Daniel Brown

Recently, someone asked me about the changes in the CPG industry over the years. My response was a lazy "Nothing." Then, I had to back it up with something to soften the shock, so I elaborated. The 'Why' and 'What' has not changed. 1. The fundamental CPG consumer needs have remained the same. Consumers are looking to save time on chores (e.g., cooking, cleaning, personal care, household care, etc.) and spending more on leisure. They are willing to pay the right price for a product that facilitates this. 2. The CPG investor expectations have remained the same. They invest their money in exchange for dividends and capital appreciation. 3. The outcome metrics for CPG CEOs have remained the same. They must help meet investor expectations by generating free cash flow powered by disproportionate revenue and earnings growth. 4. How CPG CEOs achieve the outcomes has remained the same. They meet the needs of the consumers through 'Superior Value Proposition,' 'Superior Mental Availability,' and 'Superior Physical Product Availability.' They enable all of the above through 'Superior Management Operations.' 5. The way management operations are run has fundamentally remained the same. They are run by people collaborating to make effective decisions or efficiently performing value-adding tasks to meet the CEO objectives stated above The only changing factor is the 'How,' around the bases of competition (like price, innovation, quality, etc.) and the technology (where we hear a new buzzword every few years, only to see them disappear after the initial hype fades) that supports a) How people collaborate: workflow platforms like ERP, Teams, B2B portals, etc. b) How decisions are made more effectively using data and intelligence: AI/ML, GenAI, BI/reporting/Dashboards, DSS/Optimization tools c) How people can perform more value-adding tasks: Automation (Intelligent automation, Robotic Process Automation, etc.) d) How they perform their work more efficiently: Data marts, APIs, Cloud, Integration, etc. e) How they do all the above to drive functional and organizational objectives As a business consultant, what matters to me the most is ensuring that regardless of ever-changing buzzwords in technology, they are being meaningfully deployed e) to drive functional and organizational objectives to achieve the fundamentally unchanged consumer, investor, and CEO needs. It’s a win when technology is aligned with the bigger purpose of gaining a competitive advantage on the bases of competition, leading to market share gains. What are your thoughts? #cpg #cpgindustry #consumerproducts

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The Real Magic...over the last four years, has been Coca-Cola's aggressive and smart pricing and price-pack approach across its portfolio. Coca-Cola released its first quarter 2024 results today (Apr 30, 2024). The ongoing positive results on their operating income, as shown in the second page of this doc, is clear. Obviously, other factors also impact operating expenses which in turn impacts operating profit. We can assume that operating expense fluctuations were managed within normal parameters so what we see clearly in this chart is the impact of the pricing increases that were attained. Coca-Cola's results are also illustrative of what has happened with other large and leading CPG companies. Look at 2022 and 2023….and compare it to the periods in 2018 and 2019. Not surprising then how many large CPG incumbent brands used the post COVID period to push through price increases that bolstered their profitability. More importantly, what it has allowed large CPGs to do is to substantially reset the base Price-to-Consumer on shelf. Something that , prior to COVID, they were only able to do incrementally each year to keep up and slightly overcome the let’s say steady 2.5% annual inflation growth pre-COVID. Many emerging CPG brands which tend to operate premium and above premium price tiers, were either not able to… or chose not to increase their pricing to this extent in 2022 and 2023. This means that for some sub-categories the price gaps between premium and mainstream brands would have decreased. This would have provided some short-term sales benefit for emerging CPG brands but given that their input costs had increased it would have still pressurized their profitability. We know now that for 2024 and 2025, price increases are diminishing and that the dynamics could likely revert to the pre-COVID dynamics. The CEOs of large CPG brands are already signaling slower Net Revenue growth patterns and a drive to move volume again for 2024. What you are seeing and what you will see is an aggressive push to drive price promotions off the higher price-to-consumer base that they have attained. They will also increase other non-price Trade and Shopper Marketing spend. Especially digital via #RetailMedia  A silver lining of the tumultuous and devastating COVID and post-COVID inflationary period, has been the renewed focus on the power of pricing. In many ways, pricing has been brought out of the shadows. Pricing power is highly dependent on strong brand equities and momentum. In my view, The Coca-Cola Company is outpacing its peers on this front. This can be seen in the tighter (inelastic) price-elasticity band relative to PepsiCo and Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. beverages portfolio within the US. As mentioned on the call today, Coca-Cola issued guided that their pricing will "get back in balance" as was the norm in the pre-COVID periods. #emergingbrands #cpg #fmcg #cocacola #pricing #revenuemanagement

