Mijael Garrido-Lecca

11/19/24 National Security News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3AE1Imf 1. Irregular Warfare: Back to Basics 2. Actions create consequences: reiterating “tell me how it ends" – the case for explicit articulation 3. Can Trump get a deal on Ukraine? by Sir Lwarence Freedman 4. "De Oppresso Liber": What Trump's national security advisor pick means for Ukraine 5. The Ten Commandments for DC - Guidance for the New and Wanna Be Swamp Denizen. (Slightly revised for 2025.) 6. Addressing 4th, 5th Generation, and Hybrid Warfare Threats to the United States: The War Has Started 7. A makeshift memorial grows in Ukraine’s capital after 1,000 days of war 8. 1000 Days of War by Mick Ryan 9. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18, 2024 10. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, November 18, 2024 11. US signs long-sought intelligence sharing deal with the Philippines 12. Ukraine Is Now a Proxy War for Asian Powers 13. Can Trump’s Hardball Tactics on China Ease America’s Fentanyl Crisis? 14.  AUKUS alliance seals plans for collaboration on hypersonics testing 15. Water Can Be a Global Security Issue. This New Tool Will Help The Military Plan 16. Former Preschool Teacher Downs Russian Cruise Missile with Her First “Live” Shoot 17. How Trump Can Build on Biden’s Successes in Asia 18. Was Attack on Ammo Depot in Russia’s Bryansk Region First Cross-Border ATACMS Strike? Russia Says Yes 19. How Ukraine's use of longer-range U.S. missiles might affect course of the war

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The list of traditional values which Russia seeks to protect, and which is given in Russian regulatory documents is made quite vague and casts a wide net in order to be appropriate for multiple audiences. #RussianIdeology https://ow.ly/em6F50TlbOz

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As the Maduro regime leads Venezuela into diplomatic exile, the PRC will remain a decisive lifeline for Maduro to protect his position in power. Washington's harsh economic policies against Venezuela accomplished little and drove the Latin American country further into the arms of the PRC. To uphold a reputation as a stable partner in Latin America, the United States should use sanctions to target the Maduro regime directly and avoid exacerbating Venezuelans’ already dire humanitarian crisis. Check out our latest article by Grace Deri here: https://lnkd.in/eKrjXnex

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Maduro's Reelection and Its Repercussions On July 20, 2024, Nicolás Maduro was reelected as Venezuela's president, triggering a crisis with violence where security forces used live ammunition against civilians. Repression and State of Emergency The National Guard was deployed nationwide, and security forces opened fire on protesters to disperse them. Only a few nations, like China, Iran, and Syria, validated Maduro's reelection, while most South American countries, the United States, and European nations rejected it. International Reactions and Diplomatic Isolation Maduro's reelection has plunged Venezuela into a major political and security crisis, exacerbated by violent repression and increased popular dissent. The non-recognition of the election by most of the international community could reinforce Venezuela's isolation. This could lead to new economic sanctions, worsening the already severe economic crisis facing the country. Support from China, Iran, and Syria could provide some economic and diplomatic relief to Maduro but is insufficient to offset the lack of recognition and support from most other nations. Security Situation and Popular Reactions Protests, far from abating, have escalated with barricades and violent clashes in several cities. The continued use of lethal force by security forces has not only failed to deter protesters but has also galvanized their determination. The destruction of symbolic public buildings and the rallying of some police officers to the protesters' cause indicate a potential weakening of the cohesion of the security forces and a rise in anarchic violence. Regional and Humanitarian Implications Humanitarian Crisis: The escalation of violence and repression could worsen the humanitarian crisis. Shortages of essential goods, power and water cuts, and the collapse of health services may intensify, pushing more Venezuelans to flee the country. Neighboring countries will have to manage an increased influx of refugees, which could destabilize the region. Regional Destabilization: The unrest in Venezuela could have repercussions across South America. Refugee flows can put additional pressure on the infrastructure and social services of neighboring countries. Furthermore, political and economic instability could foster the emergence of radical movements and cross-border violence. The continued unrest and international rejection of Maduro's presidency signal a challenging path ahead for Venezuela. The potential for escalating violence, deepening humanitarian crises, and regional destabilization necessitates urgent and coordinated international response to mitigate further deterioration. By Tangi KERAUTRET #Internationalrelations #Venezuela #Internationalpolitics #SouthAmerica #Americas #Elections

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[EN] BOLIVIA | POLITICAL CRISES | ALLEGED COUP ATTEMPT Yesterday, Bolivia faced a significant political upheaval as the Bolivian Armed Forces allegedly staged a coup against President Luis Arce. After reporting "irregular mobilizations" on social media, President Arce witnessed military personnel cordon off Plaza Murillo in La Paz and forcefully enter Palacio Quemado, the seat of government. The national government claims to have the situation under control with no major civil unrest reported. This incident comes amidst Bolivia's financial strain due to a shortage of dollars and prolonged diesel reserve declines. The country's general elections, scheduled for August 2025, hang in the balance, depending on the fallout from this alleged coup, international responses, and domestic resistance. Internal Conflicts within MAS: The escalating internal conflicts within the “Movimiento al Socialismo” (MAS) between factions supporting Luis Arce and Evo Morales further complicate the national governance and legislative dynamics. Key Figures: The incursion was led by Army Commander General Juan José Zúñiga, who, after being removed from his post on June 25, declared his intent to form a "new cabinet," stating, "the country's situation cannot continue like this." Government's Response: President Luis Arce, accompanied by his ministerial cabinet, addressed the nation, acknowledging the attempted coup and calling for public mobilization in favor of democracy. Vice President David Choquehuanca and former President Evo Morales echoed these sentiments, urging societal mobilization against the coup attempt. In a decisive move, President Arce appointed José Wilson Sánchez as the new Commander General of the Army. International Reaction: The Organization of American States (OEA) and regional leaders, including the pro tempore president of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, Xiomara Castro, and President Lula Da Silva of Brazil, condemned the actions and called for urgent meetings to discuss the situation and uphold Bolivia's democracy. At Prospectiva Public Affairs LAT.AM, we will continue to monitor this evolving situation closely. Stay tuned for further updates. #Bolivia #CoupAttempt #LuisArce #PoliticalCrisis #ProspectivaLatam

