Pascale Combelles Siegel

The steady decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies has turned up the heat in the Indo-Pacific, and as great power competition intensifies, tensions are beginning to boil. Decades of economic development and US-led global cooperation have held conflicts to a low simmer, but the new world order is amplifying ideological schisms and resurfacing animosities rooted in history, politics, and culture. Increasing competition for the control of lucrative trade routes and natural resources is… Show more

The steady decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies has turned up the heat in the Indo-Pacific, and as great power competition intensifies, tensions are beginning to boil. Decades of economic development and US-led global cooperation have held conflicts to a low simmer, but the new world order is amplifying ideological schisms and resurfacing animosities rooted in history, politics, and culture. Increasing competition for the control of lucrative trade routes and natural resources is aggravating existing conflicts and creating new ones, while regional demographics, climate change, and scarce resources are becoming catalysts for conflict. Although the Taiwan issue has captured everyone’s attention of late, it is not the only flashpoint, nor do they all intersect with China. Rather, conflict zones and pressure points extend from East Asia to Southeast Asia to South Asia and include the leading economies of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and India. Regional fissures will intensify as the globe continues to shift to a multipolar system whereby the US and the West aren’t the sole definers and enforcers of the rules of the game. Companies and investors need to better grasp these issues and must consider the full spectrum of risks in their strategic planning – making concerted efforts to avoid regional or national biases that could stymie risk mitigation, and ensure they are properly positioned to identify and transfer risk where possible. Show less

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending the world as we know it. Vladimir Putin seeks to rewrite the global order’s rules while the West tries to restore effective deterrence. The war will have global repercussions and reverberate across business operations. Impacts will be felt through commodity price hikes, sanctions and trade restrictions, and market access limitations. Five key areas for business planning consideration are reputational, supply chain, inflation, cyber, and market access… Show more

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending the world as we know it. Vladimir Putin seeks to rewrite the global order’s rules while the West tries to restore effective deterrence. The war will have global repercussions and reverberate across business operations. Impacts will be felt through commodity price hikes, sanctions and trade restrictions, and market access limitations. Five key areas for business planning consideration are reputational, supply chain, inflation, cyber, and market access risks. Show less

2021 saw skyrocketing demand and stubbornly snarled supply chains contribute to historic disruptions and shortages. Companies scrambled to meet demand amidst rolling lockdowns, trade disputes, labor shortages, and extreme weather events. At the end of the day, consumers faced empty shelves, delayed deliveries, and higher prices, and manufacturers and retailers lost sales, trimmed profit forecasts, and reshaped financial forecasts. As we enter 2022, 41% (1) of company directors believe that… Show more

2021 saw skyrocketing demand and stubbornly snarled supply chains contribute to historic disruptions and shortages. Companies scrambled to meet demand amidst rolling lockdowns, trade disputes, labor shortages, and extreme weather events. At the end of the day, consumers faced empty shelves, delayed deliveries, and higher prices, and manufacturers and retailers lost sales, trimmed profit forecasts, and reshaped financial forecasts. As we enter 2022, 41% (1) of company directors believe that slowing global supply chain issues will negatively impact results over the next 12 months. As globalization wanes, the world finds itself on the threshold of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is opening at the foot of another cycle of great power competition. Russia and China are growing more cooperative in a quasi-unified effort to thwart U.S. economic and political hegemony. In a world marked by intensifying geopolitical competition, we anticipate supply chain pressures will remain high-increasing price volatility, disrupting supply lines, and generating losses for those caught unprepared. Supply chain managers will have to contend with six key growing challenges this year, including: Show less

With 2020 upending global affairs, our team looks at what rebuilding post-COVID-19 will mean for businesses. The worldwide response to the COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated the steepest global recession since 1929. In response, governments worldwide have vowed to “rebuild better,” a key component of which will be to transition faster to a low-carbon economy. This transformational push will shape the global business environment for years to come.