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CPG Marketing Leaders,   When you’re passionate and driven to make something happen, it’s easy to get too close to it...in life, in politics, and in business.   And, in a performance and outcomes focused marketing world, you need to show clear, measurable results from your brand growth efforts.   But while we Type A leaders are equipped to read both data (looking backward) 📊 and tea leaves 🍵 (looking forward) we don’t change direction on a dime or take big decisions lightly… and we DEFINITELY don’t quit on things.   So, what can happen--and probably has happened to most of us —is 𝘸𝘦 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘢 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵, 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘮, 𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘺𝘦𝘵 𝘩𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘥𝘦, 𝘰𝘳 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘪𝘴𝘯’𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘦𝘯𝘰𝘶𝘨𝘩… 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘸𝘦 𝘞𝘈𝘕𝘛 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘵! It can feel like parting with a favorite sweater that’s stretched out, tossing perfectly broken in sneakers 👟 that have lost all traction, or tossing the tube of lipstick 💄 you’ve been digging into with a Q-tip (maybe that’s just me).   I’m here to say I Get It…and to remind you of the 𝙫𝙖𝙡𝙪𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝𝙩 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙣𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙤 𝙝𝙚𝙡𝙥 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙪𝙜𝙝 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙯𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙧 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙛𝙪𝙡.   Between experience and lack of bias, an external leader can see the facts and data objectively 👀, ensure you and your team are effectively measuring 📏 the outcomes of your efforts, and pinpoint 📌 what needs improvement or reallocation.   And that’s all BEFORE considering the extra set of limbs and 🧠 cells an external partner brings to the table. Not only can you get more S—t done, you can divide➗ and conquer on the toughest questions or challenges.   This clearsighted approach can even make you look super smart to your senior leadership, who might also be overly vested in certain pet ideas. Do you relate to this? If so, tell me…𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗮 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗮 𝗽𝘂𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲?  #consulting #brandstrategy #externalexpertise #insights I'm Elizabeth, and I help consumer marketing leaders harness strategic insights to fuel brand growth and market impact. DM me to learn more about the Trend, Strategy, and Innovation possibilities for your business.    

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"We all carry around expectations of one another. And sometimes, you don’t even know what you expect until someone doesn’t live up to it.” A key takeaway from this article on magical thinking, which offers three tips on how leaders can make sure that their expectations and those of their team are fully aligned. #Leadership #TeamBuilding #MagicalThinking

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In earlier posts Ive discussed the need for savvier pricing approaches to avoid value destruction through over-use of promotions. AI is changing the game here. With budgets tightening, savvy shopping is on the rise. A recent survey from Prosper Insights & Analytics shows that 41% of consumers are now hunting for sales more frequently, while 30% are comparing prices online to find the best deals. It's clear that smart spending is becoming the new norm as we all look for ways to maximize our purchasing power. For retailers and brands alike this creates a clear opportunity to leverage AI to sharpen pricing strategies and drive promotion effectiveness. #artificialintelligence #consumerprices

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CPG brands: You are wrong, distributors are not the problem, nor the enemy of your brand. Quite the opposite in fact. Your problem is a lack of preparation in the necessary business understanding for working within the distribution model. Your lack of preparation and understanding of that model does not constitute blaming the distributor for the poor outcome you experienced. I can’t tell you how many brands over the years have asked me for distributor advice, (ONLY because I have a very long history working on the distribution side at multiple distributors, before ever moving to the brand side, not because I know better than any other brand owner..) My message is almost always the same & what I hear back is almost always the same. Me: “Did you adjust your pricing model to account for the fees and requirements for shipping / logistics and chargebacks that are built within the contract you received and signed?” Brand: (in some form or another of the following) “ I did not want to price myself out of my market, or have to change my pricing in my other channels… and nobody told me that all these fees would actually hit, and some of them I was not aware of” The reality is no one blindsided you. You were unprepared, you are upset and you’re looking for someone to blame. Regardless of what type of founder, entrepreneur, business owner or executive at a CPG company that you are, you must absolutely understand the contracts and financial requirements that you are dealing with AHEAD OF TIME. You don’t have to work with the distributor— in fact as we know, tons of brands work fantastic simply D2C, or direct to retail without them. But if you’re going to work with the distributor networks, be prepared to work within the model. If it helps, I’m happy to answer any questions that I might be able to answer when it comes to distributor model.. feel free to hit me up anytime if I can be of service and I’ll do my best to get back to you with information that is appropriate based on my experience. Rant over, and go have a great day! Lets sell some stuff 😎 #distribution #cpg #branding #wholesale #dietarysupplements #vmisports

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