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Turkey’s SCO ambitions represent a delicate diplomatic tightrope This article was originally published by Mercator Institute for China Studies and summarizes a policy brief published by GMF titled “Turkey Looks to China for Security Cooperation Alternatives.” #ankara, #china, #defence, #diplomacy, #eu, #foreignpolicy, #india,  #kashmir, #ladakh, #nato, #Geopolitics,#Geoeconomics #russia, #sco, #southasia, #turkey, #usadiplomacy #DiplomacyMatters

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Declaración de la Delegación Argentina en EWIPA 2024. Conferencia de Oslo sobre armas explosivas en áreas pobladas. 23/04/2024. “It is worth noting that, statistically, the use of explosive weapons in populated areas is a major cause of civilian deaths and injuries in armed conflicts (…) On average, 90 percent of victims of explosive weapons attacks in populated areas are civilians, the majority of whom are women and children. (…) The use of explosive weapons in populated areas also results in the destruction of individual homes and other relevant civilian infrastructure, causing enormous suffering that must be avoided (…) Damage to schools is an element that we particularly emphasize, as Argentina has been a pioneer in the protection of schools against armed attacks, as reflected in the “Safe Schools Declaration” adopted in 2017 (…) The international community must recognize the rights of victims and affected communities and provide the with adequate assistance. There is an opportunity for developing countries, such as Argentina, to help build useful post-conflict capacities within the framework of South-South cooperation (…).

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What are "gray zone" geopolitical attacks? In the coming weeks, I will be discussing in greater detail during a presentation to United States Department of Defense communities on "Irregular Warfare: How to Win Against Illicit Threat Networks in a World of Convergence". I will also be discussing how in today's fragile global order, powers such as China, Iran, Russia, and others, are leveraging, and financing, greater strategic corruption and ecosystems of criminality to advance a multi-polar agenda that challenges longstanding rules of the international system with alternative forms of governance and illicit measures to simultaneously promote authoritarianism and to weaken democracies. These concerted efforts are targeted at the U.S., Europe, and NATO allies to gain advantage over other countries through deliberate campaigns, while also trying to avoid direct war. The Intelligence Community (IC) defines the gray zone as "a realm of international relations between peaceful interstate diplomacy, economic activity, and people-to-people contact on one end of the spectrum, and direct armed conflict on the other. Gray zone campaigns are likely to increase and diversify because of more enabling technologies, the erosion or absence of accompanying norms, challenges with attribution, and perceptions of their advantages." Stay tuned. . . .at: International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE) / ICAIE Labs U.S. Department of State Office of the Director of National Intelligence Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) U.S. Department of Homeland Security #GPC #Greatpowercompetition #hybridwarfares #grayszones #corruption #maligninfluence #organizedcrime #illicittrade #grayzone #threatintelligence #authoritarianism #democracy

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ICJ rejects Nicaragua's application requesting provisional measures to stop German military aid to Israel amidst the current Gaza Conflict Read More Here- https://lnkd.in/gBPe5i4t #InternationalCourtofJustice #GazaConflict #GazaStrip #ICJ #Israel #MiddleEastConflict #militaryaid #NicaraguavGermany #OccupiedPalestinianTerritory #Palestine #provisionalmeasures #scconline #SCC #legalnews #legalknowledge #scctimes #legalblog #legalupdates #lawstudent #legalresearch #legalstudies #surestwaytolegalresearch #bringingyouthebestlegalnews

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Being a former Intelligence Operator AND Counter-Intelligence Agent, "the psychology of terrorism" is a complex field that examines the motivations, behaviors, and psychological processes behind individuals and groups who engage in terrorist acts. Understanding these elements is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies and counter-terrorism measures. I would classify this ACT an INTERVENTION STRATEGY.

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The case of Alejandro Astesiano, former chief of presidential security in Uruguay, has sparked widespread concern about criminal infiltration at the highest levels of government. His involvement in a passport falsification scheme, illegal surveillance, bribery, and money laundering, all conducted from within Uruguay’s Executive Tower, has raised questions about whether this was an isolated case or the corruption runs deeper. In this Q&A with Lucas Silva, author of “The Astesiano Case,” we talk about how deeply organized crime may have infiltrated Uruguay’s public offices and what questions remain unanswered. Read more for insights into Uruguay’s evolving criminal challenges: https://bit.ly/4etDKbG

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The #PRC dangers associated in lesser known areas in Latin America and the #Caribbean are finally getting noticed. #Policymakers are recognizing the national security threats silently brewing up in our first island chain. Hopefully this translates to a wider strategic aperture when considering #DoD resourcing. Only focusing on the Indo-Pacific leaves the #US vulnerable to irregular threats to the #homeland. The US must #compete globally to deter the adversary, while simultaneously preparing the joint force to prevail in #conflict. #Antigua #irregularwarfare #competition Newsweek Irregular Warfare Initiative FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy USSOCOM United States Southern Command

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