Environmentalism is drawing ever-increasing attention and support across the globe, with climate change, energy extraction and land use issues fueling increasingly frequent and devastating natural disasters, from the fires in South America and Australia in 2019 to the current COVID-19 pandemic. If a pandemic is first and foremost a health issue, ecological conditions such as urbanization, food demand putting animals and humans in close proximity, temperatures, and ease of travel facilitate the… Show more

Environmentalism is drawing ever-increasing attention and support across the globe, with climate change, energy extraction and land use issues fueling increasingly frequent and devastating natural disasters, from the fires in South America and Australia in 2019 to the current COVID-19 pandemic. If a pandemic is first and foremost a health issue, ecological conditions such as urbanization, food demand putting animals and humans in close proximity, temperatures, and ease of travel facilitate the emergence and contagion of new viruses. Celebrity environmentalists and global movements have driven an increase in media coverage around these issues, which they view as the main existential threats. Meanwhile, the high costs of dealing with the consequences of these events – culminating in the unprecedented shutting down of entire economies in the case of Covid-19 – is prompting politicians around the globe to press for change. As climate-change-related disasters proliferate and increasingly disrupt lives and economic activity, attention to ecocide will accelerate. With it, the pressure for public action in the form of public shaming, trade embargos and sanctions will intensify. Show less

Our geopolitical team has identified a few strategic trends we believe clients may expect to see in 2020. The world never fails to surprise, so we undertake this challenge with humility, but also with confidence, after a year of closely following world developments that both made and didn’t make headlines.

For the past month, Western intelligence officials have discreetly sounded alarm bells. Both through media leaks and official testimonies, French, Canadian, and UK officials have indicated that the flow of Westerners traveling to Syria to join the insurgency is increasing at an alarming pace. With these revelations, the specter of a foreign fighters-induced blowback resurfaces.

An internal document recovered by the Associated Press in Timbuktu in January 2013 sheds new light on al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) strategy in northern Mali. The letter revealed a deep strategic fracture between AQIM’s leadership and its lieutenants on the ground, as Droukdel saw a military intervention as all but inevitable and therefore wanted to focus the group’s strategy on outliving it. The letter further highlighted major internal dysfunction between AQIM’s leadership and… Show more

An internal document recovered by the Associated Press in Timbuktu in January 2013 sheds new light on al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb’s (AQIM) strategy in northern Mali. The letter revealed a deep strategic fracture between AQIM’s leadership and its lieutenants on the ground, as Droukdel saw a military intervention as all but inevitable and therefore wanted to focus the group’s strategy on outliving it. The letter further highlighted major internal dysfunction between AQIM’s leadership and its subordinates in the Sahara. Finally, it showed a deep commitment to success and a worrisome plan for the future. Show less

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a long-time Salafist-Jihadist known for his allegiance to Al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the attack on the gas complex in In-Amenas last week. He argued the attack was revenge for the French attack in Mali. However, there is little doubt that his attack was in planning long before the French went into Mali, suggesting that other reasons might be at play. Indeed, Belmokhtar was summarily fired from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb four months ago. With this attack… Show more

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a long-time Salafist-Jihadist known for his allegiance to Al Qaeda, claimed responsibility for the attack on the gas complex in In-Amenas last week. He argued the attack was revenge for the French attack in Mali. However, there is little doubt that his attack was in planning long before the French went into Mali, suggesting that other reasons might be at play. Indeed, Belmokhtar was summarily fired from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb four months ago. With this attack, he might be trying to establish his establish himself in the jihadist landscape. The real danger comes from AQIM's response and the potential for further radicalization of the two organizations competing for leadership of the Salafist-Jihadist movement in the region. Show less

As President Hollande just ordered troops in Mali, the French political establishment is already raising questions and misgivings about the operation. The weak political consensus might be the result of a self-inflicted wound - an awkwardly feeble strategic communications campaign from the top echelons of the French executive branch.