John Canning

Great analysis by the AGC team on SaaS public company comps. It's worth a look as we recalibrate mid-way through earnings season. The analysis aligns with the broader Nasdaq equity performance, where the Mag 7 (or fab 4 now :-)) have shown more resilience than the rest of the market. #AGC #SaaS #EarningsSeason #Nasdaq #EquityPerformance

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Great Article – Key points: (1) Interest-Rate Cut Impact: PE deal activity, is still facing challenges such as political uncertainties, weakened corporate performance, and a slow fundraising climate. (2) Already Priced In: Dealmakers indicated that the rate cut had already been factored into transactions over the past several months., (3) Value Creation Over the last two years, many PE firms have improved portfolio company performance by reducing costs and streamlining operations, which could result in higher valuations. (4) Deal Volume Growth: Projections suggest that PE deal volume will pick up in Q4 2024, with an estimated 9% year-over-year increase. This momentum is expected to continue into 2025. (5) Stagnant PE Exits: Despite an increase in US PE deal value (up 12% year-over-year in H1 2024 to $325.2 billion), PE exits remained stagnant, a critical issue as exits are essential for capital formation in the industry.

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Companies are overstaffed and that is going to change fast. Here is how I think it goes down: → Private equity and capital rich companies will take over legacy businesses who have been saddled with inefficient cost structures. The biggest line item on any balance sheet is payroll and that is what gets cut first. → Return to office (RTO) mandates will get louder as it is very seamless way to get staff to quit. We can complain all we want but this is business. There are many great remote first companies out there, apply to them! → The middle management layers and average performers are going to see massive cuts in the next 12 months. Every day I see how top performers at our portfolio are using tools to massively improve their output. Paper pushers and talkers are going to have a hard time finding or keeping a job. → The premium for high performers will increase, especially for those who are able to leverage the new AI tools that massively improve their output ratios. → Strategically augmenting your workforce with offshore talent is going to be massive advantage for companies who are able to systemize this and scale their efforts well. If you are time to fill open seats is in weeks or months, you will be at a massive disadvantage against companies who can scale faster. If you are a business owner, the time to start optimizing your P&L is today. What are you doing to stay ahead of the curve?

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18 Comments

Having a Cars and Capital event tomorrow in Southern California with Oren Klaff. If you want to join message me. https://lnkd.in/gDQ4D39u Oren Klaff Bridger Pennington #InvestorEvent #FamilyOffice #InvestmentOpportunity #CarlsbadEvent #PrivateEquity #WealthManagement #InvestmentConference #CapitalRaising #NetworkingEvent #IndustryLeaders #FinancialGrowth #InvestorsMeetup #WealthBuilding #BusinessGrowth #InvestmentForum

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PE insights - from the latest episode of "Behind the Deal" with Orlando Bravo & Carl Thoma at Thoma Bravo. Great lessons from Orlando Bravo who discusses losing money and making many mistakes early in his career, Carl Thoma (Orlando's mentor): On People: - "PE is a people business." - "Deal-making is such a people business. It's not like you can sell the stock if you don't like it, you're stuck with your partners. " (Good point - unlike public equities investors, you are in it for the long-term, with your team, partners, and your portfolio companies - it's a people business). ------ On Making Mistakes: - “Mistakes are meant to be stepping stones to success - not stepping stones to ultimate failure.” - "People learn from their mistakes." - "Mistakes early on make great investors but you have to make sure you don't make so many mistakes that you lose confidence... and just don't make the same mistakes again". - "When you make mistakes, you have to capitalize on that." ------ On losing money (Orlando asked whether Carl was going to fire him): - "I've sunk $50 million of experience into you, so you are a star now and you've got a lot of good, expensive training." - "I'm not sure you could have been as successful without stumbling a little bit early on." - "You had pride in your work and drive that it didn't put you in a stumper and didn't leave the industry. I think 1 + 1 = 10, drive and some failures are good experience." ------ On Teamwork: - "Just like in sports, today you just cannot have individual players that are brilliant but not working as a team. We got away with that for 25-30 years of private equity, but now it's become too competitive. We've got to function as a team." ------ On communication: - "You can resolve so many issues if you just communicate." ------ Sources: https://lnkd.in/eVk_Wxwq https://lnkd.in/eem_DquZ ------ #pe #privateequity #business #leadership

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Great time on the Embracing Erosion podcast w/Devon O'Rourke! We talked about: 🚀 How to scale a company from concept to 9-figure exit 🔄 How to break away from the traditional consulting model and apply product approaches ⏩ Why it’s important to iterate quickly and often with messaging 💸📈What signals are important to pay attention to when investing in startups and much more!

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Don't call it a comeback - growth equity deals on the rise again per PitchBook. From the attached article: "According to PitchBook’s latest US PE Breakdown, PE growth investments were on the rise in the first half of 2024, accounting for about 23% of all PE deals and surpassing leveraged buyouts, which made up 19%. That reverses a long-time trend. Growth investments in the first half of 2024 are already exceeding those from the whole of 2023, when they accounted for 20% of all PE deals." The heightened cost of capital is obviously driving a lot of this dynamic. However... it is interesting to note that PE funds are seemingly more willing to take minority stakes - a dynamic that is historically more from the VC playbook. The hard truth is that, even in a challenging funding and valuation environment, growth stage companies - both PE-backed and VC-backed - still offer large institutional investors a compelling return profile. A growth-potential profile not often available in the public markets. This dynamic alone will push PE and VC private market investment through and beyond the current challenges... Endeavor Colorado Zeb King Tegan Stanbach Kathryn Dickson #privateequity #venturecapital #entrepreneurship #innovation #founders #startups #investing https://lnkd.in/gKZKwXct

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