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Hiring a Finance & Operations Director to join the Novig team in SoHo, NY as we gear up for a nationwide expansion. If you have a passion for sports and markets, strong analytical skills, and a desire to wear many hats, reach out!

When it comes to analytics and model building, sophistication isn't everything. Try focusing less on the complexity of the models themselves and more on: → Formulating the right questions to answer → Developing strong fundamental ideas → Prioritizing quality data inputs over fancy techniques Even the most intricate model will only perform as well as the information you feed it. The true art lies in clearly defining the core problem you're trying to solve. Framing that central question thoughtfully is what guides you to meaningful insights. So resist getting swept up in the allure of elaborate methods and mathematics. Instead, strive for simplicity and clarity of purpose in your work. — How do you balance the technical demands of modeling with strategic thinking? Shoutout to Judah Fortgang, R&D & Betting @ PFF, for joining us on this week’s episode of Linecraft: novig.co/linecraft

On this episode of Linecraft, Jacob Fortinsky was joined by Judah Fortgang, an expert in sports analytics and a professional bettor. With a background in political philosophy and a passion for sports, Judah has carved out a unique niche in the world of sports betting. He currently works in R&D and betting at Pro Football Focus (PFF), where he leverages his analytical skills and deep understanding of football to identify edges in the betting markets. Throughout our conversation, Judah shared his approach to gaining an edge in sports betting by challenging conventional wisdom and looking beyond surface-level trends. By combining rigorous analysis with a willingness to question established norms, Judah has developed a winning strategy that can help bettors at all stages step up their game and get more wins. Here's a glimpse of what gets covered in the episode: - [05:00] The transition from political philosophy to sports analytics - [11:36] Weighing the impact of different positions and player grades - [16:15] Handicapping strategy and building models from first principles - [27:03] Mastering the art of the same game parlay - [32:14] Market taking vs market making: Pros, cons, and the future of exchanges - [39:47] Reflecting on trends and the evolution of football analytics - [44:12] Advice for aspiring analysts: Focus on questions over model complexity - [50:55] Bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season Catch the full episode with Judah Fortgang here: novig.co/linecraft

You can learn a lot about your team by playing poker with them in the office. These casual games give a chance to assess everyone's risk appetite. → Are they aggressive? → Conservative? → Prone to tilting? It all comes out at the poker table. This isn't a groundbreaking idea, by the way. Because the truth is, these games are a window into how people's minds work. What you can learn in a few hands of poker can sometimes say more than a resume ever could. ___ Do you have any surprising methods for evaluating someone's risk tolerance? Don't miss this week's episode of Linecraft for more from guest Isaac Rose-Berman! The full episode is now live at novig.co/linecraft

Isaac Rose-Berman recommended some killer resources for sports bettors on Linecraft this week: Podcasts: → Be Better Bettors → Bet The Process → Avoid The Trap Books: → ‘Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets’ by Nassim Nicholas Taleb → ‘Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts’ by Annie Duke Isaac credits all of these for helping him navigate the world of sports betting. Hopefully they will for you too. — What's your favorite book or podcast about betting? Comment below! Hear more from Isaac Rose-Berman on this week's episode, releasing this Wednesday.

There's a common mistake that many new sports bettors fall into. It's not a lack of knowledge or even picking the wrong winner. The real bankroll killer is overbetting. Someone starts with $1,000 and promptly fires $333.33 on three different games. All it takes is a bad run to send that bankroll up in flames. Even with the sharpest information in the world, betting 30% of your roll on a single game is simply unsustainable. Sure, you might hit a heater and run it up for a while. But eventually, the volatile swings of sports betting will catch up to you. Pros preach a strict diet of risk management and discipline. Build your bankroll slowly and steadily. Wager within your means and live to fight another day. Otherwise, you're just one cold streak away from reloading your account or worse - hanging up the cleats for good. — How do you determine the right amount to risk on a play?

Why do so many bettors leave money on the table? Professional bettor William Krackomberger believes it comes down to priorities. In his view, the price difference between exchanges and traditional books is too big to ignore. — Exchanges typically have just a 2% vig compared to 7-10% at most sportsbooks. That kind of savings can add up fast, especially for high-volume bettors. But for many casual players, a slick interface and enticing promos take precedence over price. Even if the long-term savings would dwarf that $100 signup bonus. Bill is shocked that so many bettors, particularly those under 30, seem indifferent to the price they're paying. He sees betting exchanges as the clear choice for price-sensitive players. But he acknowledges that not everyone prioritizes their bottom line over other factors. — Do you think the popularity of betting exchanges will grow as more bettors become price-conscious, or will the big books always dominate the market? Hear more from Bill on how to maximize your betting value on the next Linecraft, now live at novig.co/linecraft

Why do bettors flock to higher-priced books over lower-cost exchanges? On the surface, it seems like an easy call to use a cheaper exchange. → Save money on every bet → Increase your ROI → Have a better shot at profitability But for many casual bettors, the decision isn't so clear-cut. Here’s why: The issue of bet size If you're only risking a few bucks per wager, saving a dime here and there might not move the needle. The convenience and user experience of a slick sportsbook app could easily outweigh any potential savings. The allure of novel betting options Same game parlays, long-shot props, you name it. Exchanges often struggle to support these lottery-style bets due to liquidity constraints. And if a bettor can't place the wager they want, the price advantage loses its value. So while industry insiders may scratch their heads, the average joe's choice makes sense. They want a one-stop-shop that's easy to use and offers every bet imaginable. Even if that means paying a slight premium. Convenience is king. And right now, the major books have exchanges beat in that department. — How much does price factor into your sportsbook selection? Would you sacrifice bet variety for a better price?

If you haven’t heard of William Krackomberger, check this out: → Bill grew up on the East Coast, where gambling was a big part of the culture → He learned about advantage gambling from his cousin, a skilled card counter → He made his first significant profits playing poker in the late 80s and early 90s But with a track record of beating the books, success comes at a price. Bill has been banned from countless sportsbooks over his career. His crime? Using his brain to spot and exploit market inefficiencies. Sportsbooks claim to love winners, but Bill knows better. He calls out casinos for their "We love winners!" billboards. — "Stations throws people out if they win long term," he reveals. "I'm one of them." It's a needed reminder that despite the glossy ads, sportsbooks are in the business of making money. And while they may tolerate the occasional winner, consistent success is often met with limits and bans. — Have you ever had your betting limits cut or been banned? How did you adapt? Hear more of Bill's sharp insights on the latest Linecraft, out this Wednesday!

As much as we'd like to hope everyone's playing by the rules in sports betting, they’re just not. Unfortunately, the bad apples are spoiling the barrel for the rest of us. Eric Frank, President at IC360 sees the writing on the wall. He knows it's only a matter of time before regulators are forced to step in. They'll be playing catch-up, scrambling to figure out how to rein in the gaming landscape. And the rest of us will be left to deal with the fallout. But Eric's not giving up hope. He's banking on more innovators who are dedicated to building products that have real substance. → Unique ideas that push the envelope → Engaging experiences that keep players coming back → All while coloring inside the lines of what regulators expect It's a tough but necessary balance to strike. If anyone can pull it off, he says, it's this new breed of gaming entrepreneurs. The ones who understand that success isn't just about short-term gains. It's about creating something that even regulators can point to with pride and say, "Hey, they're doing it right." — Do you think the actions of a few bad actors will spoil things for the whole gaming industry? Hear more of Eric Frank's takes on the future of gaming on this week’s Linecraft, now live at novig.co/linecraft