perspective, each exajoule equals 174 million barrels of oil. The urgency of the situation becomes clear when we consider that until Wind, solar, and renewables can grow exajoules by 9.4 exajoules per year for the next 26 years and have an electricity generation capacity of approximately 250 exajoules of energy by 2050, the "energy transition" will never replace peak oil.
3. Reaching net zero would require more nuclear, hydro, hydrogen, batteries, and whatever other sources of energy we can create.
4. It's crucial to acknowledge the global scale of the issue. From 1997, the year of the Kyoto Protocol, to 2022, the world's dependence on fossil fuels has grown significantly, as the energy use of crude oil has increased by 180 exajoules, a staggering figure. This stark reality underscores that crude nor coal, demand has not peaked.
5. Let's delve into the specific case of China. China has increased its use of crude oil from 5 million barrels per day in 2011 to 11.3 million barrels per day in 2023, representing a rise in energy consumption from 10.49 exajoules to 23.7 exajoules.
6. This increase reflects China's growing reliance on fossil fuels, driven by its rapid industrialization and economic growth. India is also importing more oil per day, a trend that mirrors its own economic expansion. Only when the developing nations' demand for crude oil, coal, and natural gas stabilizes and they have industrialized will there be a peak in oil demand.
7. Additionally, China's coal use in exajoules [EJ] has grown from 22 exajoules in 1998 to 88 exajoules by 2022, an increase of 400%. India's coal use has grown from 457 million tons, or 13.39 Exajoules. to 1155 million tons in 2023, or 33.77 Exajoules, an increase of 252%. Globally, coal consumption has increased from 4.4 billion tons, or 129 Exajoules of global energy, to over 8 billion tons by 2023, or 234 Exajoules, an increase of 181%.
8. Just accounting for coal and crude, the increase in exajoules of fossil fuels consumed is 180 exajoules for crude oil and 105 [234-129], an increase of 295 exajoules in the use of coal and crude.
Article on peak oil: https://lnkd.in/gE_mwmp8.
Facts from Vaclav Smil, report on Achieving Net Zero, 2024.
I formed a group on Electricity Generation Worldwide, https://lnkd.in/graRy4uz
1