Mike Forsythe

China's irresistible rise and the US' predominance have made them classic Thucydidean rivals and put them on a path of conflict. But can they avoid war? Igor Patrick and I sat down with Professor Graham Allison, the renowned political scientist who popularised the Thucydides' trap concept, to discuss the state of US-China relations, China's growing alignment with Russia, and the odds of the heated tech rivalry between the two world powers ending in conflict. Our full interview here.

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Japan sees regional U.S. governors as one of its strongest allies and supporters, based on years of investment and community building. As hints of isolationism and protectionism appear in Washington, Japan seeks to strengthen relations with the governors to ride the political storm of the 2024 election season. Retired Amb. Ryozo Kato wrote in Nikkei that "America's strength lies not only in the federal state but in each local state." He noted that California's gross domestic product was comparable to that of India's, which would make it the world's fifth-largest economy; that Texas was comparable to Russia; and that New York's economy was roughly the size of Italy's. "Japan is at once, the biggest source of foreign direct investment in the U.S., as well as one of the rare countries that has FDI spread across each and every state," Kato wrote. Unlike trade, FDI creates local jobs and is a longtime commitment. Subnational diplomacy can govern the alliance, he argued.

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Is China more or less likely to invade Taiwan in Trump wins? With Beijing's increasing pressure for unification with Taiwan remaining committed to the status quo, a question I get at every one of my election analysis event on the Harris v Trump is a version of the above. It is a question I ask myself whenever I speak privately with current and former government officials in the region. In "How would the Trump or Harris administration approach Taiwan?", Ryan Hass and Richard Bush The Brookings Institution provide an excellent framing in responding to a question requiring a non-existent crystal ball. They note that Trump has shown skepticism about supporting Taiwan, viewing foreign policy through a transactional lens but also pointing out Trump 1.0 was proactive in security support (less so in economic relations). They think Harris would emphasize a more systematic foreign policy, focusing on upholding global principles and strengthening alliances. Her approach to Taiwan would likely continue the Biden administration's policies, emphasizing security commitments and global cooperation.  https://lnkd.in/gXbdXw86

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From Chopsticks to Diplomacy: Understanding China’s Culture-centric Influence on Foreign Relations China’s exceptional obsession with culture presents a puzzle in understanding its culture-centric mindset and its influence on Beijing’s diplomacy, GU BIN and LI MINGJIANG write. Rooted in a deep historical foundation and reinforced by a notable cultural renaissance under Xi Jinping, China’s culture-centric perception fosters a sense of distinctiveness and confidence in Chinese society. However, it also poses challenges to China’s foreign relations and its integration into the established world order.

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The White House, aiming to persuade U.S. tech giants to offer more digital bandwidth for government-funded internet censorship evasion tools, held a meeting with representatives of Amazon Web Services (AWS), Google, Microsoft, Cloudflare and others on Thursday. The tools have seen a surge of usage in Russia, Iran, Myanmar and authoritarian states that heavily censor the internet. The pitch to tech companies was to help offer discounted or heavily subsidised server bandwidth to meet the fast-growing demand for virtual private network (VPN) applications funded by the U.S.-backed Open Technology Fund, the organisation’s president, Laura Cunningham, told Reuters. The OTF specifically backs VPNs that are designed to work in states that restrict access to the internet. The U.S. injected increased funding into VPNs supported by the OTF following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Reuters exclusively reported at the time. VPNs help users hide their identity and change their online location, often to bypass geographic restrictions on content or to evade government censorship technology, by routing internet traffic through external servers outside of that government’s control. The organisation has since received a boost to its budget from the U.S. State Department but has struggled to meet increased demand in countries like Russia, Myanmar, and Iran, where internet censorship heavily restricts access to outside information.

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